# Hawthorn v North Melbourne — AFL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 150 – 65 North Melbourne

_Hawthorn run riot over North Melbourne._

Half time: 86 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 98% / North Melbourne 2% · University of Tasmania Stadium · Sat, 28 June, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (6' ×7 1st Tipped 🎯), Nick Watson (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mabior Chol (17' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Max Ramsden (46' ×3), Dylan Moore (51'), Connor Macdonald (92' ×2), Jack Ginnivan (74' Tipped ⚡) · North Melbourne: Nick Larkey (10' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Zac Fisher (26'), Paul Curtis (65' Tipped ⚡), Robert Hansen (83'), Jacob Konstanty (85')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 98% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 61.2 predicted → 85 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 150–65 North Melbourne in AFL Round 16 at University of Tasmania Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different games were being played at University of Tasmania Stadium. Hawthorn wanted the ball in hand, patient, working the right option every time. North Melbourne wanted it in the air and in space, backing ambition over control. Only one of those approaches held up, and Hawthorn walked away 150-65 winners.

The head start came from stoppages. North Melbourne arrived rated the stronger ruck division on paper, 1021 to 1009, but lost the hit-out count 45-35 on the day. Clearances went the same way, 44-30 to Hawthorn, and the contested footy followed the same pattern: 135 to 110. Win the source of the ball often enough and the rest of the game gets easier to play.

The scoreboard reflects that control from the opening term. Hawthorn led 35-15 at quarter time, then extended to 86-35 by half time. By three-quarter time it was 113-43, and the last quarter simply continued the trend, Hawthorn running out 150-65 winners in the end.

Efficiency explains why the gap kept growing rather than closing. Hawthorn hit targets at 79.0 per cent for the match, North Melbourne at 72.4. That gap matters more the more often you go forward, and Hawthorn went inside 50 63 times to North Melbourne's 40, converting that territory into 18 marks inside 50 against just 9 for the visitors. More entries, cleaner hands inside the arc, more scoreboard reward.

Hawthorn's disposal count, 360 to 318, backs up the general sense that they simply had the ball more. Marks told a similar story, 84 to 67, and the pressure numbers held up too: 56 tackles to 40. North Melbourne weren't blown off the park for lack of effort, they just spent more of the afternoon chasing.

Positional ratings coming in had Hawthorn ahead in midfield (1031 to 943) and defence (1030 to 994), with North Melbourne rated stronger forward (979 to 960) and in the ruck (1021 to 1009). On the day, none of that forward-line or ruck edge showed up in the actual numbers, Hawthorn won hit-outs, marks inside 50 and every clearance category going.

Recent form suggested a closer contest was plausible. North Melbourne came in with three wins from their last five to Hawthorn's two, and had been conceding fewer points per game across that stretch. None of that carried over. Hawthorn's intercept count, 65 to 60, showed they were just as happy to shut down North Melbourne's own ball use as they were to dominate their own.

Alphr's model had this one right in direction if not in scale. It gave Hawthorn a 98 per cent win probability pre-match, correctly picking the outcome, and tipped a Hawthorn victory by 61.2 points. The final margin blew that out to 85. The model's combined score of 187 points also undersold things, the two sides produced 215 between them. Still, all three of Alphr's model picks for this match landed, a clean sweep on a day where the only real surprise was how comfortably the favourite justified the tip.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 35 | 51 | 27 | 37 | 150 |
| North Melbourne | 15 | 20 | 8 | 22 | 65 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **360** | Disposals | 318 |
| **135** | Contested poss. | 110 |
| **44** | Clearances | 30 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| **84** | Marks | 67 |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **56** | Tackles | 40 |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| **65** | Intercepts | 60 |
| **79.0%** | Disposal eff. | 72.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 61.2 but the actual margin was 85 points. The game's 215 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 187. Hawthorn led 86–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 85. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.14 (edge +10.1%) — model probability 97.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -32.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 157.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 61 · Predicted total: 187

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 114 · 99 | 92 · 134 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 93/g | 87/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.1/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.7% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 40 | 31 · 38 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposals | 140/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 22/g | 19.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.1/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.7% | 72.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 14 | 39 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 14.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 78.9% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.51) +31% · Forwards 5.77/g (lg 4.47) +29% · Defenders 1.63/g (lg 1.29) +26%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.44/g (lg 1.29) +12% · Midfielders 2.44/g (lg 2.36) +3% · Key Forwards 3.44/g (lg 3.56) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at University of Tasmania Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 28 in 11g | 26/10g (2·6·3·4·3·3·0·2·1·2) | 27/15g | 63/36g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 14' 59' 69' 77' 89' 83' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 25 in 14g | 19/10g (1·3·3·2·2·3·0·0·4·1) | 13/7g | 7/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 39' 80' 77' 79' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 18 in 13g | 13/10g (1·0·2·1·3·2·3·0·1·0) | 3/1g | 7/5g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 44' 63' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 15 in 13g | 13/10g (0·0·2·2·1·2·1·3·2·0) | 8/4g | 3/5g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/32g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 11 in 12g | 9/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·3·0·1·2) | 6/6g | 12/12g | 60% | — | 🏉 92' 80' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 11 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 12/8g | 22/19g | 62% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 6/8g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 5/6g | 8/16g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 4/20g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 4/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 2/6g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 3/11g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 4/23g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/8g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Max Ramsden | KF | 0 in 2g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 46' 49' 90' |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Seamus Mitchell | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 28 in 14g | 14/10g (2·1·1·2·1·2·1·0·3·1) | 9/7g | 3/3g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 43' 57' 88' 101' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 27 in 14g | 20/10g (1·1·2·2·2·4·3·2·0·3) | 14/11g | 9/4g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 24 in 11g | 21/10g (3·2·2·2·3·3·1·3·0·2) | 7/5g | 2/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 13 in 14g | 9/10g (2·0·1·0·2·2·0·0·1·1) | 37/18g | 1/1g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.68 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 7/10g | 3/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 10 in 14g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 14/21g | 0/3g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 9 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 58% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Zac Fisher | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 24.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 27 ✗ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 67% | 20 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 21.5 | $2.00 | 52% | 33 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 18.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 15 ✓ |
| Conor Nash ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.85 | 70% | 21 ✗ |
| Harry Morrison | 17.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 12 ✓ |
| Josh Weddle | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 12 ✓ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 93% | 34 ✗ |
| Harry Sheezel | 26.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 28 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 14 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 19.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 29 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 18.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 16 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)