# Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 96 – 105 Western Bulldogs

_Western Bulldogs muzzle a gallant Sydney Swans._

Half time: 44 – 53 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 53% / Western Bulldogs 47% · SCG · Fri, 27 June, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Jake Lloyd (8'), Chad Warner (18'), Tom Papley (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Isaac Heeney (51' ×5 Tipped ⚡), James Jordon (57'), Justin McInerney (65'), James Rowbottom (78'), Final quarter (28m 29s)Brodie Grundy (63'), Jack Buller (70' Tipped ⚡) · Western Bulldogs: Sam Darcy (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Matthew Kennedy (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Rhylee West (27' Tipped ⚡), Aaron Naughton (38' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Joel Freijah (67' ×4), Lachlan Bramble (73'), Marcus Bontempelli (79'), James Harmes (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 53% | Lost |
| Western Bulldogs | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 96–105 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 16 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine points. That's where this one sat from midway through the second quarter onwards, and it never moved again.

Western Bulldogs led by three at the first break, 26-23, a scrap. Then they found another six points before half time and turned that into a nine-point buffer, 53-44, and just sat on it. Three-quarter time: 90-81. Full time: 105-96. Same margin, quarter after quarter. Whatever Sydney Swans threw at it in the second half, they couldn't shift it an inch.

Given the disposal count, that's the strange part. Sydney Swans won the footy, 355 disposals to 336, and won it clearly in the contest, 135 contested possessions to 112, with 38 clearances to 35. They also dominated the ruck, 52 hit-outs to 24, which on paper should have handed them first use of the ball all day. It didn't translate into scoreboard pressure the way it needed to.

The gap that actually mattered was inside forward 50. Western Bulldogs took 18 marks inside the arc to Sydney Swans's 13, and in a game decided by nine points, that's the difference between a shot on goal and a scramble. Sydney Swans piled on the defensive effort, 78 tackles to 51, and that's a genuine work-rate gap, but tackles don't put points on the board. Clean hands in the forward line do, and that's where Western Bulldogs had it won.

It lines up with what the sides brought in. Western Bulldogs came in rated stronger everywhere that counts forward of centre, 1086 to 956 in the forward lines, 1117 to 968 in the ruck despite getting beaten badly on hit-outs, and 1114 to 1010 in defence. Sydney Swans's recent scoring form was the better of the two, 98.4 points a game against 72.7, but Western Bulldogs' win rate over the last five, 3.6 to 2.3, and their average winning margin of 21.6 points said this was a side used to getting the job done regardless of how the ball-use numbers read.

Alphr's model had Western Bulldogs the value here even if the head-to-head price didn't say so, with a rating gap of 1582 to 1492 and a tip for Western Bulldogs by 8.6. The final margin landed at nine. That's about as sharp as a margin read gets. The model did have Sydney Swans favoured to win outright at 53%, which didn't hold up, and it pegged the total at 159 against a final count of 201, a 42-point miss on scoring output. One correct call out of three for this one: the margin nailed, the winner and the total both off.

Western Bulldogs backed in as underdogs by the market and covered the 10.5-point line without much fuss. Sydney Swans had the better process stats to hang their hat on. Western Bulldogs had the ones that show up on the scoreboard, and they had them from the second quarter on.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 23 | 21 | 37 | 15 | 96 |
| Western Bulldogs | 26 | 27 | 37 | 15 | 105 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **355** | Disposals | 336 |
| **135** | Contested poss. | 112 |
| **38** | Clearances | 35 |
| **50** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| **91** | Marks | 84 |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| **78** | Tackles | 51 |
| **52** | Hit-outs | 24 |
| **59** | Intercepts | 56 |
| **67.6%** | Disposal eff. | 66.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Western Bulldogs defied the model's 53% prediction for Sydney Swans, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Western Bulldogs by 8.6 vs the actual margin of 9 points. The game's 201 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 159. The model went 1/3 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 10.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.68 (edge +16.1%) — model probability 53.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 9 · Predicted total: 159

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Sydney Swans | 90 – 55 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2026 | R7 | Western Bulldogs | 60 – 126 | Sydney Swans |
| 2024 | R20 | Sydney Swans | 48 – 87 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R11 | Western Bulldogs | 88 – 102 | Sydney Swans |
| 2023 | R18 | Sydney Swans | 78 – 76 | Western Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 83 · 110 | 106 · 115 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.3/g | 15.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.6/g | 7.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.2% | 69.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 54 · 43 | 84 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 181/g |
| Inside 50s | 24/g | 31.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.7/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.9% | 72.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 17 | 27 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.1/g | 10.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.9% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.35) +3% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.56) -5% · Forwards 3.97/g (lg 4.47) -11%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.58/g (lg 0.51) +14% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.35) +1% · Forwards 4.39/g (lg 4.47) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 20 in 14g | 13/10g (1·2·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·3) | 9/11g | 92/76g | 82% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 17 in 14g | 15/10g (2·2·1·1·0·2·3·1·1·2) | 12/12g | 122/96g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 64' 70' 76' 97' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 16 in 11g | 14/10g (1·3·2·1·1·1·1·2·1·1) | 5/5g | 40/35g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 14 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·1·0·2·0) | 6/4g | 43/48g | 64% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 11 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 11/39g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 22/60g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 1/7g | 9/20g | 30% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Aaron Francis | KF | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·3·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 5/17g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 4/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 21/55g | 22% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 17/45g | 34% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/12g | 11/76g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 18/114g | 14% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/20g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 20/81g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 1 in 4g | 12/10g (1·4·0·2·3·1·1·0·0·0) | 16/9g | 139/83g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 55' |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 6/114g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 29/40g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 17/85g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/45g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 16/30g | 28% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 23 in 14g | 18/10g (3·3·1·3·0·1·3·0·3·1) | 11/8g | 6/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 46' 47' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 22 in 14g | 19/10g (1·3·3·2·2·4·1·0·1·2) | 4/5g | 3/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 22 in 8g | 25/10g (2·1·1·4·2·5·2·0·3·5) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 83% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.12 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 17 in 14g | 15/10g (1·2·2·0·3·1·3·1·2·0) | 2/6g | 1/4g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 65' |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 13 in 13g | 13/10g (0·0·1·2·1·3·2·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 13 in 14g | 12/10g (0·1·1·2·1·2·2·1·1·1) | 3/9g | 1/4g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 13 in 13g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 2/3g | 2/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 12 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·2·2·0·0) | 4/5g | 2/3g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 11 in 9g | 12/10g (1·2·0·3·1·2·0·0·0·3) | 16/15g | 9/7g | 64% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 11 in 13g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 9 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 63% | — | — |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·4·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 2/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 35% | — | 🏉 67' 83' 86' 72' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 8 in 14g | 8/10g (0·0·1·3·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 4/10g | 2/5g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 3/6g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 12/14g | 2/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/5g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.80 | 70% | 30 ✗ |
| Isaac Heeney | 23.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 19 ✓ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 22 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts | 21.5 | $1.85 | 47% | 13 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney | 21.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 17 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey | 20.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 24 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy | 18.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 23 ✗ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | 26.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| Bailey Dale | 25.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 25 ✓ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 25.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 18 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 24.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Ed Richards | 24.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 16 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams | 20.5 | $1.85 | 56% | 18 ✓ |
| Joel Freijah | 19.5 | $1.79 | 57% | 23 ✗ |
| Tim English | 18.5 | $1.67 | 52% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)