# Adelaide Crows v Melbourne — AFL Round 17 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 90 – 77 Melbourne

_Adelaide Crows surge back to peck holes in Melbourne._

Half time: 38 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 71% / Melbourne 29% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 06 July, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Izak Rankine (16' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zac Taylor (83'), Darcy Fogarty (87' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Daniel Curtin (73'), Ben Keays (78' Tipped ⚡) · Melbourne: Trent Rivers (8' 1st), Kysaiah Pickett (30' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jacob van Rooyen (32' ×2), Jake Melksham (37' ×4), Tom Sparrow (69'), Bayley Fritsch (85' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 71% | Won |
| Melbourne | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.1 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 17, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 90–77 Melbourne in AFL Round 17 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model liked Adelaide Crows by 10.1 points with a combined total near 171 and gave them a 71% win probability. The Crows won by 13, 90 to 77, and the total landed on 167. Close enough to call it a good week for the numbers, but the path there was nothing like a straight line.

Melbourne actually led at the main break, 43 to 38. For a side rated the weaker outfit going in, midfield 1025 to 955 and ruck 1051 to 1031 in their favour, that's a decent return through two quarters. Adelaide had the ratings edge in defence, 1061 to 1020, and it showed only later. Anyone reading just the final margin would miss that the Crows spent the first half chasing the game.

The third quarter is where it turned. Adelaide outscored Melbourne 33 to 13 in that period, going from four points down to fifteen points up, 71 to 56 at the three-quarter time bell. That's the passage that decided the contest. The last quarter was tighter than the ladder line suggests: Melbourne actually won it, 21 to 19, but the gap built in the third term was too much to chase down.

Look at the guts of the stat sheet and the disconnect between the numbers and the result is obvious. Melbourne piled up 392 disposals to 325 and moved it better too, 76.1% efficiency against 67.4%. They also won the aerial contest clearly, 110 marks to 82. By most old-school reads, that's the winning team's stat line. It wasn't enough on the day.

Adelaide's method was simpler: win it at the source and get it forward. Sam Berry's absence from any hitout column aside, the Crows' ruck division dominated, 41 hitouts to 28, and that fed a clearance edge of 33 to 27. From there Adelaide ran it inside 50 a massive 55 times to Melbourne's 42. Once it got forward they made it count too, 17 marks inside 50 to Melbourne's 8, which is really the number that explains a 90-point score built on nowhere near as much total ball use.

The contested stuff was tighter than either the disposal count or the scoreboard suggests. Melbourne edged contested possessions 133 to 129, tackles were locked at 53 apiece, and intercepts were basically shared, 81 to 79 in Melbourne's favour. None of that separation shows up cleanly in the final margin, which tells you the game was decided more by what each side did with won ball than by who won more of it.

Form and ratings had this one right in outline. Adelaide came in averaging 103.6 points a game across their last five to Melbourne's 73.8, and conceding just 79.9 to Melbourne's 98.5. The model's pre-match numbers, Adelaide 1507 to Melbourne's 1539 overall rating but a 10.1-point tip in Adelaide's favour, matched the shape of how it actually played out: a competitive, sometimes ugly contest that Adelaide's third-

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 15 | 23 | 33 | 19 | 90 |
| Melbourne | 12 | 31 | 13 | 21 | 77 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Disposals | **392** |
| 129 | Contested poss. | **133** |
| **33** | Clearances | 27 |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| 82 | Marks | **110** |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 53 | Tackles | 53 |
| **41** | Hit-outs | 28 |
| 79 | Intercepts | **81** |
| 67.4% | Disposal eff. | **76.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 71% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Adelaide Crows by 10.1 vs the actual margin of 13 points. Total score prediction of 171 was close to the actual 167, within 4 points. Adelaide Crows trailed 38–43 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 90–77. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.20 (edge -12.0%) — model probability 71.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -28.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 10 · Predicted total: 171

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 158 · 101 | 89 · 136 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.9/g | 20/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.9/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.8% | 68.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 53 · 35 | 61 · 38 |
| Goal Assists | 5.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 130/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 25/g | 21.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 68.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 13 | 14 · 27 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.7/g | 11.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.5% | 81.1% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.51) +33% · Defenders 1.44/g (lg 1.29) +12% · Midfielders 2.17/g (lg 2.35) -8%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.38/g (lg 1.29) +7% · Midfielders 2.3/g (lg 2.35) -2% · Forwards 4.3/g (lg 4.48) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 33 in 15g | 18/10g (1·3·1·3·0·2·2·1·0·5) | 3/4g | 49/39g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 82% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 29 in 14g | 17/10g (4·0·2·3·4·1·2·0·0·1) | 11/7g | 109/66g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 87' 67' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 25 in 15g | 14/10g (1·0·2·2·0·1·3·3·2·0) | 8/7g | 58/69g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 25 in 12g | 19/10g (0·1·2·2·1·5·3·3·0·2) | 2/2g | 55/38g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 22 in 14g | 12/10g (2·2·2·1·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 28/12g | 275/123g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 55' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 17 in 15g | 11/10g (1·1·2·2·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 7/3g | 56/31g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 42' 46' 69' 80' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (1·1·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 11/20g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 10 in 15g | 8/10g (0·0·3·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 7/8g | 25/49g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 8 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 16/42g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 5/13g | 28% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 5/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/1g | 1/34g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 4/36g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 31/114g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 8/74g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/42g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 19% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/44g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/25g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Murphy | FWD | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 44/65g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 18/133g | 4% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 27 in 12g | 25/10g (5·1·1·2·2·5·0·3·3·3) | 7/5g | 19/12g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 40' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 18 in 14g | 17/10g (2·2·2·0·1·2·1·3·2·2) | 16/8g | 29/15g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 16 in 11g | 15/10g (0·0·0·1·4·3·1·1·0·5) | 15/11g | 8/9g | 70% | — | 🏉 37' 81' 90' 65' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 13 in 15g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 13/12g | 15/17g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (2·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 3/6g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 8 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/12g | 36% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (2·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 10/18g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 6 in 8g | 10/10g (3·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 3/2g | 6/6g | 72% | — | 🏉 32' 35' |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 9/17g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/10g | 3/13g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/10g | 7/16g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Jefferson | KF | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/11g | 12% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/15g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/41g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/16g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 25.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 21 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 25 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 66% | 25 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 16 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 21 ✗ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 18.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 12 ✓ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 16 ✓ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Clayton Oliver ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 23 ✓ |
| Jake Bowey | 21.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 26 ✗ |
| Jack Viney | 20.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 30 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers | 20.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 23 ✗ |
| Max Gawn | 19.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 16 ✓ |
| Christian Salem | 18.5 | $1.99 | 47% | 23 ✗ |
| Harvey Langford | 18.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 17 ✓ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 24 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)