# GWS GIANTS v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 111 – 85 Geelong Cats

_GWS GIANTS dwarf Geelong Cats._

Half time: 47 – 41 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 45% / Geelong Cats 55% · ENGIE Stadium · Sat, 12 July, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Callum Brown (11'), Jake Stringer (14' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jesse Hogan (33' Tipped ⚡), Toby Bedford (35'), Darcy Jones (72'), Aaron Cadman (74' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (33m 31s)Aaron Cadman (65'), Toby Greene (71' Tipped ⚡), Jake Riccardi (75' Tipped ⚡) · Geelong Cats: Oliver Dempsey (3' 1st), Jeremy Cameron (6' Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (12' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Jack Bowes (60'), Gryan Miers (79'), Max Holmes (79'), Brad Close (84'), Oliver Henry (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 55% | Lost |
| GWS GIANTS | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.2 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 111–85 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 18 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats did plenty right in the first quarter at ENGIE Stadium. Their ruck division got moving early and finished the day 40 hit-outs to 30, a genuine advantage. They were the cleaner side inside forward 50 too, taking 13 marks there to GWS Giants' 10, and they racked up more inside 50 entries overall, 60 to 56. All of that showed up on the scoreboard early: Geelong led 26 to 13 at quarter time. On paper, that's the platform for a comfortable away win.

It didn't hold. GWS scored their way back to lead 47 to 41 at half time, then took control in the third quarter to go to 80 to 55 at the last change. From there it was 111 to 85 at full time, a 26-point win that looked nothing like the shape of the opening term.

The clearance count explains a lot of it. GWS won clearances 43 to 31 despite the contested possession count being locked level at 142 apiece. Geelong's ruckmen were winning the taps, but GWS were first hands on the ball more often when it mattered, turning Geelong's hit-out advantage into someone else's use of it.

Disposal efficiency was close to a dead heat, 70.4 per cent for GWS against 70.7 for Geelong, yet GWS still finished with 350 disposals to 326. More time with the ball, more chances to do damage with it. Marks went GWS's way too, 93 to 87, even with Geelong holding the edge inside 50.

Tackles favoured Geelong, 54 to 47, which fits a side that spent long stretches chasing rather than using the ball. Intercepts were close, 73 to 72 in Geelong's favour, but it wasn't enough to offset the clearance gap or the extra volume of the ball GWS enjoyed for large parts of the afternoon.

The pre-match numbers had this one pointing the other way entirely.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 13 | 34 | 33 | 31 | 111 |
| Geelong Cats | 26 | 15 | 14 | 30 | 85 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **350** | Disposals | 326 |
| 142 | Contested poss. | 142 |
| **43** | Clearances | 31 |
| 56 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| **93** | Marks | 87 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 47 | Tackles | **54** |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **40** |
| 72 | Intercepts | **73** |
| 70.4% | Disposal eff. | **70.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 55% prediction for Geelong Cats, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.2 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 196 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 167. GWS GIANTS led 47–41 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.72 (edge -3.1%) — model probability 55.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 7 · Predicted total: 167

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | GWS GIANTS | 86 – 73 | Geelong Cats |
| 2025 | R9 | Geelong Cats | 101 – 105 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R11 | Geelong Cats | 74 – 78 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R11 | Geelong Cats | 74 – 81 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2022 | R8 | GWS GIANTS | 35 – 88 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 163 · 105 | 169 · 115 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 6.3/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 113/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.2/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.4/g | 10.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.5% | 67.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 39 · 51 | 58 · 42 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 140/g | 128/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.5/g | 20.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.5% | 69.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 19 | 9 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.9/g | 11.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.7% | 80.8% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.72/g (lg 3.59) +4% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.51) +2% · Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.43) -2%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.28) -2% · Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.51) -4% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.43) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 40 in 12g | 27/10g (2·2·1·7·1·4·0·2·6·2) | 15/7g | 83/25g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 27 in 15g | 13/10g (0·2·0·1·1·3·1·0·2·3) | 24/12g | 140/83g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 26 in 16g | 20/10g (1·2·1·1·2·2·1·5·3·2) | 2/3g | 17/16g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 87' 90' 92' 82' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 16 in 14g | 14/10g (0·0·0·2·3·3·0·3·2·1) | 2/3g | 28/15g | 60% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 16 in 12g | 14/10g (0·3·1·0·3·2·2·0·2·1) | 8/4g | 30/24g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 13 in 15g | 8/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 9/10g | 64% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 11 in 9g | 13/10g (2·0·0·2·1·0·3·2·2·1) | 22/13g | 7/9g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 39' 45' 86' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 20/34g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 10/20g | 32% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 5/10g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/4g | 6/22g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 4/19g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/10g | 51/74g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 7/21g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/8g | 58/59g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/32g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/26g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/32g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 30/87g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 13% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 52 in 16g | 39/10g (4·1·2·7·6·5·0·6·4·4) | 12/5g | 164/59g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 22 in 16g | 13/10g (2·2·2·2·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 70% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 22 in 16g | 17/10g (0·1·1·1·5·1·0·4·1·3) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 58' 84' 69' 91' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 21 in 14g | 14/10g (4·3·1·1·1·0·0·2·0·2) | 17/17g | 7/6g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 16 in 13g | 12/10g (0·2·2·1·2·1·0·3·0·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 71% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 6/6g | 0/0g | 70% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 13 in 14g | 9/10g (1·0·0·2·1·1·1·2·0·1) | 5/4g | 0/0g | 74% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 42% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 8 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 3/7g | 1/1g | 52% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | George Stevens | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 1 in 4g | 9/10g (1·2·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/9g | 3/5g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 24 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 32 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash | 28.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 27 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan | 26.5 | $1.86 | 54% | 29 ✗ |
| Josh Kelly | 22.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 15 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 19.5 | $1.89 | 62% | 13 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.89 | 68% | 15 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.98 | 55% | 11 ✓ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 28.5 | $1.95 | 46% | 26 ✓ |
| Max Holmes | 28.5 | $1.77 | 65% | 17 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.90 | 73% | 22 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 29 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 18.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 18 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.89 | 59% | 15 ✓ |
| George Stevens | 17.5 | $1.89 | 34% | 7 ✓ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 14.5 | $1.95 | 46% | 7 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)