# West Coast Eagles v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 52 – 111 GWS GIANTS

_GWS GIANTS stand tall over West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 19 – 54 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 37% / GWS GIANTS 63% · Optus Stadium · Fri, 04 July, 08:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Jamie Cripps (20'), Bailey Williams (47'), Jack Hutchinson (55'), Jobe Shanahan (68' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Graham (80'), Liam Baker (73'), Liam Ryan (88') · GWS GIANTS: Callum Brown (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Toby Greene (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Toby Bedford (15'), Jake Riccardi (26' Tipped ⚡), Finn Callaghan (52'), Darcy Jones (70'), Aaron Cadman (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Josh Kelly (75' ×2), Xavier OHalloran (76' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 63% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 59 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 52–111 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 17 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixty-eight inside 50s to 47. That's the number that did it, and by the time GWS GIANTS had finished piling into attack that many times more than West Coast, the scoreboard read 111 to 52 in their favour at Optus Stadium.

The Giants didn't creep into this one. They opened with 33 points to West Coast's 6 in the first term alone, the kind of quarter that puts a game to bed before it's properly started. West Coast steadied a touch through the middle two quarters, but GWS answered with a 33-13 third term that put the margin out to 87-32 at the last change. From there it was a formality, the Giants adding another 24 in the final quarter to West Coast's 20 to close it out at 111-52.

The clearance count tells you where the game was actually decided: 39-31 to GWS, which fed a disposal count of 399 to 326 and let them dictate territory all afternoon. Interesting given West Coast went into the match rated the stronger midfield unit, 1068 to 988. On the day it counted for nothing, the Giants simply had the ball more and used it better going forward.

That forward use showed up in the inside 50 tally and, more tellingly, in the finish. GWS took 12 marks inside 50 to West Coast's 6, turning territory into genuine scoring chances rather than aimless bombs. The Giants were rated the stronger forward line pre-game, 994 to 964, and that edge showed up exactly where it needed to.

West Coast's one area of parity, oddly, was pressure. They out-tackled GWS 56 to 52, which suggests effort wasn't the issue so much as never having the ball long enough to make it count. Their intercept count, 80 to 93, tells the same story from the other side of the ball: GWS read the play better and kept turning West Coast's ball use into their own opportunities.

The form lines going in flagged GWS as the classic boom-or-bust side, conceding an average of 98 points a game across their last five with an average margin of minus 24.5. West Coast, by contrast, had been the tidier outfit, averaging 89.9 scored against 78 conceded. None of that showed up here. GWS defended like a top side and attacked like one too, a total reversal of the form guide.

Alphr's model picked GWS at 63 percent and got the winner right, along with the total and the head-to-head split, a clean sweep on the picks that count.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 6 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 52 |
| GWS GIANTS | 33 | 21 | 33 | 24 | 111 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Disposals | **399** |
| 122 | Contested poss. | **156** |
| 31 | Clearances | **39** |
| 47 | Inside 50s | **68** |
| 82 | Marks | **99** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| **56** | Tackles | 52 |
| 35 | Hit-outs | **41** |
| 80 | Intercepts | **93** |
| 69.8% | Disposal eff. | **69.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 59 points. GWS GIANTS led 19–54 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 59. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.36 (edge -10.9%) — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 3 · Predicted total: 152

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | GWS GIANTS | 111 – 57 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2026 | R10 | West Coast Eagles | 88 – 71 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R4 | GWS GIANTS | 132 – 51 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2024 | R2 | West Coast Eagles | 43 – 108 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R2 | West Coast Eagles | 100 – 81 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 108 · 155 | 152 · 99 |
| Goal Assists | 4.1/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 22/g | 19.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.1/g | 9.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.7% | 65.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 27 · 53 | 34 · 50 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.1/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.3% | 71.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 16 | 4 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 105/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.6/g | 10.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.3% | 81% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.29) -2% · Midfielders 2.26/g (lg 2.38) -5% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.43) -6%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.82/g (lg 0.51) +61% · Midfielders 3.44/g (lg 2.38) +45% · Key Forwards 4.62/g (lg 3.58) +29%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 15 in 13g | 12/10g (2·1·1·1·2·3·1·0·1·0) | 21/15g | 95/79g | 78% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·2·0·3·1·1·2·2·1·1) | 2/1g | 19/19g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 14 in 13g | 8/10g (0·3·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 70/62g | 56% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 1/4g | 5/13g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 9 in 13g | 9/10g (2·0·3·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 11/16g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 9 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 11/18g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·3·0) | 1/5g | 15/38g | 24% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/35g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 20/57g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/16g | 16% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' 80' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 7% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 3/16g | 30% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 4/77g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Malakai Champion | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/28g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/21g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 24 in 15g | 18/10g (0·1·2·1·1·2·2·1·5·3) | 4/2g | 3/1g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' 75' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 24 in 14g | 15/10g (5·0·2·0·1·1·3·1·0·2) | 22/13g | 8/5g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 51' 89' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 15 in 13g | 13/10g (0·0·0·0·2·3·3·0·3·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 15 in 11g | 14/10g (1·0·3·1·0·3·2·2·0·2) | 5/6g | 7/5g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 11 in 14g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 63% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 10 in 8g | 13/10g (1·2·0·0·2·1·0·3·2·2) | 29/16g | 15/10g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/5g | 2/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 2/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 2 in 2g | 5/6g (2·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/12g | 11/10g | 4% | — | — |
| – | James Leake | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 5/8g | 38% | — | 🏉 75' 86' |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.93 | 90% | 19 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 22.5 | $2.00 | 59% | 11 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 21.5 | $1.76 | 66% | 28 ✗ |
| Jack Graham ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.86 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 18.5 | $1.94 | 55% | 24 ✗ |
| Ryan Maric | 17.5 | $1.93 | 42% | 20 ✗ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.75 | 68% | 21 ✗ |
| Brady Hough ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 18 ✗ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 31.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 35 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.77 | 72% | 29 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 37 ✗ |
| Josh Kelly | 22.5 | $1.87 | 45% | 27 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.78 | 72% | 21 ✗ |
| Toby Greene | 18.5 | $1.78 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 18.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 20 ✗ |
| Harry Rowston ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 98% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)