# St Kilda v Hawthorn — AFL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 74 – 94 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn see off St Kilda._

Half time: 24 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 9% / Hawthorn 91% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 05 July, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Max Hall (19' ×3), Marcus Windhager (48'), Jack Higgins (50' Tipped ⚡), Jack Macrae (79'), Mitch Owens (88'), Final quarter (30m 38s)Jack Higgins (62'), Cooper Sharman (72' Tipped ⚡), Rowan Marshall (92') · Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (13' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Nick Watson (23' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Ginnivan (47' Tipped ⚡), Connor Macdonald (53' Tipped ⚡), Jai Newcombe (60'), Max Ramsden (73' Tipped ⚡), Harry Morrison (76'), Mabior Chol (81' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (67'), Massimo DAmbrosio (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 91% | Won |
| St Kilda | 9% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 28.1 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 74–94 Hawthorn in AFL Round 17 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda did plenty right at Marvel Stadium and still lost by 20. That tells you most of what you need to know about how comprehensively Hawthorn covered the gaps.

Start with the ledger in St Kilda's favour. More disposals, 363 to 345. More clearances, 41 to 37. More contested ball, 136 to 118. More inside 50s, 53 to 42, and more than double the tackles, 82 to 59. On paper that's a side that had its foot on the game. On the scoreboard it's a side that got beaten by 20 points.

The gap is explained by what happened when the ball actually got forward, and what happened around the ruck. Hawthorn won hit-outs 64 to 30, a number that lopsided always going to shape first use of the footy, and it showed up where it counts: 14 marks inside 50 to St Kilda's 9. St Kilda could win the ball back and run it forward all day, but Hawthorn were the side taking the grab in the right spot and doing something with it. Marks overall went 103 to 81 Hawthorn's way too, which is a fair proxy for who was in control of the ball in the air all afternoon.

The scoreboard arc backs that up. Hawthorn led 17-8 at the first change and never gave it up, out to 42-24 at half time and 72-46 at the three-quarter mark. St Kilda didn't fold, they kept the margin roughly stable across the second half rather than watching it blow out further, but they never found the sustained scoring burst to properly threaten. By the time St Kilda got their 82 tackles in for the game, Hawthorn already had the scoreboard cushion those tackles needed to erase.

Pre-match, the model had Hawthorn at 1517 to St Kilda's 1500, a 91% win probability and a predicted margin of 28.1 from a combined total near 160. The final was 94-74, a 20-point margin, so the model had the right side and the right shape of the result, just a touch heavier than what played out. Hawthorn covered the 18.5-point line, which lines up with a scoreline that never really looked in doubt after the first quarter.

The form and ratings lines make sense of it too. Hawthorn came in stronger in the midfield, 1054 to 1013, and stronger in the ruck, 986 to 975, and both of those edges showed up directly in the hit-out and marking-inside-50 numbers. St Kilda's defence rating, 993 to 984, was the one area they had an edge going in, and it's arguable that showed up in disposal efficiency, where the gap was minimal, 73.9% to 75.7%. Hawthorn's recent form average of 78.7 points scored and just 96.1 conceded also suggested a side comfortable playing an up-and-down game, and that's roughly what unfolded.

St Kilda will look at the clearance and tackle counts and know the engine room did its job. The concession is simple enough: winning the ball is only half the job, and Hawthorn were the better side at the pointy end of the ground, in the air, and around the stoppages that mattered most.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 8 | 16 | 22 | 28 | 74 |
| Hawthorn | 17 | 25 | 30 | 22 | 94 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| **363** | Disposals | 345 |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 118 |
| **41** | Clearances | 37 |
| **53** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| 81 | Marks | **103** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| **82** | Tackles | 59 |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **64** |
| 51 | Intercepts | **54** |
| 73.9% | Disposal eff. | **75.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 91% probability. The predicted margin of 28.1 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. Hawthorn covered the 18.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.35 (edge +16.5%) — model probability 90.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 28 · Predicted total: 160

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 110 · 129 | 137 · 106 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 71/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 17.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.9/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 67.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 39 · 60 | 32 · 40 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 165/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.9/g | 22.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.1/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 70.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 11 | 28 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.8/g | 14.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.9% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.44/g (lg 1.29) +12% · Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.38) +1% · Key Forwards 3.46/g (lg 3.58) -3%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.45/g (lg 2.38) +3% · Key Forwards 3.39/g (lg 3.58) -5% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.44) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 31 in 15g | 17/10g (3·3·1·2·5·0·1·1·0·1) | 11/8g | 86/60g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 19 in 13g | 13/10g (0·1·4·2·1·3·0·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 40/34g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 19 in 14g | 11/10g (3·0·3·0·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 3/3g | 46/39g | 60% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 16 in 13g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·3·0) | 7/9g | 81/76g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 13 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/8g | 64% | — | 🏉 19' 85' 83' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 15/20g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 9 in 9g | 9/9g (1·1·0·1·0·3·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 9 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 7/45g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 7 in 4g | 13/10g (2·1·0·2·1·0·4·0·2·1) | 14/8g | 68/59g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 39/104g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/9g | 20/78g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/9g | 43/74g | 38% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 21/26g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/35g | 6% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 38/94g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 10/56g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 5/15g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/73g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 27/130g | 8% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 3/104g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 35 in 12g | 31/10g (6·3·4·3·3·0·2·1·2·7) | 19/13g | 83/38g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' 90' 88' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 30 in 15g | 23/10g (3·3·2·2·3·0·0·4·1·5) | 4/3g | 19/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 81' 92' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 21 in 14g | 15/10g (0·2·1·3·2·3·0·1·0·3) | 2/1g | 1/2g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 55' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 17 in 14g | 15/10g (0·2·2·1·2·1·3·2·0·2) | 4/3g | 15/10g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 13 in 13g | 11/10g (1·2·0·0·0·3·0·1·2·2) | 2/5g | 11/12g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 12 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 9/7g | 19/18g | 64% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 15g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/29g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 8/14g | 42% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 11/25g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 5/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/18g | 16% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 8/22g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Max Ramsden | KF | 3 in 3g | 4/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 14/22g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/11g | 10/30g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 8/62g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Seamus Mitchell | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 43 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $2.00 | 68% | 24 ✓ |
| Jack Macrae | 25.5 | $1.82 | 56% | 26 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 21.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 26 ✗ |
| Hunter Clark ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 74% | 19 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 18.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 21 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 18.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 27 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.95 | 51% | 9 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Amon | 23.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Jai Newcombe | 23.5 | $2.00 | 59% | 22 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 67% | 14 ✓ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.77 | 70% | 16 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 19.5 | $1.77 | 63% | 20 ✗ |
| Conor Nash ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.78 | 70% | 19 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 18.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-st-kilda-v-hawthorn
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)