AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 16.8 was reasonable against the actual 11-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
67%
Fremantle
33%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Fremantle. Fremantle are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 16.8 points with a combined total of 165.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.0%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.0%
Total Points
Over 164.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W W L L | 101.6 |
Fremantle | W W W W L | 84.5 |
Avg Conceded
73.6
Sydney Swans
65.3
Fremantle
Avg Margin
26.8
Sydney Swans
14.2
Fremantle
Disposals
355.5
Sydney Swans
331.3
Fremantle
Inside 50s
51.3
Sydney Swans
45.4
Fremantle
ELO–Market Disagreement
Fremantle hold the ELO advantage (1529 vs 1518), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.60).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 17 points
Predicted total: 165 · Line: +16.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.04
Team Effectiveness
+0.20
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.