# Melbourne v North Melbourne — AFL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 119 – 83 North Melbourne

_Melbourne see off North Melbourne._

Half time: 41 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 93% / North Melbourne 7% · MCG · Sun, 13 July, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Kysaiah Pickett (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Bayley Fritsch (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jake Melksham (25' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Matthew Jefferson (33' Tipped ⚡), Ed Langdon (35'), Kade Chandler (42' ×2), Max Gawn (67'), Jacob van Rooyen (92' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (41m 35s)Jake Melksham (61'), Koltyn Tholstrup (67'), Tom Sparrow (82'), Christian Petracca (93') · North Melbourne: Cooper Harvey (15' ×4), Jack Darling (20' ×2), Paul Curtis (21' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cameron Zurhaar (73' ×3 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 93% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 45.7 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Melbourne 119–83 North Melbourne in AFL Round 18 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Melbourne had it, North Melbourne had a go with it. That's the split that decided this one at the MCG, where Melbourne ran out winners 119 to 83.

Look at the raw ball movement and you'd think North Melbourne had the better night. They finished with more disposals, 344 to 341, and won the clearance count 41 to 40. On paper that's a midfield doing its job. But footy isn't won on volume alone, it's won on what you do with the ball once you've got it, and that's where the gap opened up.

Melbourne controlled territory and turned it into scoreboard pressure. They won contested possession 128 to 108, went inside 50 fifty-two times to North's forty-four, and once they got there they made it count, 19 marks inside 50 against North's 12. North Melbourne had the ball plenty. Melbourne had it where it mattered.

The arc of the game tells the story too. North Melbourne actually led at the first break, 26 to 21, all that early ambition paying off in the short term. Melbourne settled and flipped it by half time, 41 to 36, a ten-point-to-nil term in their favour across the second quarter. Then the third quarter is where it really got away from North Melbourne, Melbourne piling on 34 to their 23 to lead 75-59 at the last change. The final quarter was just more of the same medicine, Melbourne adding 44 to North's 24 to close it out at 119-83. Once Melbourne found their groove in that second term, North Melbourne never got the margin back under control.

The ruck battle is worth a mention on its own. Melbourne won hit-outs 37 to 26, and with a ruck rating of 1041 against North's 890 coming in, that's not exactly a shock. First use of the ball matters, and Melbourne had first use more often than not.

North Melbourne weren't without shape. They tackled harder, 56 to Melbourne's 52, and their disposal efficiency at 75.5 per cent wasn't far off Melbourne's 77.6. The problem was never really their work rate. It was that all that pressure and possession didn't translate into forward-half dominance, and their intercept count, 44 to Melbourne's 49, shows Melbourne was just as happy to take the ball back off them.

Form lines back up what played out. Melbourne came in having won 3.6 of their last five on average against North's 1.5, and North's recent scoring average of 98.7 points a game didn't show up here, not against a Melbourne defence rated 1011 to North's 984.

Alphr's model had Melbourne at 93 per cent to win and picked a 45.7-point margin against a combined total of 190. The final result, 36 points and a total of 202, landed close enough to call it a clean read. All three picks for this one hit, and on a night where one side controlled the ball and the other side controlled the game, that's not much of a surprise.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 21 | 20 | 34 | 44 | 119 |
| North Melbourne | 26 | 10 | 23 | 24 | 83 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Disposals | **344** |
| **128** | Contested poss. | 108 |
| 40 | Clearances | **41** |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| **97** | Marks | 89 |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| 52 | Tackles | **56** |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 26 |
| **49** | Intercepts | 44 |
| **77.6%** | Disposal eff. | 75.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Melbourne to win at 93% probability. The predicted margin of 45.7 was reasonable against the actual 36-point result. Melbourne led 41–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.20 (edge +9.9%) — model probability 93.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne -28.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 46 · Predicted total: 190

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 96 · 143 | 107 · 169 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 88/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.6/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.8% | 69.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 64 · 44 | 32 · 44 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.6/g | 19.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 72.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 27 | 45 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 11/g | 13.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81% | 78.4% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.51) +33% · Key Forwards 4.69/g (lg 3.6) +30% · Forwards 5.74/g (lg 4.43) +30%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.51) +31% · Defenders 1.42/g (lg 1.28) +11% · Midfielders 2.28/g (lg 2.38) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 29 in 13g | 22/10g (1·1·2·2·5·0·3·3·3·2) | 13/6g | 93/58g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 20 in 12g | 19/10g (0·0·1·4·3·1·1·0·5·4) | 13/11g | 88/85g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 75' 64' 72' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 19 in 15g | 16/10g (2·2·0·1·2·1·3·2·2·1) | 20/8g | 129/79g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 70' 71' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 13 in 16g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 94/102g | 60% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 11 in 16g | 5/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 10/4g | 34/42g | 48% | — | 🏉 42' 86' |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 23/55g | 38% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 8 in 9g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·2) | 5/4g | 41/31g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 92' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/2g | 11/15g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 26/68g | 36% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 23/102g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/13g | 60/120g | 34% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 5/59g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/18g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 34/116g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/40g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/10g | 33% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Matthew Jefferson | KF | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 16/98g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/13g | 78/127g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/67g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/33g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 29 in 16g | 20/10g (2·2·2·4·3·2·0·3·0·2) | 15/7g | 19/7g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' 77' 81' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 26 in 13g | 18/10g (2·2·3·3·1·3·0·2·1·1) | 4/5g | 4/5g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 30' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 13 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 39/18g | 58/29g | 62% | — | 🏉 20' 74' |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 10 in 16g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 4/11g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 11/16g | 24/39g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 3/5g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/8g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | 1 in 1g | 2/4g (1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 15' 69' 76' 95' |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 3/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Phillips | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.83 | 67% | 31 ✗ |
| Clayton Oliver | 24.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Jack Viney | 22.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 18 ✓ |
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Trent Rivers | 21.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 17 ✓ |
| Christian Salem | 21.5 | $1.83 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.94 | 65% | 20 ✗ |
| Max Gawn | 17.5 | $1.94 | 34% | 15 ✓ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.87 | 89% | 29 ✓ |
| Harry Sheezel | 26.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 29 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.93 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.84 | 73% | 27 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 23.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 27 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 72% | 21 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 17.5 | $1.82 | 48% | 15 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri | 17.5 | $1.93 | 55% | 7 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)