AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 31.5 but the actual margin was 68 points. Adelaide Crows led 14–55 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 68. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
12%
Adelaide Crows
88%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 88%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Adelaide Crows carry a 63-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1464). The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 31.5 points with a combined total of 163.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.10
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.0%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.0%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | W W W L L | 80.0 |
Adelaide Crows | W W W L L | 109.1 |
Avg Conceded
83.6
Richmond
96.2
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-7.0
Richmond
6.0
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
365.7
Richmond
332.9
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
55.3
Richmond
43.8
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
88%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 31 points
Predicted total: 163 · Line: -31.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
-0.29
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.