AI Game Review
Western Bulldogs defied the model's 53% prediction for Sydney Swans, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Western Bulldogs by 8.6 vs the actual margin of 9 points. The game's 201 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 159. The model went 1/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
53%
Western Bulldogs
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Sydney Swans a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 90-point ELO rating advantage (1582 vs 1492). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 8.6 points with a combined total of 159.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @2.68
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.1%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.1%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 98.4 |
Western Bulldogs | W W W W L | 72.7 |
Avg Conceded
72.3
Sydney Swans
75.5
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
9.2
Sydney Swans
21.6
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
356.5
Sydney Swans
345.1
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
47.1
Sydney Swans
45.1
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 159 · Line: -8.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
-0.12
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
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