# Geelong Cats v Richmond — AFL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 124 – 52 Richmond

_Geelong Cats put Richmond to the sword._

Half time: 75 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 98% / Richmond 2% · GMHBA Stadium · Sat, 05 July, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Jeremy Cameron (10' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jack Bowes (11' ×2), Patrick Dangerfield (25' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Brad Close (46' ×2), Shaun Mannagh (51' Tipped ⚡), Max Holmes (52'), George Stevens (55'), Shannon Neale (62' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Martin (76' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Henry (78' Tipped ⚡) · Richmond: Rhyan Mansell (7' ×3 1st), Maurice Rioli (91'), Toby Nankervis (69'), Jonty Faull (84'), Tom Brown (94')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 98% | Won |
| Richmond | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 75.1 predicted → 72 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 124–52 Richmond in AFL Round 17 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong Cats 124, Richmond 52 at GMHBA Stadium. Seventy-two points is already a hiding, but the quarter-by-quarter numbers make the final margin look almost restrained. Geelong led 75 to 16 at half time. That's a 59-point gap built inside two quarters, and Richmond spent the rest of the afternoon just trying not to let it get worse.

It didn't get much worse, in relative terms. Geelong actually slowed from there, adding 28 points in the third term and 21 in the last, while Richmond found 14 and 22 respectively. The scoreboard kept moving Geelong's way, but the concerning bit for Richmond isn't the second half, it's that the game was already dead by three-quarter time, 103 to 30.

The clearance count tells you why. Geelong won 42 to 33, and turned that into 66 inside 50s against Richmond's 45. Twenty-one extra forward entries is a lot of extra chances, and Geelong made them count with 20 marks inside 50 to Richmond's 11. That's not just more opportunity, that's cleaner execution once they got there.

Disposal efficiency backs it up: 75.0% for Geelong against 69.2% for Richmond. Geelong had more of the ball too, 387 disposals to 359, and won the contested count 128 to 111. Add marks overall, 115 to 92, and it's a side that had the ball more, used it better, and turned territory into scoreboard pressure at a rate Richmond couldn't match.

Interestingly, hit-outs were dead level at 41 apiece, so this wasn't a ruck mismatch deciding things. It was the midfield edge, 1004 to 973 in the pre-match ratings, showing up exactly where you'd expect, in clearances and second efforts. Richmond's forward line rating (1031) was actually the stronger of the two lines on paper, ahead of Geelong's 961, but a forward line can't do much when its midfield keeps handing over first use of the ball.

Form lines pointed at a contest closer than what played out. Richmond had won more of their last five (2.47 wins to Geelong's 1.40) and were conceding fewer points on average, 68.1 to Geelong's 89.7. Geelong's average margin over that stretch was a wafer-thin 2.2 points. None of that showed up here. Geelong scored well above their recent output and Richmond's usually tight defence had no answer once the clearance count started running away.

Alphr's model had Geelong at 98% to win and picked the margin almost to the point, tipping Geelong by 75.1 against an actual 72. The total came in lower, 176 points played against a projected 198, with the game slowing after half time rather than continuing at its opening rate. Two from three on the finer detail, and the pre-match read on Geelong's midfield edge over Richmond's forward strength held up about as well as it could.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 21 | 54 | 28 | 21 | 124 |
| Richmond | 8 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 52 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **387** | Disposals | 359 |
| **128** | Contested poss. | 111 |
| **42** | Clearances | 33 |
| **66** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **115** | Marks | 92 |
| **20** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **61** | Tackles | 56 |
| 41 | Hit-outs | 41 |
| **58** | Intercepts | 53 |
| **75.0%** | Disposal eff. | 69.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 98% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Geelong Cats by 75.1 vs the actual margin of 72 points. The game's 176 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 198. Geelong Cats led 75–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 72. The model went 2/3 on this match. Geelong Cats covered the 59.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.03 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 98.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -59.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 75 · Predicted total: 198

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 155 · 110 | 93 · 135 |
| Goal Assists | 6.1/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 78/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.7/g | 15.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.9/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 65.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 54 · 41 | 30 · 58 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 17.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.5/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 69.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 17 | 13 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.4/g | 10.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.1% | 78.6% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.61/g (lg 3.58) +29% · Rucks 0.62/g (lg 0.51) +22% · Midfielders 2.75/g (lg 2.38) +16%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.76/g (lg 3.58) +5% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0% · Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.43) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 48 in 15g | 37/10g (2·4·1·2·7·6·5·0·6·4) | 33/14g | 103/40g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 33' 71' 86' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 22 in 15g | 15/10g (2·2·2·2·2·1·1·1·2·0) | 3/2g | 17/19g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 19 in 13g | 15/10g (3·4·3·1·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 8/14g | 69/67g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 44' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 19 in 15g | 14/10g (0·0·1·1·1·5·1·0·4·1) | 2/1g | 21/14g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' 72' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 15 in 12g | 14/10g (3·0·2·2·1·2·1·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 8/10g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 12 in 13g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·2·0) | 4/4g | 34/23g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 11 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 5/5g | 41/40g | 68% | — | 🏉 46' 85' |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·1) | 8/8g | 40/50g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 7 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 12/34g | 40% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 7/20g | 42% | — | 🏉 11' 83' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 20/92g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 7/12g | 25/53g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 10/48g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/47g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Duncan | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/15g | 57/94g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/41g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | George Stevens | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 13/56g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 0 in 3g | 10/10g (2·1·2·2·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 8/9g | 3/5g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.80 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/63g | 2% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 21 in 15g | 12/10g (2·0·1·2·3·0·0·2·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (2·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 10 in 15g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·0·2·2·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 1/1g | 56% | — | 🏉 7' 59' 80' |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Jacob Blight | DEF | 3 in 6g | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 48% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/12g | 0/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jasper Alger | FWD | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 36 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 67% | 29 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.82 | 70% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 20.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 18.5 | $1.94 | 51% | 13 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.92 | 45% | 20 ✗ |
| Jeremy Cameron | 14.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 19 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | 24.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 27 ✗ |
| Tim Taranto | 24.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 25 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 23.5 | $1.80 | 49% | 20 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.82 | 67% | 26 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 19.5 | $1.80 | 53% | 21 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 17.5 | $1.82 | 50% | 16 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 15.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 18 ✗ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.96 | 63% | 17 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)