Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
93%
North Melbourne
7%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Melbourne carry a 79-point ELO rating advantage (1515 vs 1436). Recent form favours Melbourne with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 45.7 points with a combined total of 190.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.20
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.9%
Line / Spread
Melbourne -28.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.9%
Total Points
Over 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W W W L | 72.5 |
North Melbourne | W L L L L | 98.7 |
Avg Conceded
66.3
Melbourne
67.0
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
-5.3
Melbourne
3.6
North Melbourne
Disposals
346.7
Melbourne
352.9
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
45.3
Melbourne
50.6
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Melbourne predicted to win by 46 points
Predicted total: 190 · Line: +45.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.25
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.