AI Game Review
Western Bulldogs defied the model's 53% prediction for Sydney Swans — a notable result. The margin model was sharp — predicting Western Bulldogs by 8.6 vs the actual margin of 9 points. The game's 201 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 159. The model went 1/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
53%
Western Bulldogs
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Sydney Swans a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Sydney Swans counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 242-point ELO rating advantage (1695 vs 1453). The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 8.6 points with a combined total of 159.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @2.68
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.1%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.1%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | WWWLL | 69.6 |
Western Bulldogs | WWWLL | 113.2 |
Avg Conceded
82.4
Sydney Swans
72.0
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-12.8
Sydney Swans
41.2
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
352.2
Sydney Swans
397.0
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
Sydney Swans
50.0
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 159 · Line: -8.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
-0.12
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.