# Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne — AFL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 104 – 85 Melbourne

_Gold Coast SUNS eclipse Melbourne._

Half time: 57 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 57% / Melbourne 43% · People First Stadium · Sat, 28 June, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ben Long (5' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Joel Jeffrey (14'), Jed Walter (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Humphrey (23' ×2), Touk Miller (25'), Ben King (38' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ethan Read (72' Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (78' ×2), Connor Budarick (87') · Melbourne: Harry Petty (33'), Jake Melksham (46' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Max Gawn (53'), Kysaiah Pickett (71' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Bayley Fritsch (82' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 57% | Won |
| Melbourne | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.4 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm · Last updated: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 104–85 Melbourne in AFL Round 16 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast SUNS defeated Melbourne 104-85 at People First Stadium, but the final margin flatters Melbourne. This one was decided in a single quarter, and the SUNS spent the rest of the day defending a lead so big it barely mattered how the last three-quarters played out.

The opening term was brutal. Gold Coast scored 37 points and conceded just 1. That's not a lead, that's a wipeout, and it put Melbourne in a hole they were always going to struggle to climb out of.

Melbourne did respond. The second quarter went their way 32-20, the best passage of footy they played all afternoon, and for a moment it looked like the gap might actually close. It didn't matter much. A 36-point deficit doesn't evaporate off one good quarter, and at half time it was still 57-33 in Gold Coast's favour.

The third quarter killed off any real hope. Gold Coast piled on 38 points to 16, stretching the margin to 46 points at three-quarter time, 95-49. Melbourne's finish, a 36-9 last quarter, was their best pressure of the day but arrived far too late to change anything.

The stat sheet tells a story that cuts against the pre-match numbers. Melbourne went in rated stronger through the midfield, 1074 to 1048, and in the ruck, 1065 to 975. On the day, Gold Coast won clearances 36 to 31 and pushed forward more often, 52 inside 50s to 45. Whatever advantage Melbourne were supposed to hold in and around the contest, it didn't show up where it counted.

Where Gold Coast really made their look count was inside forward 50. They took 19 marks inside 50 to Melbourne's 12, and led the overall marking count comfortably, 108 to 82. Melbourne actually won the disposal count, 351 to 331, and edged Gold Coast on efficiency, 73.5% to 73.2%, but shuffling the ball around the ground counts for little when the other side is taking the grabs that lead to scores. Melbourne's 52 intercepts to Gold Coast's 46 shows they weren't just spectators either, just that repelling the ball wasn't enough to offset how often Gold Coast was finding a target inside 50.

Form lines pointed to a Gold Coast win, if not quite this shape of one. Coming in, the SUNS had won three of their past five, averaging 82.2 points a game and conceding just 67. Melbourne, by contrast, had won barely two of their last five, averaging 71.3 points scored and leaking 88.3 against. That gulf in conceded points explains the first quarter better than anything on the stat sheet.

Alphr's model had Gold Coast as 57% favourites, tipping a 10.4-point win off a combined total of 173. The actual result, a 19-point margin off 189 total points, ran hotter than tipped, but the pick itself landed clean. All three of Alphr's model calls for this match hit, headlined by getting the right side of a result that was, in truth, decided in the opening 25 minutes and never seriously threatened after that.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 37 | 20 | 38 | 9 | 104 |
| Melbourne | 1 | 32 | 16 | 36 | 85 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 331 | Disposals | **351** |
| **131** | Contested poss. | 129 |
| **36** | Clearances | 31 |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **108** | Marks | 82 |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **65** | Tackles | 62 |
| **40** | Hit-outs | 37 |
| 46 | Intercepts | **52** |
| 73.2% | Disposal eff. | **73.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 10.4 was reasonable against the actual 19-point result. The game's 189 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 173. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.27 (edge -21.8%) — model probability 57.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -22.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 10 · Predicted total: 173

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 136 · 97 | 81 · 123 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 20.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.8/g | 5.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.8% | 68.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 27 · 37 | 57 · 38 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.5/g | 21.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 68.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 14 | 14 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.2/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.4% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.51) +35% · Defenders 1.44/g (lg 1.29) +12% · Midfielders 2.26/g (lg 2.39) -5%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.54/g (lg 1.29) +19% · Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.39) +1% · Forwards 4.44/g (lg 4.43) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 35 in 13g | 23/10g (5·1·5·1·3·2·2·1·1·2) | 9/5g | 91/42g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 59' 90' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 25 in 12g | 20/10g (2·3·3·1·1·4·3·1·1·1) | 6/9g | 13/19g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 51' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 14 in 12g | 10/10g (1·1·3·1·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 1/2g | 12/8g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 99' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 14 in 13g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·2) | 4/12g | 26/85g | 46% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 10 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·4·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 13/19g | 40% | — | 🏉 23' 76' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 10 in 12g | 9/10g (2·1·0·0·2·1·0·3·0·0) | 4/5g | 14/33g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·2·0·0·2) | 3/5g | 64/58g | 64% | — | 🏉 78' 85' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 11/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 16/36g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 4/6g | 24/46g | 34% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 14/42g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/9g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 11/67g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/11g | 32% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 16/42g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Alex Sexton | FWD | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/11g | 74/74g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/21g | 0% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/50g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/48g | 4% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 24 in 11g | 24/10g (2·5·1·1·2·2·5·0·3·3) | 6/5g | 4/6g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' 76' 85' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 16 in 13g | 15/10g (0·2·2·2·0·1·2·1·3·2) | 6/9g | 8/7g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' 84' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 13 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 12/11g | 5/7g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 11 in 13g | 11/10g (0·1·4·2·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 3/4g | 3/2g | 48% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·0·0·0·1·4·3·1·1·0) | 6/9g | 7/7g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 55' 63' 79' 93' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 11 in 14g | 7/10g (0·2·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 4/3g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/2g | 4/2g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 3/8g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 2/7g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 6/14g | 6/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Jefferson | KF | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.54 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 5/7g | 30% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/56g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 29.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 27 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 25.5 | $1.95 | 55% | 24 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell | 24.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 24 ✓ |
| John Noble | 24.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 29 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli | 19.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 17 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 19.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 17 ✓ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 17.5 | $1.85 | 59% | 13 ✓ |
| Lachie Weller | 16.5 | $1.84 | 61% | 12 ✓ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca | 26.5 | $1.86 | 63% | 32 ✗ |
| Clayton Oliver | 24.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 24 ✓ |
| Jake Bowey | 22.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 25 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers | 21.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Jack Viney | 20.5 | $1.95 | 46% | 24 ✗ |
| Christian Salem | 19.5 | $1.96 | 43% | 22 ✗ |
| Ed Langdon | 18.5 | $1.90 | 44% | 11 ✓ |
| Max Gawn | 18.5 | $1.87 | 29% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)