# Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 98 – 109 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows peck holes in Western Bulldogs in a tight one._

Half time: 45 – 64 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 50% / Adelaide Crows 50% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 12 July, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton (10' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ed Richards (39' ×2), Cooper Hynes (54'), Sam Darcy (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Davidson (76'), Final quarter (32m 25s)Ryley Sanders (65'), Rhylee West (80' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Bramble (84'), James ODonnell (94') · Adelaide Crows: Darcy Fogarty (7' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Daniel Curtin (8'), Isaac Cumming (22'), Jordan Dawson (34'), Riley Thilthorpe (35' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (50' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (96' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 50% | Lost |
| Adelaide Crows | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.8 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 98–109 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 18 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seventeen marks inside 50 to nine. That's the shape of it right there: Adelaide Crows went to Marvel Stadium and doubled up the Western Bulldogs on the one stat that actually puts points on the board, and they left with a 109-98 win to show for it.

The Bulldogs didn't get bullied everywhere. They won the clearance count 43 to 35 and had more inside 50s overall, 55 to 52. But getting the ball forward and doing something with it are two different jobs, and Adelaide's the side that finished the second one. Disposal efficiency told the same story: Crows at 77.2%, Bulldogs at 72.2%. Every entry that actually stuck through the air, Adelaide was cashing in on it.

The scoreboard had this settled well before the final siren. Adelaide led 26-19 at quarter time, then blew it out to 64-45 by half time and 93-66 at the last change. The Bulldogs actually outscored them in the last quarter, 32 to 16, which says something about the fight in that group, but a 27-point break at three-quarter time was always going to be too much to chase down in one term.

Marks were the other gulf, 105 to 88 overall, and hit-outs went the Crows' way too, 44 to 33. That ruck dominance lines up with the pre-match read: Adelaide were rated stronger in the ruck, 1075 to 1051, the one area where the ladder favoured them coming in. Everywhere else on paper this looked like a Bulldogs side with the edge, forwards rated 1077 to 975, midfield 1043 to 995, even defence marginally in their favour at 1079 to 1061. None of it showed up where it counted.

Tackle pressure went to Adelaide as well, 61 to 51, and they came out ahead on intercepts too, 68 to 64. Contested possessions were closer, 142 to 131 in the Bulldogs' favour, but volume of the ball didn't translate into scoreboard pressure the way clean marking inside 50 did for Adelaide.

Form-wise this was Adelaide's game to have. They'd been winning more of their last five, averaging 85.5 points a game to the Bulldogs' 80.1, and conceding under 69 compared to the Bulldogs' near 81. That defensive number showed up again here, even in a shootout that blew past expectations.

Alphr's model backed Adelaide Crows to win and got that half right, calling it at 50% probability. The margin was the miss: tipped at 7.8 points, it landed at 11. The total was the bigger surprise, projected at 174 and finishing at 207, thirty-three points over. A high-scoring track meet at Marvel Stadium, and the model's price on it undercooked how open this one would get. One from three on this match, and the sort of scoreline that reminds you why the total is never the safe part of the ticket.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 19 | 26 | 21 | 32 | 98 |
| Adelaide Crows | 26 | 38 | 29 | 16 | 109 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| **353** | Disposals | 345 |
| **142** | Contested poss. | 131 |
| **43** | Clearances | 35 |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| 88 | Marks | **105** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| 51 | Tackles | **61** |
| 33 | Hit-outs | **44** |
| 64 | Intercepts | **68** |
| 72.2% | Disposal eff. | **77.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 207 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 174. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $2.55 (edge +11.1%) — model probability 50.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 8 · Predicted total: 174

### H2H History (Last 5) — Adelaide Crows lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QE | Adelaide Crows | 90 – 68 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2026 | R14 | Western Bulldogs | 64 – 121 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2026 | R2 | Adelaide Crows | 88 – 94 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R22 | Adelaide Crows | 111 – 72 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R10 | Western Bulldogs | 85 – 40 | Adelaide Crows |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 129 · 128 | 165 · 108 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 93/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.4/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.9/g | 8.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 66.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 94 · 44 | 59 · 38 |
| Goal Assists | 6.4/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 179/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 31.1/g | 24.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.5% | 68.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 16 | 9 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.4/g | 10.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 79.3% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.37/g (lg 1.28) +7% · Midfielders 2.34/g (lg 2.38) -2% · Forwards 4.27/g (lg 4.44) -4%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.51/g (lg 2.38) +5% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.58) -6% · Forwards 3.9/g (lg 4.44) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 31 in 16g | 20/10g (1·3·0·1·3·0·3·1·3·5) | 11/6g | 117/73g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 12' 77' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 29 in 10g | 29/10g (1·4·2·5·2·0·3·5·3·4) | 1/1g | 33/19g | 83% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' 88' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 24 in 16g | 17/10g (3·2·2·4·1·0·1·2·1·1) | 1/4g | 38/37g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 19 in 16g | 14/10g (2·0·3·1·3·1·2·0·2·0) | 3/8g | 30/43g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 14 in 11g | 12/10g (0·3·1·2·0·0·0·3·1·2) | 11/11g | 144/129g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 13 in 16g | 11/10g (1·2·1·2·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 24/65g | 52% | — | 🏉 39' 41' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·4·1) | 0/0g | 5/15g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 13 in 14g | 8/10g (0·0·2·1·2·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 22/37g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 11 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/16g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 10 in 16g | 10/10g (1·3·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·2) | 4/5g | 44/68g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 9 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 56% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/11g | 44/118g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 10/9g | 50/85g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 21/78g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 29% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/23g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/26g | 14% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 35/41g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 38/97g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Poulter | FWD | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/13g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/24g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Riley Garcia | MID | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (2·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 8/18g | 31% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 33 in 16g | 17/10g (3·1·3·0·2·2·1·0·5·0) | 2/1g | 5/5g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 37' 48' 62' 81' 71' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 31 in 15g | 15/10g (0·2·3·4·1·2·0·0·1·2) | 7/5g | 16/8g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 16' 74' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 27 in 16g | 15/10g (0·2·2·0·1·3·3·2·0·2) | 5/6g | 21/16g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 24 in 15g | 12/10g (2·2·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·2) | 24/11g | 50/20g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' 74' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 22 in 16g | 15/10g (1·2·2·1·1·1·0·1·1·5) | 5/6g | 9/6g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 96' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 11 in 16g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/13g | 11/20g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 10 in 16g | 8/10g (0·3·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 11/15g | 38% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/9g | 26% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/12g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 2 in 8g | 5/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | no games | 7/10g (0·1·2·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Chayce Jones | DEF | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/26g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | 26.5 | $1.65 | 66% | 21 ✓ |
| Tom Liberatore ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.98 | 72% | 29 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 37 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 23.5 | $1.98 | 60% | 6 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders | 19.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 16 ✓ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 14 ✓ |
| Tim English | 16.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 20 ✗ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 25.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 22 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 27 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $2.00 | 61% | 12 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 19.5 | $2.00 | 57% | 21 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo | 18.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 22 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine | 18.5 | $1.67 | 56% | 18 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 18.5 | $1.77 | 61% | 12 ✓ |
| Ben Keays | 17.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)