# North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 85 – 134 Western Bulldogs

_Western Bulldogs run riot over North Melbourne._

Half time: 51 – 64 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 10% / Western Bulldogs 90% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 03 July, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Nick Larkey (7' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Paul Curtis (27' Tipped ⚡), Harry Sheezel (38'), Cameron Zurhaar (58' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cooper Harvey (73'), Finnbar Maley (78'), Robert Hansen (82'), Colby McKercher (85') · Western Bulldogs: Tim English (3' ×2 1st), Tom Liberatore (17' ×2), Bailey Dale (44' ×2), Aaron Naughton (49' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Marcus Bontempelli (64' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Darcy (76' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Joel Freijah (77'), Rhylee West (92' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 90% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 10% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 56.6 predicted → 49 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 85–134 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 17 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixty-five inside 50s to 43. That's the number that sits at the bottom of this one, and it explains how Western Bulldogs put 134 points on North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, winning 134-85.

North Melbourne actually won the clearance count, 41 to 35, which tells you they weren't getting flogged at source. But winning the ball at the coalface means nothing if you can't get it forward, and the Bulldogs simply went there more often and did more with it once they arrived. Nineteen marks inside forward 50 to North Melbourne's 14 is the difference between a side cashing in and a side just visiting.

The scoreboard built steadily rather than exploding all at once. North Melbourne were within six at quarter time, 32-26, and still competitive. By half time it had shifted to 64-51 the Bulldogs' way, and by three-quarter time it was 100-78. The last quarter was where it turned from contest into procession, the Bulldogs piling on another 34 points to North Melbourne's 7 to close it out at 134-85.

Some of that final margin traces straight back to the pre-match numbers. The Bulldogs came in rated stronger everywhere that matters: forwards 1096 to 999, defence 1043 to 945, midfield 1020 to 962. A defence rated that much higher showing up as 65 intercepts to 53 isn't a coincidence, it's a team reading the ball in flight and turning North Melbourne's forward entries straight back the other way.

North Melbourne's hit-out edge, 38 to 33, and their clearance win didn't translate into scoreboard pressure because the Bulldogs were simply more efficient with what they had. Disposal efficiency, 75.3% to 73.5%, sounds like a small gap but over 356 disposals it adds up to a lot more clean use of the ball, and a lot fewer opportunities for North Melbourne to turn defence into attack.

Recent form pointed this way too. The Bulldogs arrived averaging 108.99 points a game to North Melbourne's 99.4, and conceding just 83.57 to North Melbourne's 65.91 shows how their defence had been the more porous of the two on paper. That form gap didn't hold up cleanly here, mind you: North Melbourne conceded 134, well above what either side's average conceded suggested was likely, in a game that ran hot from the opening term.

Alphr's model had Western Bulldogs at 90% to win with a predicted margin of 56.6, and got the winner right with a margin read that landed close enough, 49 points actual against 56.6 tipped. Where it missed was the total: 219 points scored against a projected 162, a 58-point overshoot that speaks to just how open this one got, especially in that final quarter. Two from three on the night's markers, with the score alone showing this wasn't the tight arm-wrestle the ratings gap alone might have suggested.

North Melbourne won the fight in the guts of the ground and still lost by 49. That's footy for you: the clearances are only useful if you can finish what they start.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 32 | 19 | 27 | 7 | 85 |
| Western Bulldogs | 26 | 38 | 36 | 34 | 134 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Disposals | **356** |
| 127 | Contested poss. | **128** |
| **41** | Clearances | 35 |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **65** |
| 81 | Marks | **88** |
| 14 | Marks inside 50 | **19** |
| 63 | Tackles | **71** |
| **38** | Hit-outs | 33 |
| 53 | Intercepts | **65** |
| 73.5% | Disposal eff. | **75.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 90% probability. The predicted margin of 56.6 was reasonable against the actual 49-point result. The game's 219 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 162. Western Bulldogs led 51–64 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. The model went 2/3 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 52.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.04 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 89.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +52.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 57 · Predicted total: 162

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 99 · 157 | 117 · 120 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 88/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.6/g | 15.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6/g | 7.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 38 | 88 · 43 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 179/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.4/g | 30.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.7% | 72.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 41 · 19 | 28 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 2.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 10.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.8% | 78.9% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.53/g (lg 2.38) +6% · Key Forwards 3.34/g (lg 3.57) -6% · Forwards 3.94/g (lg 4.44) -11%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Forwards 5.79/g (lg 4.44) +30% · Key Forwards 4.62/g (lg 3.57) +29% · Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.51) +29%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 33 in 15g | 17/10g (1·1·2·1·2·1·0·3·1·5) | 17/8g | 120/57g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 11' 12' 31' 45' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 27 in 15g | 19/10g (1·2·2·2·4·3·2·0·3·0) | 11/8g | 88/60g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' 99' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 25 in 12g | 19/10g (2·2·2·3·3·1·3·0·2·1) | 6/4g | 43/31g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 10 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 10 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 31/76g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 3/14g | 29% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 21/52g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 14/38g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 12/30g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/8g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/18g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 8/26g | 30% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 16/45g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 3/6g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 30/94g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | no games | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 33% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/20g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Phillips | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/21g | 14% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 26 in 15g | 18/10g (3·1·3·0·1·3·0·3·1·3) | 19/10g | 112/72g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' 55' 66' 97' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 25 in 9g | 26/10g (1·1·4·2·5·2·0·3·5·3) | 9/3g | 29/18g | 83% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' 71' 82' 88' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 23 in 15g | 19/10g (3·3·2·2·4·1·0·1·2·1) | 0/5g | 37/36g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 92' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 19 in 15g | 16/10g (2·2·0·3·1·3·1·2·0·2) | 4/7g | 30/42g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 13 in 15g | 12/10g (1·1·2·1·2·2·1·1·1·0) | 5/8g | 24/64g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 13 in 14g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 3/5g | 17/35g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 12 in 15g | 9/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·4) | 1/3g | 4/14g | 37% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 12 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·1·2·2·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 21/36g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (2·0·3·1·2·0·0·0·3·1) | 17/16g | 142/128g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' 88' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 11 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/2g | 6/15g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 8 in 15g | 8/10g (0·1·3·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 7/8g | 42/67g | 44% | — | 🏉 3' 23' |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 21/77g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 42/117g | 24% | — | 🏉 17' 85' |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 33% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 2/25g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 35/40g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 48/84g | 10% | — | 🏉 44' 91' |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 38/96g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Poulter | FWD | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/23g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Riley Garcia | MID | no games | 5/10g (0·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 8/17g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Duryea | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 5/65g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 90% | 32 ✗ |
| Harry Sheezel | 27.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 6 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 25 ✗ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 25 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 17.5 | $1.91 | 46% | 16 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri | 17.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 17 ✓ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.86 | 66% | 27 ✓ |
| Bailey Dale | 27.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 13 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 26 ✓ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 25.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 25 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 24.5 | $1.92 | 62% | 25 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders | 19.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 23 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah | 19.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 12 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams | 18.5 | $1.91 | 46% | 17 ✓ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 18.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)