# Carlton v Collingwood — AFL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 59 – 115 Collingwood

_Collingwood demolish Carlton._

Half time: 29 – 53 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 38% / Collingwood 62% · MCG · Fri, 04 July, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Zac Williams (13' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jesse Motlop (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Orazio Fantasia (50' Tipped ⚡), Ashton Moir (70'), Mitch McGovern (75') · Collingwood: Will Hoskin-Elliott (7' 1st), Jamie Elliott (8' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Tim Membrey (18' Tipped ⚡), Daniel McStay (25' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Nick Daicos (38'), Lachlan Sullivan (80'), Ned Long (86'), Jack Crisp (88'), Brody Mihocek (88' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 62% | Won |
| Carlton | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 32.2 predicted → 56 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 59–115 Collingwood in AFL Round 17 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood beat Carlton by 56 at the MCG, 115 to 59. Here's the complication: Carlton won the clearance count, 42 to 33, and also won the hitouts, 45 to 36. Sides that dominate those two categories don't normally get beaten by 56. This one did, and the gap between the clearance stat and the scoreboard is the whole story.

Carlton also went into the game rated stronger in every position group. Midfield 1148 to 1084, forwards 1085 to 1069, defence 1076 to 1051, ruck 1071 to 1055. On paper this was a Carlton side with the tools to control it. Collingwood were simply more efficient with what they had, and it showed up everywhere except the stoppages.

The disposal and possession numbers tell that part clearly. Collingwood finished with 390 disposals to Carlton's 350, and their contested possession count was well clear too, 135 to 117. They went inside 50 sixty times against Carlton's 49, and were the cleaner side once they got there, 16 marks inside 50 to 13. Add in a disposal efficiency edge, 74.4 per cent to 72.1, and you've got a team that made its entries count.

Collingwood also brought more physical pressure, laying 60 tackles to Carlton's 46, and they read the ball in defence better, picking off 67 intercepts to Carlton's 58.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 21 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 59 |
| Collingwood | 27 | 26 | 52 | 10 | 115 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 350 | Disposals | **390** |
| 117 | Contested poss. | **135** |
| **42** | Clearances | 33 |
| 49 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| 89 | Marks | **111** |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 46 | Tackles | **60** |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 36 |
| 58 | Intercepts | **67** |
| 72.1% | Disposal eff. | **74.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 32.2 but the actual margin was 56 points. The game's 174 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 158. Collingwood led 29–53 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 2/3 on this match. Collingwood covered the 27.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.22 (edge -20.4%) — model probability 61.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +27.5 @ $1.91 (edge -20.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 161.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 32 · Predicted total: 158

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 100 · 107 | 156 · 91 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 5.7/g |
| Disposals | 86/g | 116/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.5/g | 20.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.5/g | 11/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.7% | 69.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 42 · 41 | 32 · 45 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 168/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.5/g | 19.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68% | 67.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 27 · 26 | 14 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.1/g | 11.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.2% | 81.6% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Forwards 4.03/g (lg 4.43) -9% · Defenders 1.17/g (lg 1.29) -9% · Midfielders 2.13/g (lg 2.38) -11%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.62/g (lg 0.51) +22% · Defenders 1.32/g (lg 1.29) +2% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.43) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 27 in 14g | 21/10g (4·3·2·3·3·3·2·1·0·0) | 26/11g | 110/54g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (2·0·0·0·4·1·2·2·1·1) | 2/12g | 13/33g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 16' 94' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 11 in 15g | 9/10g (3·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·1) | 5/6g | 13/22g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.73 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 79' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/17g | 39/85g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 9 in 13g | 9/10g (0·1·0·2·0·2·0·3·1·0) | 3/5g | 17/33g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 9 in 15g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·4·0) | 11/9g | 32/42g | 22% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 27% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 14/45g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Orazio Fantasia | FWD | 5 in 4g | 12/10g (0·0·4·1·1·1·1·0·2·2) | 12/7g | 47/34g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.75 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 16/39g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 5/21g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 16/32g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 11/34g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/15g | 9/65g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/7g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/13g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 67% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry O'Farrell | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 7/72g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/29g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/29g | 2% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 37 in 15g | 29/10g (2·5·1·6·1·5·5·1·2·1) | 24/19g | 204/127g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 48' 75' 77' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 26 in 13g | 21/10g (3·2·1·4·1·2·4·1·1·2) | 12/11g | 144/86g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 88' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 20 in 14g | 14/10g (1·2·1·0·1·3·1·1·2·2) | 31/13g | 49/24g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (0·3·1·0·1·3·0·2·2·0) | 15/12g | 36/33g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' 61' 67' 83' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 9 in 15g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 3/7g | 27/52g | 64% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 17/15g | 102/113g | 52% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2) | 10/11g | 27/51g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/18g | 49/147g | 46% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 5 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/9g | 38/63g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/16g | 32% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 14/132g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 6/24g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 3/23g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 2/10g | 33% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 10/23g | 80/178g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 30/80g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Oleg Markov | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/32g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 39/106g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/69g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 56/160g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tom Mitchell | MID | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 25/69g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Wil Parker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 17% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 18 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 23.5 | $1.89 | 59% | 25 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 23.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Sam Docherty ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 22 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 18.5 | $1.96 | 53% | 20 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands | 18.5 | $1.99 | 59% | 24 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.82 | 59% | 12 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning | 15.5 | $1.94 | 49% | 11 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 29.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 36 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos | 28.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 27 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 23.5 | $1.92 | 45% | 22 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.96 | 72% | 16 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 17.5 | $1.91 | 52% | 17 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 17.5 | $1.85 | 53% | 11 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)