AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 50 points. Total score prediction of 166 was close to the actual 170 — within 4 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
66%
Carlton
34%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO — but Port Adelaide counter with Forward Line ELO and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 7.8 points with a combined total of 166.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.85
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.7%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.7%
Total Points
Over 158.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WWLLL | 60.2 |
Carlton | WWLLL | 76.2 |
Avg Conceded
80.8
Port Adelaide
78.8
Carlton
Avg Margin
-20.6
Port Adelaide
-2.6
Carlton
Disposals
355.6
Port Adelaide
374.2
Carlton
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1427 vs 1408), but the market favours Port Adelaide (@1.85).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 166 · Line: +7.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.54
Team Effectiveness
+0.32
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.