Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
93%
North Melbourne
7%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. Melbourne carry a 79-point ELO rating advantage (1341 vs 1262). Recent form favours North Melbourne with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 45.7 points with a combined total of 190.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.20
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.9%
Line / Spread
Melbourne -28.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.9%
Total Points
Over 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | LLLLL | 72.8 |
North Melbourne | WWLLL | 72.6 |
Avg Conceded
90.0
Melbourne
96.4
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
-17.2
Melbourne
-23.8
North Melbourne
Disposals
343.0
Melbourne
354.8
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Melbourne predicted to win by 46 points
Predicted total: 190 · Line: +45.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.25
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.