AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 50 points. Total score prediction of 166 was close to the actual 170, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
66%
Carlton
34%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 7.8 points with a combined total of 166.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.85
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.7%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.7%
Total Points
Over 158.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W W L L | 75.6 |
Carlton | W L L L L | 78.3 |
Avg Conceded
81.1
Port Adelaide
96.6
Carlton
Avg Margin
29.7
Port Adelaide
8.2
Carlton
Disposals
354.0
Port Adelaide
358.0
Carlton
Inside 50s
45.6
Port Adelaide
56.6
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1581 vs 1570), but the market favours Port Adelaide (@1.85).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 166 · Line: +7.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.54
Team Effectiveness
+0.32
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.