# Essendon v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 74 – 115 Gold Coast SUNS

_Gold Coast SUNS eclipse Essendon._

Half time: 41 – 45 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 4% / Gold Coast SUNS 96% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 05 July, 12:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Nate Caddy (28' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Angus Clarke (31'), Peter Wright (57' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Kako (68'), Archie May (75' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jye Caldwell (94') · Gold Coast SUNS: Bailey Humphrey (11' ×2 1st), Ethan Read (13' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben King (42' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Ned Moyle (72'), Noah Anderson (73' ×2), Jed Walter (91' Tipped ⚡), Touk Miller (66'), Ben Ainsworth (67' Tipped ⚡), Brayden Fiorini (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 96% | Won |
| Essendon | 4% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 36.4 predicted → 41 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 74–115 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 17 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at Marvel Stadium had this one filed under contest, not procession. Gold Coast SUNS led 45 to 41, four points the difference, and Essendon were still very much in it. Three-quarter time barely moved the ledger: 76 to 73, the margin down to three points after Essendon actually won the third term. Then the last quarter arrived and tore the script up. Essendon managed a single point after the break. Gold Coast SUNS piled on 39. Final score: 115 to 74, a 41-point gap that had nothing to do with anything before it.

That kind of finish usually comes down to who's still standing when it matters, and the disposal efficiency numbers back it up. Gold Coast SUNS finished at 76.3% to Essendon's 73.5%, not a chasm, but enough that when Essendon needed clean hands to arrest the slide, they didn't have them. Marks tell a similar story: 85 to 74 overall, and 12 to 8 inside forward 50, where Gold Coast SUNS were simply the tidier side taking their opportunities.

Essendon's one genuine avenue was the ruck, and they used it. Fifty-five hit-outs to 40 is a real advantage, the kind you'd expect to translate into first use of the ball around stoppages. It showed up in inside 50 count too, Essendon actually leading 55 to 53 for the game. Trouble is, winning the count means nothing if you can't finish it off, and the marks inside 50 gap explains why Essendon's forward entries kept turning into nothing.

Clearances went to Gold Coast SUNS 38 to 35, tackles 78 to 67, both modest edges rather than blowouts. None of the four-quarter stat sheet screams a 41-point margin. What it screams is a team that ground the contest down bit by bit and then cashed it all in over one brutal final term.

The pre-match numbers had this coming, even if not quite this shape. Gold Coast SUNS went in with the defence rating advantage, 1048 to 1027, and the ruck disparity going the other way didn't matter in the end. Recent form told the same tale before a ball was bounced: Gold Coast SUNS averaging 92.2 points a game across their last five against Essendon's 71.6, and conceding just 71.7 to Essendon's 86.2. Essendon arrived with a healthy average winning margin of 27.4 across that stretch, but Gold Coast SUNS came in hovering around square at negative 1.5, the sort of split that flatters neither side's confidence heading in.

Alphr's model had Gold Coast SUNS at 96% to win and picked the margin at 36.4, not far off the actual 41. The total was the miss, 159 projected against 189 delivered, this one just had more scoring in it than the sheet suggested, most of it arriving in one furious final quarter. Two from three on the night, and the head-to-head read held up where it counted.

Essendon leave with the irony intact: they won hit-outs by 15, won the inside 50 count, and still shipped 41 points at the death. Gold Coast SUNS leave with a statement in the ledger, and a scoreline that says exactly nothing about how tight it looked with a quarter still to play.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 18 | 23 | 32 | 1 | 74 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 19 | 26 | 31 | 39 | 115 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Disposals | **367** |
| 136 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| 35 | Clearances | **38** |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 53 |
| 74 | Marks | **85** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 67 | Tackles | **78** |
| **55** | Hit-outs | 40 |
| **67** | Intercepts | 66 |
| 73.5% | Disposal eff. | **76.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 96% probability. The predicted margin of 36.4 was reasonable against the actual 41-point result. The game's 189 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 159. Gold Coast SUNS led 41–45 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 41. The model went 2/3 on this match. Gold Coast SUNS covered the 19.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.33 (edge +20.4%) — model probability 95.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 36 · Predicted total: 159

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 77 · 124 | 149 · 105 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 104/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.7/g | 21.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.1/g | 10.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.7% | 66.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 58 · 44 | 27 · 41 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 152/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 21.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.3% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 23 | 15 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.2/g | 15.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.9% | 79.3% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.52/g (lg 1.29) +18% · Midfielders 2.42/g (lg 2.38) +2% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.44) +1%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.53/g (lg 1.29) +19% · Forwards 5.05/g (lg 4.44) +14% · Key Forwards 3.82/g (lg 3.58) +7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 19 in 10g | 19/10g (6·2·0·0·1·2·2·3·2·1) | 3/3g | 74/36g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 15 in 14g | 11/10g (0·2·2·3·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 3/1g | 14/9g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' 45' 61' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 12 in 13g | 10/10g (2·1·3·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 27/31g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 11 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·1·2·2·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 27/29g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 9/11g | 77/88g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 50% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 30/85g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 10/18g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 4/5g | 12/30g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/23g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 9/30g | 38% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (3·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Archer May | KF | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 78' 80' |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/17g | 60/130g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 5/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 8/59g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 12/51g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/26g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 38 in 14g | 21/10g (1·5·1·3·2·2·1·1·2·3) | 15/6g | 31/16g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' 63' 96' 76' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 27 in 13g | 20/10g (3·3·1·1·4·3·1·1·1·2) | 6/8g | 28/50g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 16 in 13g | 11/10g (1·3·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·2) | 2/2g | 4/5g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 15 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·2·1) | 4/11g | 8/27g | 48% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 12 in 14g | 10/10g (0·4·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·2) | 2/2g | 2/8g | 42% | — | 🏉 11' 85' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 11 in 13g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·2·2·0·0·2·2) | 6/6g | 14/20g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 10 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/11g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (2·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 33' 47' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 12/24g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/16g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/6g | 4/16g | 34% | — | 🏉 73' 87' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 4/10g | 32% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 4/18g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 4/19g | 26% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 5/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Alex Sexton | FWD | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 24/27g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 9% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/15g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 40 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.92 | 66% | 15 ✓ |
| Nic Martin ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.92 | 65% | 22 ✓ |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $2.05 | 62% | 20 ✓ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 27 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.80 | 43% | 12 ✓ |
| Will Setterfield | 21.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 22 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 29.5 | $1.96 | 47% | 30 ✗ |
| Touk Miller | 27.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 25 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.82 | 66% | 15 ✓ |
| John Noble | 24.5 | $1.98 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 24 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 19.5 | $2.00 | 40% | 20 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli | 19.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r17-essendon-v-gold-coast-suns
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)