Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
71%
Melbourne
29%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Melbourne carry a 31-point ELO rating advantage (1539 vs 1507). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 10.1 points with a combined total of 171.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.20
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -28.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Total Points
Under 171.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W W L L | 103.6 |
Melbourne | W W L L L | 73.8 |
Avg Conceded
79.9
Adelaide Crows
98.5
Melbourne
Avg Margin
12.3
Adelaide Crows
-2.6
Melbourne
Disposals
369.2
Adelaide Crows
349.8
Melbourne
Inside 50s
57.3
Adelaide Crows
49.3
Melbourne
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1539 vs 1507), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.20).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: +10.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
-0.31
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.