AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 6.4 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. Fremantle trailed 37–46 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 77–64. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
57%
Hawthorn
43%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Hawthorn are far from out of this at 43%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Hawthorn carry a 62-point ELO rating advantage (1572 vs 1510). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 6.4 points with a combined total of 151.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.83
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.8%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.8%
Total Points
Under 154.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W L L L L | 105.5 |
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 79.7 |
Avg Conceded
80.6
Fremantle
91.1
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
13.6
Fremantle
9.8
Hawthorn
Disposals
379.9
Fremantle
361.3
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
48.1
Fremantle
44.7
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1572 vs 1510), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.83).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Fremantle predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 151 · Line: +6.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.47
Team Effectiveness
-0.14
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.