# Richmond v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 54 – 122 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows put Richmond to the sword._

Half time: 14 – 55 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 12% / Adelaide Crows 88% · MCG · Sun, 29 June, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Hugo Ralphsmith (33'), Sam Banks (39'), Luke Trainor (70'), Seth Campbell (86'), Tom Lynch (91' Tipped ⚡), Jasper Alger (70' ×2), Rhyan Mansell (75') · Adelaide Crows: Max Michalanney (3' ×3 1st), Josh Rachele (9' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (35' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (47' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Curtin (52' ×2), Darcy Fogarty (55' Tipped ⚡), Sam Berry (73'), Taylor Walker (79' Tipped ⚡), Reilly OBrien (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 88% | Won |
| Richmond | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 31.5 predicted → 68 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 54–122 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 16 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seventeen marks inside 50 to seven. That's the number that tells you everything about how Adelaide Crows put Richmond away 122-54 at the MCG, because it means the Crows weren't just getting the ball forward, they were catching it clean once they got there.

The scoreboard was lopsided from the first break. Adelaide led 17-1 at quarter time, then 55-14 at half time, then 85-32 at three-quarter time. Richmond never found a way to slow the bleeding, and the last quarter just added to the total, 37 points to 22, before the final siren read 122-54.

The disposal count backs up the eye test: 397 to 307, with the Crows finding targets at 72.9% efficiency against Richmond's 69.0%. Adelaide also won contested ball, 142 to 114, despite Richmond actually winning the clearance count 42 to 35. That's an odd split, Richmond got first hands on the ball out of stoppages more often, but couldn't turn it into anything once it was loose, and Adelaide made them pay for every uncontested possession they conceded.

Territory told the same story. Adelaide went inside 50 fifty-nine times to Richmond's forty, and once there, that seventeen-to-seven marks advantage inside forward 50 turned pressure into scoreboard damage rather than stoppages. Adelaide's ruck division also got on top, 47 hit-outs to 34, giving their midfield first use more often than the raw clearance numbers suggest.

Defensively, Adelaide read the play better all day, finishing with 70 intercepts to Richmond's 52. That's the number that explains why Richmond's forward entries so rarely turned into anything: the Crows were picking off ball in transit before it ever became a shot on goal.

None of this should come as a shock given what each side brought in. Adelaide rated higher across every position, midfield 1000 to 988, forwards 969 to 907, defence 1068 to 1015, ruck 969 to 952, and their form lined up with it. Adelaide were averaging 109.1 points a game coming in with a positive margin of 5.96, while Richmond were leaking 83.6 a game and running an average margin of minus 7.0. Richmond's one form edge, more inside 50s per game on average (55.3 to 43.8), simply didn't survive contact with an Adelaide side that turned every entry against them into an intercept.

Alphr's model backed Adelaide at 88% and got the winner right without much drama. Where it fell short was the margin: 31.5 points predicted, 68 delivered, more than double the projected gap. The total of 163 combined points wasn't far off reality either way. Two from three isn't a bad return on a match this lopsided, but a scoreline like this is a reminder that a strong favourite covering big can still blow well past what any model expects on paper.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 1 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 54 |
| Adelaide Crows | 17 | 38 | 30 | 37 | 122 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 307 | Disposals | **397** |
| 114 | Contested poss. | **142** |
| **42** | Clearances | 35 |
| 40 | Inside 50s | **59** |
| 68 | Marks | **127** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| 51 | Tackles | **56** |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **47** |
| 52 | Intercepts | **70** |
| 69.0% | Disposal eff. | **72.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 31.5 but the actual margin was 68 points. Adelaide Crows led 14–55 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 68. The model went 2/3 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 40.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.10 (edge -3.0%) — model probability 87.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +40.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 32 · Predicted total: 163

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 87 · 125 | 148 · 95 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 78/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.7/g | 20.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.4/g | 8.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 64.3% | 67.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 53 | 48 · 35 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.9/g | 24.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.8% | 67.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 21 | 6 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.9/g | 10.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 79% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.37/g (lg 1.29) +6% · Midfielders 2.37/g (lg 2.38) +0% · Forwards 4.25/g (lg 4.44) -4%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.55/g (lg 3.57) +27% · Rucks 0.62/g (lg 0.51) +22% · Midfielders 2.73/g (lg 2.38) +15%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 20 in 14g | 11/10g (0·2·0·1·2·3·0·0·2·1) | 2/1g | 15/20g | 53% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 18 in 12g | 16/10g (1·1·2·3·0·2·2·2·0·3) | 17/11g | 149/66g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 10 in 14g | 9/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·2·2·1·0) | 2/9g | 29/45g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/11g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 32/110g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 24/38g | 52% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 11/32g | 28% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/45g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 26/87g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/18g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Blight | DEF | 3 in 5g | 3/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 7/35g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 7/13g | 29/84g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/21g | 7% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/35g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jasper Alger | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 70' 87' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Mykelti Lefau | KF | no games | 14/10g (0·2·1·3·1·2·0·1·2·2) | 0/0g | 7/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.55 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/88g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 16/136g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 24/53g | 20% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 28 in 13g | 19/10g (3·4·0·2·3·4·1·2·0·0) | 14/6g | 17/9g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 28 in 14g | 14/10g (1·1·3·1·3·0·2·2·1·0) | 2/2g | 4/5g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' 66' 81' 89' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 25 in 14g | 17/10g (3·1·0·2·2·0·1·3·3·2) | 2/7g | 7/11g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 23 in 11g | 21/10g (4·0·1·2·2·1·5·3·3·0) | 6/3g | 8/6g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 63' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 20 in 13g | 14/10g (4·2·2·2·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 39/13g | 46/25g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 16 in 14g | 12/10g (2·1·1·2·2·1·1·1·0·1) | 3/3g | 9/7g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 11 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/8g | 61/92g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 10 in 14g | 8/10g (0·0·0·3·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 5/13g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 8 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 5 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 52' 94' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 7/23g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 4% | — | 🏉 3' 68' 79' |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Murphy | FWD | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 6/6g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/23g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 24.5 | $1.82 | 55% | 28 ✗ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 76% | 25 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 22.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 29 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 19.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 15 ✓ |
| Luke Trainor ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.86 | 70% | 9 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 15.5 | $1.92 | 50% | 23 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 14.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 17 ✗ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 25.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 26 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine | 21.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 20 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 15 ✓ |
| James Peatling | 20.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 20 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 19.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 24 ✗ |
| Sam Berry | 18.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Ben Keays | 17.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)