# Fremantle v Hawthorn — AFL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 77 – 64 Hawthorn

_Fremantle hit back to sink Hawthorn._

Half time: 37 – 46 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 57% / Hawthorn 43% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 12 July, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Michael Frederick (21' ×2), Shai Bolton (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (48'), Sam Switkowski (70'), Patrick Voss (76' Tipped ⚡), Sean Darcy (83'), Josh Treacy (90' Tipped ⚡) · Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (12' 1st Tipped 🎯), Calsher Dear (27' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (35'), Nick Watson (46' Tipped ⚡), Connor Macdonald (53'), Jack Ginnivan (63' Tipped ⚡), Finn Maginness (97')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 57% | Won |
| Hawthorn | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 77–64 Hawthorn in AFL Round 18 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn did most things right for three quarters. They won the contested footy 156 to 135, moved the ball more often with 365 disposals to 339, and their defence read the intercept plays better all night, finishing with 80 to Fremantle's 70. By three-quarter time that had them up 62-49, thirteen points clear and looking like they'd cash in a form line that had them winning at a healthier clip than Fremantle over the last five weeks.

Then the last quarter happened. Hawthorn scored two points. Two. Fremantle scored 28 and the whole game flipped in the space of twenty minutes.

That's the story of this one. Hawthorn built the lead in patches, a big second quarter (32 points to Fremantle's 18) took them from a four-point deficit at the first change to a nine-point lead at the half, and they held that buffer through the third term. But whatever was working through three quarters simply stopped working in the fourth, and Fremantle's pressure caught up with them at the worst possible time.

That pressure had been building all match. Fremantle laid 103 tackles to Hawthorn's 78, a gap that eventually shows up on the scoreboard even if it doesn't always show up straight away. They were also cleaner going forward, hitting targets at 66.9% against Hawthorn's 63.6%, and made better use of it inside 50 with 10 marks inside the arc to Hawthorn's 8. Add a hit-out edge (56 to 51) and a ruck presence that outperformed its 966-to-1032 rating disadvantage coming in, and you've got a side that kept applying scoreboard pressure even while trailing.

Hawthorn's issue wasn't generating the ball. It was what happened after they had it. More disposals, more contested ball, more intercepts, and still 13 points shy at the final siren. Fremantle's forward line had actually rated slightly stronger than Hawthorn's before the game (1061 to 1052), and it was the one battle that held up when everything else was supposed to favour the visitors on paper, with Hawthorn rated ahead in midfield, defence and ruck.

Alphr's model had Fremantle as 57% favourites and picked them by 6.4 points on a combined total of 151. The final margin came in at 13, double the predicted gap, and the combined score landed at 141. Close enough on the total, undercooked on the margin, but the pick itself held up. All three model calls for this one hit.

Fremantle's form coming in said they were the better scoring side, averaging 105.5 points against Hawthorn's 79.7, and conceding less too. For three quarters Hawthorn made a mockery of both numbers. Then Fremantle's last-quarter surge dragged the match back to where the model expected it to land all along. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one finished exactly the way the ratings thought it should, just via a much longer detour than 6.4 points suggested.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 19 | 18 | 12 | 28 | 77 |
| Hawthorn | 14 | 32 | 16 | 2 | 64 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 339 | Disposals | **365** |
| 135 | Contested poss. | **156** |
| **40** | Clearances | 39 |
| 51 | Inside 50s | 51 |
| **67** | Marks | 64 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| **103** | Tackles | 78 |
| **56** | Hit-outs | 51 |
| 70 | Intercepts | **80** |
| **66.9%** | Disposal eff. | 63.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 6.4 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. Fremantle trailed 37–46 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 77–64. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.83 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 57.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 154.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 6 · Predicted total: 151

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 122 · 120 | 148 · 113 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 77/g | 93/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.9/g | 17.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.1/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.4% | 68.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 60 · 47 | 35 · 43 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 156/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 29.1/g | 22.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.8% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 28 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.2/g | 13.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 79.7% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.42/g (lg 1.28) +11% · Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.39) +1% · Key Forwards 3.44/g (lg 3.6) -4%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.47/g (lg 2.39) +3% · Key Forwards 3.55/g (lg 3.6) -1% · Forwards 4/g (lg 4.43) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 31 in 16g | 13/10g (2·0·2·1·0·0·0·3·3·2) | 6/5g | 57/38g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 20 in 16g | 11/10g (2·0·1·3·1·1·0·2·0·1) | 4/5g | 59/52g | 72% | — | 🏉 21' 73' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 20 in 15g | 13/10g (1·0·1·3·1·3·1·2·1·0) | 11/9g | 30/18g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 55' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 18 in 16g | 9/10g (2·2·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/3g | 49/34g | 70% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 18 in 16g | 11/10g (1·0·1·1·4·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 10/9g | 77% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 15 in 12g | 13/10g (0·1·2·1·1·3·3·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 12/12g | 79% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 13 in 13g | 11/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·2·3·2·2) | 4/6g | 33/37g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 10 in 11g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 7/6g | 71% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 31/84g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 5/6g | 34/50g | 54% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 1/7g | 23/62g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/5g | 28/57g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/20g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 10/17g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/7g | 2/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/8g | 22/60g | 26% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 8/48g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/29g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 21/63g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 12/31g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/33g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/85g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 38 in 13g | 28/10g (3·4·3·3·0·2·1·2·7·3) | 18/11g | 13/7g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 32 in 16g | 22/10g (3·2·2·3·0·0·4·1·5·2) | 6/4g | 6/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 23 in 15g | 17/10g (2·1·3·2·3·0·1·0·3·2) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 18 in 15g | 16/10g (2·2·1·2·1·3·2·0·2·1) | 5/2g | 4/3g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 14 in 14g | 11/10g (2·0·0·0·3·0·1·2·2·1) | 2/3g | 3/2g | 64% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 13 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 8/6g | 7/4g | 66% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/9g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/4g | 1/3g | 46% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 2/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 2/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 0 in 1g | 16/10g (2·0·2·0·3·3·2·3·1·0) | 2/1g | 0/1g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $16.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' 37' 90' |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/64g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 27.5 | $1.85 | 63% | 29 ✗ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 27.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 29 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 31 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 22 ✗ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.91 | 75% | 18 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson | 18.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 21 ✗ |
| Corey Wagner ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.82 | 78% | 18 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 17.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 19 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 23.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 24 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.80 | 54% | 30 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 21 ✗ |
| James Worpel | 20.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 22 ✗ |
| Josh Ward | 19.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 20 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 16.5 | $1.85 | 45% | 17 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 16.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)