AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 207 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 174. The model went 1/3 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
50%
Adelaide Crows
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Adelaide Crows a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Adelaide Crows counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 52-point ELO rating advantage (1572 vs 1520). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 7.8 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.1%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+11.1%
Total Points
Under 183.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W W L L | 80.1 |
Adelaide Crows | W W W W L | 85.5 |
Avg Conceded
80.9
Western Bulldogs
68.7
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
8.9
Western Bulldogs
4.8
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
368.7
Western Bulldogs
363.6
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
45.8
Western Bulldogs
43.1
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: +7.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.23
Team Effectiveness
-0.11
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.