# St Kilda v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 87 – 92 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans fight back to glide past St Kilda._

Half time: 46 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 12% / Sydney Swans 88% · Marvel Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Jack Sinclair (9'), Jack Steele (29'), Hugh Boxshall (31'), Cooper Sharman (49' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (61' ×3), Hugo Garcia (75'), Mitch Owens (93' Tipped ⚡), Rowan Marshall (87') · Sydney Swans: Hayden McLean (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Isaac Heeney (11' Tipped ⚡), Jack Buller (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jake Lloyd (14' ×3), Will Hayward (74' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Angus Sheldrick (86'), James Rowbottom (68'), James Jordon (72'), Errol Gulden (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 88% | Won |
| St Kilda | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 33.6 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 87–92 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 18 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda did most things right on paper. More the ball, 356 disposals to 314. More it won in close, 136 contested possessions to 125. More looks forward, 56 inside 50s to 48, and more grabs generally with 89 marks to Sydney's 78. By three-quarter time it had banked a 13-point lead, 74 to 61, built on exactly that kind of territory and pressure, 73 tackles worth of it.

Then the last quarter happened. St Kilda managed just 13 points in the final term while Sydney piled on 31, the difference between a 13-point buffer at the last change and a 5-point loss at the death. The volume stats didn't change, St Kilda still finished well on top of the disposal count and the clearance-adjacent metrics, but none of it mattered when the scoreboard swung the other way in the only quarter that counted most.

Two numbers explain a lot of it. Sydney's ruck division dominated, 52 hit-outs to 23, a rout that lines up with the pre-match rating gap in that department, 1021 to 948 in Sydney's favour, the one positional category St Kilda didn't hold an edge in. And when Sydney did get it forward, it made it count: 14 marks inside 50 to St Kilda's 9, clean, direct, efficient. That efficiency showed everywhere, Sydney using it at 76.5% compared to St Kilda's 70.0%, which is how a team can lose the raw disposal count by 42 and still find 92 points.

Sydney went in as the form side by most of the pre-match reads that matter for output, not results. Its last-five scoring average, 83.0 points, sat above St Kilda's 77.1, even though its defensive average was leakier, 87.7 conceded to St Kilda's 74.2, and its average margin over that stretch was next to nothing, 0.5 points, against St Kilda's healthy 10.7. Sydney also carried the stronger forward and midfield ratings gap in reverse, trailing St Kilda in both, 966 to 994 in the middle and 975 to 998 up forward, and well behind in defence, 959 to 1037. On paper it should have been a St Kilda arm-wrestle. The ruck numbers and the last-quarter efficiency said otherwise.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 24 | 22 | 28 | 13 | 87 |
| Sydney Swans | 33 | 3 | 25 | 31 | 92 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| **356** | Disposals | 314 |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 125 |
| 34 | Clearances | **35** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **89** | Marks | 78 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| **73** | Tackles | 68 |
| 23 | Hit-outs | **52** |
| **66** | Intercepts | 64 |
| 70.0% | Disposal eff. | **76.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 33.6 but the actual margin was 5 points. The game's 179 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 156. Sydney Swans trailed 46–36 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 87–92. The model went 2/3 on this match. Sydney Swans covered the 8.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.63 (edge +27.0%) — model probability 88.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 34 · Predicted total: 156

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 117 · 140 | 96 · 128 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 72/g | 103/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 16.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.8/g | 7.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 68.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 42 · 63 | 68 · 52 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 166/g | 140/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.6/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.1/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.3% | 66.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 11 | 16 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 12.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.2% | 76.5% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.59/g (lg 0.51) +16% · Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.38) +1% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.43) -1%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.38) +3% · Key Forwards 3.43/g (lg 3.59) -4% · Forwards 4.06/g (lg 4.43) -8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 33 in 16g | 16/10g (3·1·2·5·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 10/8g | 88/61g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 79% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 20 in 14g | 14/10g (1·4·2·1·3·0·1·1·0·1) | 5/4g | 41/35g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' 83' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 20 in 15g | 9/10g (0·3·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/3g | 47/40g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 93' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 16 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·1·3·0·0) | 7/7g | 81/77g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 16 in 16g | 10/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·0·1·1·3) | 0/0g | 7/9g | 69% | — | 🏉 61' 64' 70' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 9 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 7/46g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 7 in 5g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·0·4·0·2·1·0) | 10/9g | 68/60g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 7 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 39/105g | 28% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/8g | 44/75g | 42% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/17g | 20/79g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 7/36g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 21/27g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 13% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 38/95g | 18% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 10/57g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/15g | 28/131g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 5/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/74g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/39g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Heath | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 22 in 16g | 16/10g (1·1·0·2·3·1·1·2·5·0) | 16/12g | 42/29g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 21 in 16g | 11/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·1·3·0·1) | 12/9g | 38/26g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 76' 80' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 19 in 13g | 13/10g (2·1·1·1·1·2·1·1·0·3) | 0/2g | 11/11g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 16 in 16g | 9/10g (2·0·0·2·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 3/5g | 14/10g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 11 in 16g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 7/11g | 38% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 9 in 16g | 9/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·2) | 0/4g | 1/11g | 38% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 8 in 16g | 7/10g (3·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/7g | 3/17g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Francis | KF | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·3·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 8/20g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 5 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/10g | 10/30g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/13g | 2/31g | 22% | — | 🏉 14' 22' 72' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 3/15g | 24% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 5/12g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/21g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 11/13g | 46% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 1 in 2g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 88' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 7/27g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 8/12g | 26% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 25.5 | $1.77 | 34% | 24 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair | 25.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 22 ✓ |
| Jack Macrae | 24.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Steele | 21.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 25 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 20.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 23 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 19.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 36 ✗ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 15 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.76 | 50% | 23 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 16.5 | $1.78 | 35% | 16 ✓ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.94 | 78% | 23 ✓ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.82 | 76% | 19 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 22.5 | $1.96 | 60% | 21 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 23 ✗ |
| Chad Warner | 21.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 20 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney | 20.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 20 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 20.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 15 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 20 ✗ |
| Matt Roberts | 18.5 | $1.87 | 41% | 18 ✓ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 18 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)