# Sydney Swans v Fremantle — AFL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 94 – 83 Fremantle

_Sydney Swans sail past a gallant Fremantle._

Half time: 53 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 67% / Fremantle 33% · SCG · Sun, 06 July, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Brodie Grundy (6' 1st), Jake Lloyd (12' ×2), Hayden McLean (30' ×3), Chad Warner (36'), Joel Amartey (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), James Jordon (59'), Nick Blakey (61'), Errol Gulden (91'), Will Hayward (78') · Fremantle: Josh Treacy (10' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (28' Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (44' Tipped ⚡), Corey Wagner (54'), Luke Jackson (78' ×2), Isaiah Dudley (85'), Murphy Reid (88'), Jaeger OMeara (71'), Michael Frederick (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 67% | Won |
| Fremantle | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.8 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 94–83 Fremantle in AFL Round 17 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle wanted the ball moving forward, fast and often. Sydney wanted it in hand and under control. Both sides got what they came for in patches, but only one of them turned that approach into a scoreboard, and it wasn't the side chasing more of the ball.

The Swans beat Fremantle 94-83 at the SCG, and the underlying numbers explain why territory alone doesn't win you games. Fremantle finished with more contested possessions, 127 to 123, more inside 50s, 51 to 48, and more intercepts, 61 to 56. On the ledger of raw opportunity, Fremantle had the better sheet. Sydney just did more with what they had.

That's the whole story in the efficiency numbers. Sydney's disposal efficiency sat at 73.3% against Fremantle's 71.6%, and it showed up everywhere that mattered. Marks: 105 to 81. Marks inside 50: 12 to 11. Clearances: 41 to 32, a gap that let the Swans control entries into their forward line rather than scramble for them. Tackles: 81 to 53, a number that tells you Sydney weren't just holding the ball, they were taking it off Fremantle too.

The scoreboard ran in Sydney's favour from the opening term and never changed hands. Up 21-15 at quarter time, the Swans stretched it to 53-36 by half time, a 17-point buffer built on exactly the patient, possession-heavy footy the stats describe. Fremantle clawed back in the third, cutting the margin to eight at the final change, 74-66, which is as close as the contest got. Sydney steadied from there, closing it out 94-83.

What makes that hold-on more interesting is the pre-match shape of these two sides. Fremantle rated stronger in every key position: midfield 1067 to 983, forwards 1044 to 1034, defence 1045 to 981, ruck 1053 to 970. On paper, Fremantle should have owned the contest. Instead Sydney's clearance and tackling numbers overrode the ratings gap, and Fremantle's raw advantage in inside 50s never translated into value, not with Sydney's marks tally more than 20 clear.

Form lines told a similarly mixed story coming in. Fremantle had the better recent win record, 3.9 to 2.9 across the last five, but Sydney were scoring more, 101.6 points a game to Fremantle's 84.5, and winning by more, an average margin of 26.8 against Fremantle's 14.2. This one landed closer to Fremantle's typical week than Sydney's, an 11-point result against a Swans side that's been used to blowing teams away.

Alphr's model had Sydney at 67% to win, with a projected margin of 16.8 on a combined total of 165. The actual margin, 11, sat under that number but square in the right direction, and the total finished at 177, higher than tipped. A clean sweep for the three picks on this one, and a reminder that a possession game can still be an ambition game, so long as someone's actually finishing the sets.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 21 | 32 | 21 | 20 | 94 |
| Fremantle | 15 | 21 | 30 | 17 | 83 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **339** | Disposals | 317 |
| 123 | Contested poss. | **127** |
| **41** | Clearances | 32 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **51** |
| **105** | Marks | 81 |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **81** | Tackles | 53 |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| 56 | Intercepts | **61** |
| **73.3%** | Disposal eff. | 71.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 16.8 was reasonable against the actual 11-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.60 (edge +4.0%) — model probability 66.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 17 · Predicted total: 165

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 88 · 121 | 115 · 112 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 104/g | 78/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.5/g | 14.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.8/g | 7.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.7% | 68.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 63 · 47 | 55 · 42 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 140/g | 155/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.1/g | 29.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.7/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67% | 70.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 18 | 14 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.6/g | 9.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.9% | 81.6% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.44/g (lg 2.38) +3% · Key Forwards 3.52/g (lg 3.58) -2% · Forwards 4.02/g (lg 4.45) -10%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.57/g (lg 0.51) +12% · Midfielders 2.4/g (lg 2.38) +1% · Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.45) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 22 in 15g | 18/10g (2·1·1·0·2·3·1·1·2·5) | 17/14g | 127/97g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 75% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 20 in 15g | 12/10g (2·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·3·0) | 17/12g | 92/77g | 78% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 16 in 12g | 13/10g (3·2·1·1·1·1·2·1·1·0) | 6/8g | 40/36g | 80% | — | 🏉 30' 69' 91' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 15 in 15g | 8/10g (0·2·0·0·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 6/7g | 44/49g | 68% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 11/40g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 11 in 7g | 15/10g (1·3·0·3·0·2·4·0·2·0) | 7/5g | 41/29g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 82' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 7 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·1) | 3/7g | 10/21g | 34% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (0·3·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 22/61g | 26% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/12g | 5/25g | 20% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 22/56g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 18/46g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 3 in 5g | 13/10g (4·0·2·3·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 17/13g | 141/84g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/17g | 19/115g | 18% | — | 🏉 12' 76' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 17/62g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 11/77g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 1 in 1g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/21g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 29/41g | 46% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 17/86g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/46g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 16/31g | 28% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 29 in 15g | 12/10g (1·2·0·2·1·0·0·0·3·3) | 11/6g | 4/2g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 32' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 20 in 14g | 16/10g (3·1·0·1·3·1·3·1·2·1) | 6/9g | 1/1g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 78% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 19 in 15g | 10/10g (0·2·0·1·3·1·1·0·2·0) | 5/7g | 3/2g | 70% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 17 in 15g | 11/10g (3·2·2·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/5g | 5/2g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 17 in 15g | 11/10g (1·1·0·1·1·4·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 76% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (1·0·1·2·1·1·3·3·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 79% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.37 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 11 in 12g | 10/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·3·2) | 6/8g | 6/3g | 58% | — | 🏉 78' 94' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 70% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 2/3g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 3/9g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 2/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 3/7g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.85 | 74% | 25 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 23.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 21 ✓ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 70% | 26 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 19 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney | 21.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 20 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 20.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 20 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 20.5 | $1.94 | 41% | 24 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 12 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy | 18.5 | $1.94 | 51% | 20 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 27.5 | $1.89 | 51% | 24 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong | 26.5 | $1.92 | 48% | 11 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 23.5 | $1.92 | 50% | 13 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.89 | 50% | 21 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 17.5 | $1.97 | 45% | 17 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 17.5 | $1.80 | 51% | 13 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson | 17.5 | $1.82 | 42% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)