AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 33.6 but the actual margin was 5 points. The game's 179 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 156. Sydney Swans trailed 46–36 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 87–92. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
12%
Sydney Swans
88%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 88%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. St Kilda are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Recent form favours St Kilda with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 33.6 points with a combined total of 156.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
+27.0%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+27.0%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | W W W L L | 77.1 |
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 83.0 |
Avg Conceded
74.2
St Kilda
87.7
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
10.7
St Kilda
0.5
Sydney Swans
Disposals
362.7
St Kilda
354.4
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
54.9
St Kilda
44.3
Sydney Swans
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Kilda hold the ELO advantage (1502 vs 1493), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.63).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
88%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 34 points
Predicted total: 156 · Line: -33.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
-0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
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