# Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 120 – 92 Port Adelaide

_Brisbane Lions roar past Port Adelaide._

Half time: 62 – 41 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 92% / Port Adelaide 8% · Gabba · Sat, 05 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (12' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (18' ×5), Callum Ah Chee (24' Tipped ⚡), Hugh McCluggage (26'), Will Ashcroft (27'), Eric Hipwood (34' Tipped ⚡), Josh Dunkley (44'), Lachie Neale (84'), Kai Lohmann (86'), Darcy Fort (96'), Logan Morris (69' Tipped ⚡), Levi Ashcroft (79') · Port Adelaide: Willie Rioli (3' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Mitch Georgiades (6' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Sam Powell-Pepper (13' ×2), Jack Lukosius (46' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Joe Richards (91'), Jason Horne-Francis (93')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 92% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 29.3 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 17 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 120–92 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 17 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seventy-five point three per cent. That's Brisbane's disposal efficiency at the Gabba, against Port Adelaide's 68.9, and it's the number that explains how a team that lost the clearance count, the hit-out count and the tackle count by wide margins still walked away with a 120-92 win.

Because on paper this should have been closer. Port Adelaide had more disposals, 346 to 339. More contested possessions, 115 to 112. Their ruck division belted Brisbane's, 45 hit-outs to 33, and they laid 51 tackles to Brisbane's 35. Inside 50s were locked at 55 apiece. By every measure of who worked harder for the ball, Port were competitive, if not on top.

None of it mattered, because Brisbane made theirs count and Port didn't. A gap of more than six percentage points in disposal efficiency, across 339 kicks and handballs, is the difference between a team that turns pressure into scoreboard damage and one that just turns the ball over trying.

The scoreboard shows how early that gap opened. Brisbane led 52-20 at quarter time, already a 32-point buffer built on clean use rather than contest wins. By half time it was 62-41, and by the last change 94-66. Port kept the ball moving forward all night, evidenced by that even split in inside 50s, but Brisbane were finishing possessions and Port were finishing tackles.

Marks inside 50 tell a similar tale, 15 to 14, near enough to even. But Brisbane's overall marking count, 97 to 87, and their intercept differential, 56 to 50, point to a side controlling the ball in transit even while Port were putting bodies over it. Contested footy is only half the equation. What you do with clean use is the other half, and Brisbane owned that half on Saturday.

This result runs against what the numbers suggested going in. Port were rated stronger everywhere: midfield 1095 to 1046, forwards 1048 to 985, defence 1027 to 969, ruck 980 to 942. Recent form had them clearly the better outfit too, nearly four wins from their last five games against Brisbane's just over two, and a positive average scoring margin of roughly 7.8 points against Brisbane's own positive mark of about 6.1. On Saturday's stat sheet, Port's edge in the contest actually showed up, in the clearances, the hit-outs, the tackles. It just never translated into scoreboard pressure the way those ratings implied it should.

Alphr's model still called it right.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 52 | 10 | 32 | 26 | 120 |
| Port Adelaide | 20 | 21 | 25 | 26 | 92 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| 339 | Disposals | **346** |
| 112 | Contested poss. | **115** |
| **38** | Clearances | 36 |
| 55 | Inside 50s | 55 |
| **97** | Marks | 87 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 14 |
| 35 | Tackles | **51** |
| 33 | Hit-outs | **45** |
| **56** | Intercepts | 50 |
| **75.3%** | Disposal eff. | 68.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 92% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 29.3 vs the actual margin of 28 points. The game's 212 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 182. Brisbane Lions led 62–41 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.20 (edge +8.4%) — model probability 91.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -26.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 29 · Predicted total: 182

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 134 · 116 | 108 · 121 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 85/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.9/g | 16.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 8.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.5% | 69.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 37 · 33 | 30 · 44 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 160/g | 144/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.1/g | 21.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 69.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 20 | 27 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 125/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.1% | 76.1% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.48/g (lg 1.29) +15% · Forwards 4.45/g (lg 4.44) +0% · Key Forwards 3.42/g (lg 3.58) -4%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.35/g (lg 4.44) -2% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.58) -6% · Midfielders 2.07/g (lg 2.38) -13%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 30 in 14g | 23/10g (4·0·2·0·3·2·2·0·5·5) | 2/1g | 25/14g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 21 in 15g | 11/10g (2·4·0·3·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 22/10g | 128/96g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 20 in 15g | 8/10g (0·3·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 8/8g | 69/78g | 70% | — | 🏉 18' 20' 89' 86' 89' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 19 in 14g | 14/10g (2·0·1·3·1·1·4·1·1·0) | 3/8g | 33/59g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 17 in 15g | 14/10g (2·0·0·3·0·2·1·2·1·3) | 10/8g | 73/77g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 14 in 13g | 10/10g (0·0·3·1·0·3·1·2·0·0) | 20/14g | 163/86g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 29' 74' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 9/10g | 65/98g | 46% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·4·0·1) | 0/9g | 10/86g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 19/21g | 54% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 36% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 11/27g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/18g | 37/78g | 26% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 6/22g | 26% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 41/88g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 6/33g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 19/15g | 130/148g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 5/36g | 20% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 3 in 9g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 6/7g | 10/17g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 6/61g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 5/16g | 24% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/40g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 4/112g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 23/108g | 0% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 38 in 15g | 26/10g (3·2·1·2·1·3·1·7·1·5) | 5/4g | 4/3g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' 60' 74' 77' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 22 in 14g | 18/10g (3·3·1·2·0·2·2·1·1·3) | 5/3g | 2/2g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.50 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 98' 92' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 16 in 14g | 12/10g (1·3·0·2·1·0·0·2·1·2) | 1/13g | 1/10g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 16 in 15g | 10/10g (2·1·1·2·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 8/10g | 6/9g | 72% | — | 🏉 13' 57' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 10 in 13g | 7/10g (3·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 64% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 9 in 14g | 7/10g (2·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 8 in 15g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 9/8g | 10/8g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 3/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 9/15g | 4/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/13g | 8/9g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Jackson | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 1 in 2g | 12/10g (2·2·1·2·2·0·0·2·1·0) | 4/10g | 3/8g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 79' 67' |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 3/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 25.5 | $2.00 | 54% | 29 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft | 25.5 | $2.00 | 52% | 23 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 25.5 | $1.77 | 51% | 23 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 24.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 29 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 22.5 | $2.00 | 51% | 17 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 16 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 18.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 19 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.94 | 41% | 19 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Rozee | 27.5 | $2.00 | 59% | 31 ✗ |
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 31 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.94 | 81% | 17 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 20.5 | $1.78 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 19.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 27 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 18.5 | $2.05 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell | 17.5 | $1.85 | 56% | 19 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)