# Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood — AFL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 69 – 63 Collingwood

_Gold Coast SUNS burn past a gallant Collingwood._

Half time: 43 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 63% / Collingwood 37% · People First Stadium · Fri, 11 July, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (8' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Bailey Humphrey (35' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Rioli (41'), Ethan Read (47' Tipped ⚡), Matt Rowell (69'), Sam Clohesy (89'), Ben Long (78' Tipped ⚡), Noah Anderson (79') · Collingwood: Tim Membrey (77' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (83' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Daicos (63' ×2), Lachie Schultz (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 63% | Won |
| Collingwood | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.3 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Collingwood Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 18, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 69–63 Collingwood in AFL Round 18 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at People First Stadium read like a mismatch that had gone wrong for one side entirely. Gold Coast SUNS led 43 to 8, a 35 point buffer built on early control of the ball and not much resistance from Collingwood. By three-quarter time it was 57 to 29, still comfortable, still looking like a laugher.

Then Collingwood decided to show up. The last quarter alone went 34 points to 12 in their favour, a proper avalanche that turned a laugher into a nail biter. Add the third term, where they outscored the SUNS 21 to 14, and Collingwood put together a 55 to 26 second half. It just started too late.

Final score: Gold Coast SUNS 69, Collingwood 63. Six points, after being down by 35 at the main break. That's the kind of finish that gets replayed on the highlights package even though the result never actually changed hands.

The clearance count tells you why Gold Coast built the buffer in the first place. They won clearances 46 to 33, which is a big number given Collingwood came in rated the stronger midfield unit, 1051 to 1016. On the day the SUNS just won more first use of the ball, and in a low scoring track like this one, first use matters more than the ledger suggests.

Collingwood's comeback has its own numbers behind it. They ran inside 50 53 times to 43, were cleaner once they got there with 15 marks inside 50 to 10, and read the ball in defence better too, 65 intercepts to 55. Their tackle count, 76 to 66, backs up a side that worked harder for it in the back half of the game. None of that was enough to close the gap, but all of it explains why the margin ended at six rather than something more comfortable.

Disposal efficiency was close, 70.0 per cent for Gold Coast to 68.7 for Collingwood, and total disposals were near enough too, 339 to 330. Hit-outs were dead level at 43 apiece. This wasn't a game decided by one side dominating every column. It was decided by who cashed in when

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 17 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 69 |
| Collingwood | 4 | 4 | 21 | 34 | 63 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **339** | Disposals | 330 |
| **139** | Contested poss. | 136 |
| **46** | Clearances | 33 |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **53** |
| **67** | Marks | 59 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| 66 | Tackles | **76** |
| 43 | Hit-outs | 43 |
| 55 | Intercepts | **65** |
| **70.0%** | Disposal eff. | 68.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Gold Coast SUNS by 8.3 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 132 points came in 34 points lower than the predicted 166. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.05 (edge +14.5%) — model probability 63.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 8 · Predicted total: 166

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 161 · 114 | 171 · 96 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 116/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.3/g | 20.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.1/g | 11.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67% | 69.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 43 | 34 · 45 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.1/g | 19.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.5% | 68.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 14 | 14 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.5/g | 12/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.3% | 81.4% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.28) -6% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.48) -10% · Midfielders 2.08/g (lg 2.35) -11%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.49/g (lg 1.28) +16% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.35) +1% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.48) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 42 in 15g | 24/10g (5·1·3·2·2·1·1·2·3·4) | 10/5g | 94/43g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.62 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 37' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 27 in 14g | 17/10g (3·1·1·4·3·1·1·1·2·0) | 2/5g | 15/20g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 17 in 14g | 11/10g (3·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 14/9g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 16 in 15g | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 2/10g | 27/86g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 14 in 15g | 12/10g (4·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·2·2) | 0/2g | 15/20g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 12 in 14g | 11/10g (0·1·1·2·2·0·0·2·2·1) | 8/8g | 66/59g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 10 in 11g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·3) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 10 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 14/34g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 11/15g | 24% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 1/6g | 24/47g | 36% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 16/37g | 28% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 14/43g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 24% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 16/43g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 2/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | David Swallow | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 41/95g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 11/68g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/19g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 7/49g | 4% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 41 in 16g | 31/10g (5·1·6·1·5·5·1·2·1·4) | 18/8g | 13/5g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 83' 66' 76' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 22 in 15g | 15/10g (2·1·0·1·3·1·1·2·2·2) | 12/10g | 9/8g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' 86' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 16 in 11g | 16/10g (3·1·0·1·3·0·2·2·0·4) | 16/15g | 12/11g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 10 in 16g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 3/4g | 3/3g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 15/11g | 10/7g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 6/14g | 1/7g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 6/12g | 3/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 5 in 16g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·2·2·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 7/9g | 58% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 0/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/7g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 8/14g | 5/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/5g | 2/3g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 4/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 63' 69' |
| – | Oleg Markov | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/16g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Mitchell | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 3/5g | 18% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 32 ✗ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.85 | 69% | 11 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 30 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 32 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 81% | 18 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 20.5 | $1.74 | 55% | 21 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 19.5 | $1.45 | 70% | 15 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli | 19.5 | $1.77 | 64% | 22 ✗ |
| Wil Powell | 17.5 | $1.78 | 66% | 7 ✓ |
| Bailey Humphrey | 16.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 14 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 26 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 28.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 32 ✗ |
| Tom Mitchell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.96 | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 22.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 13 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 71% | 12 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.80 | 46% | 19 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 16.5 | $1.85 | 50% | 17 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard | 16.5 | $1.82 | 58% | 17 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron | 14.5 | $1.84 | 34% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)