AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 90% probability. The predicted margin of 56.6 was reasonable against the actual 49-point result. The game's 219 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 162. Western Bulldogs led 51–64 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
10%
Western Bulldogs
90%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 90%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 434-point ELO rating advantage (1708 vs 1275). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 56.6 points with a combined total of 162.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.04
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.6%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +52.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.6%
Total Points
Under 181.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | WWLLL | 68.2 |
Western Bulldogs | WWWLL | 108.8 |
Avg Conceded
91.2
North Melbourne
84.0
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-23.0
North Melbourne
24.8
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
363.2
North Melbourne
370.4
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
North Melbourne
50.0
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
90%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 57 points
Predicted total: 162 · Line: -56.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.03
Team Effectiveness
+0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.