AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 61.2 but the actual margin was 85 points. The game's 215 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 187. Hawthorn led 86–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 85. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
98%
North Melbourne
2%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 56-point ELO rating advantage (1518 vs 1461). Recent form favours North Melbourne with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 61.2 points with a combined total of 187.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.14
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.1%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -32.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.1%
Total Points
Over 157.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 92.6 |
North Melbourne | W W W L L | 94.2 |
Avg Conceded
92.7
Hawthorn
75.5
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
0.6
Hawthorn
17.1
North Melbourne
Disposals
358.7
Hawthorn
379.7
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
47.1
Hawthorn
45.0
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 61 points
Predicted total: 187 · Line: +61.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.15
Team Effectiveness
+0.37
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.