AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Gold Coast SUNS by 8.3 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 132 points came in 34 points lower than the predicted 166. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
63%
Collingwood
37%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Collingwood are far from out of this at 37%. Collingwood are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Gold Coast SUNS counter with Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Collingwood carry a 243-point ELO rating advantage (1852 vs 1609). Recent form favours Collingwood with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 8.3 points with a combined total of 166.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @2.05
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.5%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.5%
Total Points
Under 171.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | WWLLL | 83.8 |
Collingwood | WWWWW | 98.0 |
Avg Conceded
80.2
Gold Coast SUNS
63.8
Collingwood
Avg Margin
3.6
Gold Coast SUNS
34.2
Collingwood
Disposals
346.6
Gold Coast SUNS
356.6
Collingwood
Inside 50s
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
50.0
Collingwood
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 166 · Line: +8.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.08
Team Effectiveness
-0.08
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.