AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 98% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Geelong Cats by 75.1 vs the actual margin of 72 points. The game's 176 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 198. Geelong Cats led 75–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 72. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
98%
Richmond
2%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Geelong Cats carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1515 vs 1488). Recent form favours Richmond with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 75.1 points with a combined total of 198.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.03
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.1%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -59.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.1%
Total Points
Over 176.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W L L L L | 104.5 |
Richmond | W W L L L | 72.3 |
Avg Conceded
89.7
Geelong Cats
68.1
Richmond
Avg Margin
2.2
Geelong Cats
21.5
Richmond
Disposals
330.8
Geelong Cats
348.2
Richmond
Inside 50s
54.1
Geelong Cats
49.4
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 75 points
Predicted total: 198 · Line: +75.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.44
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.