# Port Adelaide v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 87 – 61 West Coast Eagles

_Port Adelaide rally to deny West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 36 – 47 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 73% / West Coast Eagles 27% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 13 July, 04:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Miles Bergman (23'), Mitch Georgiades (52' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Byrne-Jones (56' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Joe Richards (76'), Travis Boak (79'), Jason Horne-Francis (83' ×2) · West Coast Eagles: Bailey Williams (4' 1st), Tyrell Dewar (8'), Jack Williams (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tyler Brockman (19'), Harley Reid (30'), Matt Flynn (33'), Liam Baker (45'), Jobe Shanahan (91' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 73% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 22.4 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide vs West Coast Eagles Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 87–61 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 18 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

West Coast had this game for three quarters, then didn't. They led 39-14 at quarter time, 47-36 at the main break, and were still up 60-54 heading into the final change at Adelaide Oval. Then it fell apart. Port Adelaide ran out 87-61 winners by piling on 33 points in the last term while West Coast could only manage 1.

That's the result in a line, but the Eagles didn't lose this through carelessness. They were the cleaner side with ball in hand all day, hitting targets at 71.0% to Port's 66.5%, and they out-marked Port comfortably, 87 to 70. They even edged the intercept count, 58 to 57. None of it mattered once Port started winning the ball in the middle.

And Port won plenty of it. 53 clearances to 26 isn't a contest, it's a rout, and it fed everything else Port did well. They had 129 contested possessions to West Coast's 110, tackled harder at 68 to 61, and shaded the hit-outs 48 to 43. All that grunt work in the guts of the ground let Port push forward more often, 52 inside 50s to 46, and once there they made it count, landing 13 marks inside 50 to West Coast's 8. Disposals finished 329 to 312 in Port's favour too, so for all the Eagles' cleaner ball use, Port simply had more of it and used it where it hurt.

The scoreboard through the first three quarters tells you West Coast weren't just hanging on. They were the better side for the better part of an hour and a half of football. A 25-point buffer at quarter time, still up by 11 at half time, still in front by 6 at the final change. Then the roof caved in. Whatever Port changed after three-quarter time, it worked instantly and completely, because West Coast went from leading by 6 to losing by 26 in the space of one quarter.

Alphr's model had this one largely right before a ball was kicked. Port Adelaide came in rated 1536 to West Coast's 1497, with Port favoured by 22.4 points and a combined score of 151 projected. The final margin was 26, within striking distance of that number, and the actual total of 148 landed within 3 points of the forecast. Port were given a 73% win probability, and all three of the model's headline picks, the winner, the margin and the total, hit.

The underlying form lines make the third-quarter capitulation even more jarring for West Coast. Coming in, the Eagles had the better average margin over their last five games by a wide stretch, and were scoring more freely than Port on paper. Port's rankings in midfield and ruck strength were the standout numbers before the game, and that's exactly where the match was decided. West Coast's forward and defensive ratings were both marginally ahead of Port's, and for three quarters that showed up in cleaner disposal and better marking. But strength at the coalface wins finals footy in the AFL, and once Port took control of clearances and contested ball, West Coast had no way back. The Eagles did most things well for most of the day. They just didn't do the one thing that mattered for long enough.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 14 | 22 | 18 | 33 | 87 |
| West Coast Eagles | 39 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 61 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **329** | Disposals | 312 |
| **129** | Contested poss. | 110 |
| **53** | Clearances | 26 |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| 70 | Marks | **87** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| **68** | Tackles | 61 |
| **48** | Hit-outs | 43 |
| 57 | Intercepts | **58** |
| 66.5% | Disposal eff. | **71.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 73% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Port Adelaide by 22.4 vs the actual margin of 26 points. Total score prediction of 151 was close to the actual 148, within 3 points. Port Adelaide trailed 36–47 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 87–61. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.06 (edge -21.0%) — model probability 73.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -45.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 22 · Predicted total: 151

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 121 · 133 | 114 · 166 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 102/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.6/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 7.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.6% | 66.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 50 | 28 · 58 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 145/g | 91/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.9/g | 13.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 70.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 27 · 22 | 7 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 106/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.8/g | 12.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.4% | 74.4% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.81/g (lg 0.51) +59% · Midfielders 3.39/g (lg 2.35) +44% · Key Forwards 4.61/g (lg 3.59) +28%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.46/g (lg 1.28) +14% · Forwards 4.54/g (lg 4.47) +2% · Midfielders 2.27/g (lg 2.35) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 42 in 16g | 27/10g (2·1·2·1·3·1·7·1·5·4) | 3/2g | 88/47g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' 85' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 25 in 15g | 18/10g (3·1·2·0·2·2·1·1·3·3) | 3/2g | 60/35g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 16 in 15g | 11/10g (3·0·2·1·0·0·2·1·2·0) | 3/12g | 42/116g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' 68' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 11 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 33/37g | 66% | — | 🏉 83' 88' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 10 in 15g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 7/9g | 53% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 8 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 76/79g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (1·1·3·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 17/14g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 14/55g | 20% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 4 in 3g | 13/10g (2·1·2·2·0·0·2·1·0·3) | 4/7g | 4/7g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 8/27g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/5g | 24/58g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/14g | 54/133g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/15g | 64/132g | 28% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/17g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 10/69g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Jackson | FWD | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 7/40g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 30/72g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/61g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/15g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Mani Liddy | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Lorenz | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 16 in 14g | 11/10g (1·1·1·2·3·1·0·1·0·1) | 16/14g | 28/15g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (2·0·3·1·1·2·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.37 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 67' |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 10 in 13g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 2/3g | 48% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 9 in 14g | 7/10g (0·3·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (2·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 39% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·0·3·0·1) | 1/3g | 3/10g | 28% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 3/4g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $19.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 91' |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 29% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 6/15g | 32% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Malakai Champion | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.82 | 68% | 38 ✗ |
| Connor Rozee | 28.5 | $1.92 | 51% | 15 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.94 | 67% | 25 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 22.5 | $1.83 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 13 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 20.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 27 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 9 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 13 ✓ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.92 | 86% | 21 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 68% | 21 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 21.5 | $1.84 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Tyrell Dewar ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 89% | 15 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 27 ✗ |
| Brady Hough ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.82 | 68% | 9 ✓ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 69% | 14 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric | 17.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)