# Carlton v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 18 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 66 – 103 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions devour Carlton._

Half time: 42 – 72 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 12% / Brisbane Lions 88% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 10 July, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Orazio Fantasia (11' Tipped ⚡), Zac Williams (23'), Marc Pittonet (33' ×2), Patrick Cripps (53'), Corey Durdin (54'), Tom De Koning (72'), George Hewett (75'), Mitch McGovern (77') · Brisbane Lions: Jarrod Berry (6' 1st), Charlie Cameron (7' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Eric Hipwood (9' Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (29' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Will Ashcroft (43'), Hugh McCluggage (50'), Levi Ashcroft (63'), Kai Lohmann (79'), Zac Bailey (83' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fort (85')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 88% | Won |
| Carlton | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 36.6 predicted → 37 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 18 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 66–103 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 18 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at Marvel Stadium had Brisbane Lions up 72 to 42, a 30-point break that already looked like more than Carlton could find an answer for. It got worse before it got better. By three-quarter time the Lions had stretched it out to 98–46, a 52-point gap that turned the last term into a formality.

Carlton did find something in the fourth, outscoring Brisbane 20 to 5 in the final quarter alone. Worth noting, but it was the sort of comeback that only matters for pride. Final score: Brisbane Lions 103, Carlton 66, a 37-point win that never looked in doubt from midway through the second term onward.

The stat sheet tells you why. Brisbane finished with 383 disposals to 344 and used it far better, 75.9% efficiency against Carlton's 68.5%. They went inside 50 61 times to 45 and racked up 130 marks to Carlton's 69, the kind of gap that lets a team control territory without needing to force things.

Carlton actually won the contested footy battle, 144 possessions to 113, and had the edge at the coalface with 37 clearances to 29. On paper that should matter more than it did. It's a reminder that clearances only count for something if you can use what comes out of them, and Carlton's inside 50 count of 45 against Brisbane's 61 shows where that advantage leaked away.

Pre-match, Carlton rated stronger in defence (1139 to 940) and at the ruck contest (1143 to 948), with Brisbane only holding an edge in midfield strength, 1021 to 1063 the other way. None of that showed up in Brisbane's number of marks or their disposal efficiency, both of which blew Carlton's supposed defensive edge out of the water.

Form lines add a wrinkle. Carlton had been the higher-scoring side of late, averaging 103.8 points for and just 67.4 against, with a healthier average margin than Brisbane's. Carlton also averaged more inside 50s across their last five, 56.9 to Brisbane's 43.8. Every one of those trends flipped on the day.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 21 | 21 | 4 | 20 | 66 |
| Brisbane Lions | 34 | 38 | 26 | 5 | 103 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 344 | Disposals | **383** |
| **144** | Contested poss. | 113 |
| **37** | Clearances | 29 |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| 69 | Marks | **130** |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 14 |
| 59 | Tackles | **69** |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 40 |
| 63 | Intercepts | **65** |
| 68.5% | Disposal eff. | **75.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 88% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 36.6 vs the actual margin of 37 points. The game's 169 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 149. Brisbane Lions led 42–72 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 37. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.18 (edge +3.3%) — model probability 88.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +29.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 37 · Predicted total: 149

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 105 · 122 | 146 · 129 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 85/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.1/g | 19.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.6/g | 9.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 67.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 42 · 43 | 43 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 168/g | 159/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.3/g | 24.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.4% | 69.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 26 | 19 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.4/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.8% | 79.9% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.42/g (lg 4.44) +0% · Key Forwards 3.39/g (lg 3.59) -6% · Midfielders 2.06/g (lg 2.38) -13%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Forwards 4.52/g (lg 4.44) +2% · Defenders 1.3/g (lg 1.28) +2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 27 in 15g | 17/10g (3·2·3·3·3·2·1·0·0·0) | 16/7g | 121/48g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 17 in 12g | 14/10g (0·0·0·4·1·2·2·1·1·3) | 4/8g | 16/27g | 46% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·1·2) | 4/4g | 26/17g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·4·2·1·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 17/19g | 58% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 11 in 16g | 6/10g (0·2·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 12/13g | 44/68g | 48% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 10 in 16g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·4·0·1) | 3/9g | 15/32g | 26% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 9 in 14g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·2·0·3·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/20g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Orazio Fantasia | FWD | 6 in 5g | 13/10g (0·4·1·1·1·1·0·2·2·1) | 12/9g | 59/38g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.72 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 11/40g | 24% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 4/18g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/28g | 36% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 8/27g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/12g | 8/47g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Alex Cincotta | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/12g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | 1 in 2g | 3/4g (1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 75% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry O'Farrell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/59g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/18g | 12% | — | 🏉 33' 46' |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/24g | 2% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 31 in 15g | 20/10g (0·2·0·3·2·2·0·5·5·1) | 2/1g | 7/4g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 56' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 25 in 16g | 13/10g (3·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·5) | 10/7g | 21/15g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 22 in 16g | 10/10g (4·0·3·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 17/11g | 43/22g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 20 in 15g | 13/10g (0·1·3·1·1·4·1·1·0·1) | 5/6g | 8/13g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 17 in 16g | 12/10g (0·0·3·0·2·1·2·1·3·0) | 7/8g | 16/17g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 94' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 17 in 14g | 13/10g (0·3·1·0·3·1·2·0·0·3) | 18/11g | 42/22g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' 64' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 8 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 4/10g | 14/23g | 48% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·2·1) | 2/2g | 3/5g | 58% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 42% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·4·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 1/21g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 10/16g | 18/31g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/6g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 8/18g | 24% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/9g | 38/63g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 8/16g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 17/16g | 25/38g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 9/30g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 33 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 25 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 23.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 26 ✗ |
| Sam Docherty | 22.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 19.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 16.5 | $1.96 | 51% | 23 ✗ |
| Jacob Weitering | 14.5 | $1.94 | 49% | 9 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning | 13.5 | $1.87 | 34% | 14 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 29 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 25.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Lachie Neale | 25.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 31 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 24.5 | $1.83 | 42% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 23.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 28 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 19.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 22 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 19.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 14 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 23 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey | 18.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)