AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 88% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 36.6 vs the actual margin of 37 points. The game's 169 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 149. Brisbane Lions led 42–72 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 37. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
12%
Brisbane Lions
88%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 88%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. Carlton are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Brisbane Lions counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 101-point ELO rating advantage (1600 vs 1499). The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 36.6 points with a combined total of 149.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.3%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions +29.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.3%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W W W L L | 103.8 |
Brisbane Lions | W W W L L | 80.2 |
Avg Conceded
67.4
Carlton
89.0
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
4.3
Carlton
8.1
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
342.4
Carlton
375.7
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
56.9
Carlton
43.8
Brisbane Lions
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1600 vs 1499), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.18).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
88%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 37 points
Predicted total: 149 · Line: -36.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.06
Team Effectiveness
-0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.