# Port Adelaide v Carlton — AFL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 110 – 60 Carlton

_Port Adelaide put Carlton to the sword._

Half time: 58 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 66% / Carlton 34% · Adelaide Oval · Thu, 26 June, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Kane Farrell (8' 1st), Mitch Georgiades (17' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Lachie Jones (24'), Darcy Byrne-Jones (35'), Willie Rioli (65' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Miles Bergman (68' ×2), Final quarter (32m 2s)Mitch Georgiades (62'), Dante Visentini (64') · Carlton: Lewis Young (56'), Jesse Motlop (70' Tipped ⚡), Zac Williams (88' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Hollands (92'), Orazio Fantasia (66' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Docherty (76'), Patrick Cripps (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 66% | Won |
| Carlton | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.8 predicted → 50 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 110–60 Carlton in AFL Round 16 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

A hundred and four marks to fifty nine. That's the number that tells you Port Adelaide had the footy in the air and on their terms all day, and it's why they put 110 on Carlton at Adelaide Oval, winning 110-60.

The scoreboard was never really in doubt. Port Adelaide led 34-3 at quarter time, then 58-12 at the half, and had it out to 89-33 by the last change. Carlton spent the whole game chasing a lead that had blown out early, and 60 points of consolation scoring doesn't change how one-sided the afternoon was.

Curious part is Carlton actually won the midfield battle on paper, 35 clearances to 30, and out-tackled Port Adelaide 58 to 42. That's a side that competed hard at the contest. Problem is none of it translated into territory or scoreboard pressure, because Port Adelaide controlled everything around that contest instead.

Start with the ruck: Port Adelaide dominated hit-outs 45 to 24, and from there just took over the footy, 347 disposals to 293, at 74.5% efficiency against Carlton's 67.9%. Going into the game the form line actually had Carlton with better disposal numbers over their last five, 357.99 to Port's 353.97, but none of that showed up here. Port Adelaide used the ball better when it counted.

That efficiency turned into forward pressure. Fifty-five inside 50s to 43, sixteen marks inside 50 to eleven, and 58 intercepts to 50 tells you Port Adelaide were both getting it forward and stopping Carlton doing the same on the rebound. Carlton's forward line carried a strong rating coming in, 1132 to Port's 1058, but a forward group needs supply, and Carlton's midfield edge, 1112 to 1066, never got them the ball inside their own attacking zone often enough to use it.

Port Adelaide's defence, rated the stronger unit pre-game at 1113 to 1098, backed that up by shutting down repeat entries and winning the intercept count.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 34 | 24 | 31 | 21 | 110 |
| Carlton | 3 | 9 | 21 | 27 | 60 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| **347** | Disposals | 293 |
| 106 | Contested poss. | **117** |
| 30 | Clearances | **35** |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| **104** | Marks | 59 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 42 | Tackles | **58** |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 24 |
| **58** | Intercepts | 50 |
| **74.5%** | Disposal eff. | 67.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 50 points. Total score prediction of 166 was close to the actual 170, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.85 (edge +11.7%) — model probability 65.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 8 · Predicted total: 166

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 99 · 118 | 97 · 98 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 87/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.9/g | 16.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.4/g | 7.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 66.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 29 · 41 | 39 · 40 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 145/g | 172/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.7/g | 26/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.3% | 67.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 20 | 25 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 13.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.2% | 75.3% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.44) +1% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.29) -3%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.48/g (lg 1.29) +15% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.44) +1% · Key Forwards 3.48/g (lg 3.56) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 33 in 14g | 24/10g (3·3·2·1·2·1·3·1·7·1) | 14/5g | 83/46g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 19' 44' 54' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 19 in 13g | 15/10g (0·3·3·1·2·0·2·2·1·1) | 4/4g | 57/34g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' 84' 88' |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 16 in 14g | 12/10g (2·2·1·1·2·2·0·0·1·1) | 5/6g | 70/85g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 14 in 13g | 10/10g (0·1·3·0·2·1·0·0·2·1) | 3/10g | 40/115g | 64% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (1·3·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 33/36g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (0·2·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/8g | 53% | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/7g | 76/78g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 8/26g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 12/54g | 20% | — | 🏉 68' 89' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/16g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 23/57g | 14% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 10/17g | 63/131g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 10/68g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Jackson | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 30/71g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/60g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 9% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 2/26g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/39g | 0% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Mani Liddy | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 27 in 13g | 23/10g (2·4·3·2·3·3·3·2·1·0) | 18/8g | 14/9g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 90% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (1·2·0·0·0·4·1·2·2·1) | 5/9g | 4/11g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 10 in 14g | 8/10g (0·3·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 5/2g | 3/4g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.55 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 10 in 14g | 9/10g (3·1·0·2·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 8/9g | 50% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0·3·1) | 4/6g | 2/5g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 9 in 14g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·4) | 12/12g | 43/33g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 4/10g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 16% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Orazio Fantasia | FWD | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (0·0·0·4·1·1·1·1·0·2) | 3/5g | 22/17g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.64 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' 85' |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/4g | 2/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/13g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Alex Cincotta | FWD | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Boyd | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/16g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 26.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 30 ✗ |
| Connor Rozee | 25.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 30 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 21.5 | $1.83 | 59% | 9 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 22 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.94 | 69% | 25 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 18.5 | $2.00 | 47% | 15 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 18.5 | $1.87 | 42% | 21 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | $1.76 | 54% | 15 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | 27.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 21 ✓ |
| Sam Docherty ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 24.5 | $1.92 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 23.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 17 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 85% | 18 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 19.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 11 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 18.5 | $1.99 | 45% | 4 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 18.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 18 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)