# Richmond v Essendon — AFL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 46 – 37 Essendon

_Richmond roar back to topple Essendon._

Half time: 23 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 77% / Essendon 23% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Sam Banks (11'), Taj Hotton (13'), Jayden Short (29'), Tim Taranto (63'), Jacob Hopper (72'), Jonty Faull (76' Tipped ⚡) · Essendon: Sam Durham (3' 1st), Elijah Tsatas (18'), Nate Caddy (20' Tipped ⚡), Archie May (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 77% | Won |
| Essendon | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.2 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 46–37 Essendon in AFL Round 18 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nineteen points to three. That's what Richmond did to Essendon in the last quarter at the MCG, and it's the only number that matters in a 46-37 win that looked like a loss for three quarters.

Because for most of the afternoon, this was Essendon's game. They led 34-27 at three-quarter time, having been in front since half-time when they nosed ahead 24-23. Richmond had actually led at the first change, 22-18, so the lead swapped hands twice before the Tigers finally put it away with a final term that Essendon simply had no answer for.

The turnaround wasn't about winning the ball more. Essendon actually finished with the higher inside 50 count, 55 to 46, and their ruck division dominated all day, 40 hit-outs to 28. Going into the game Richmond's ruck rating sat at 1003 against Essendon's 966, and on paper that looked like an edge. It didn't show up in the hit-out count at all. Essendon won that battle comfortably and it still wasn't enough.

What decided it was what each side did with the ball once they had it. Richmond piled up 381 disposals to 349 and won the contested footy 129 to 117, numbers that lean on their 1021-to-975 midfield edge coming in. Their disposal efficiency, 71.2% to Essendon's 69.6%, meant more of that possession actually went somewhere useful. Add marks, 113 to 86, and marks inside 50, 10 to 8, and you've got a side that controlled territory through clean hands rather than raw entries.

Essendon's method was pressure. They tackled more, 56 to 50, and intercepted more, 72 to 66, which is usually the profile of a team that defends its way into a contest. For three quarters it worked, and their defensive rating of 1016 against Richmond's 1010 suggested a genuinely even contest at that end. But pressure without scoring efficiency only holds for so long, and in the final quarter it didn't hold at all.

Richmond came into the game with the better midfield and ruck ratings but a slightly worse defence, and an average margin from their last five of just 1.07 points, practically a coin flip. Essendon arrived with a worse average margin, minus 8.28, despite a better recent win record. None of that fully explained a seven-point third-term deficit turning into a nine-point win, but it's the kind of finish you get when the side with more efficient use of the ball finally starts using it.

The model had Richmond at 77% to win and picked the margin at 5.2, not far off the final gap of 9. It also picked the total under what actually happened, tipping 159 combined points against an 83-point reality, a difference of 76. That's the sharpest kind of miss, the kind that still lands the result and the shape of the margin while getting the total wildly wrong. Three from three on the picks that mattered, and a scoreline that only makes sense once you look at what happened after the three-quarter time siren.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 22 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 46 |
| Essendon | 18 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 37 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **381** | Disposals | 349 |
| **129** | Contested poss. | 117 |
| 31 | Clearances | **33** |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| **113** | Marks | 86 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 50 | Tackles | **56** |
| 28 | Hit-outs | **40** |
| 66 | Intercepts | **72** |
| **71.2%** | Disposal eff. | 69.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Richmond to win at 77% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Richmond by 5.2 vs the actual margin of 9 points. The game's 83 points came in 76 points lower than the predicted 159. Richmond trailed 23–24 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 46–37. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $3.30 (edge +47.0%) — model probability 77.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +47.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 5 · Predicted total: 159

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 98 · 149 | 86 · 136 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 80/g | 104/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.1/g | 15.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.1/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.8% | 67.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 62 | 60 · 48 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 152/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.8/g | 22.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.6% | 72.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 24 | 12 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 130/g | 128/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.4/g | 9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.3% | 78.9% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.54/g (lg 1.28) +20% · Forwards 5.03/g (lg 4.43) +14% · Key Forwards 3.89/g (lg 3.6) +8%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.65/g (lg 3.6) +29% · Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Midfielders 2.77/g (lg 2.39) +16%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 21 in 16g | 10/10g (0·1·2·3·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 16/21g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 10 in 13g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·3) | 3/2g | 25/39g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 10 in 16g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·2·2·1·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 29/46g | 44% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/13g | 32/111g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 2/7g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 26/88g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/19g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/46g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 4 in 6g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 16/26g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 7/36g | 22% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/22g | 11% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 29/85g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/15g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 17/99g | 12% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/36g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Koschitzke | KF | no games | 10/10g (1·2·0·2·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 5/4g | 26/27g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.98 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/89g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 16/137g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 20 in 11g | 14/10g (2·0·0·1·2·2·3·2·1·1) | 8/6g | 51/31g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 18 in 15g | 14/10g (2·2·3·0·1·2·0·0·1·3) | 1/2g | 5/10g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·2·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 22/30g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 34/77g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 5/8g | 9/16g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 10/30g | 44% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Archer May | KF | 5 in 3g | 5/3g (0·2·3) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 6/17g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (3·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/1g | 3/3g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 7/41g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 11/29g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/31g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 6/53g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 12/43g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/33g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oskar Smartt | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 24.5 | $1.98 | 42% | 34 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 24.5 | $1.95 | 42% | 27 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 22.5 | $1.99 | 36% | 28 ✗ |
| Sam Banks | 21.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 20 ✓ |
| Jayden Short | 20.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 25 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 19.5 | $1.98 | 49% | 23 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 18.5 | $1.80 | 53% | 21 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 17.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 18 ✗ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh | 15.5 | $1.85 | 62% | 20 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 31 ✓ |
| Nic Martin ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 5 ✓ |
| Archie Roberts | 24.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 31 ✗ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 22 ✓ |
| Jordan Ridley ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.88 | 36% | 22 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.87 | 42% | 17 ✓ |
| Will Setterfield | 21.5 | $1.97 | 46% | 18 ✓ |
| Elijah Tsatas ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 90% | 19 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 19.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)