Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
57%
Melbourne
43%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 43%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Melbourne carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1532 vs 1504). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 10.4 points with a combined total of 173.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.8%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -22.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.8%
Total Points
Over 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W W L | 82.2 |
Melbourne | W W L L L | 71.3 |
Avg Conceded
67.0
Gold Coast SUNS
88.3
Melbourne
Avg Margin
14.4
Gold Coast SUNS
3.4
Melbourne
Disposals
375.1
Gold Coast SUNS
371.3
Melbourne
Inside 50s
42.9
Gold Coast SUNS
57.2
Melbourne
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1532 vs 1504), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.27).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: +10.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
+0.27
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.