AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 77% probability. The predicted margin of 16.5 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Fremantle led 35–32 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 12. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
77%
St Kilda
23%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Fremantle carry a 48-point ELO rating advantage (1525 vs 1476). Recent form favours St Kilda with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 16.5 points with a combined total of 163.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.28
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -22.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Total Points
Under 165.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W L L L L | 87.6 |
St Kilda | W W W W L | 87.6 |
Avg Conceded
74.4
Fremantle
68.0
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-9.4
Fremantle
24.6
St Kilda
Disposals
350.8
Fremantle
363.2
St Kilda
Inside 50s
53.8
Fremantle
55.6
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
77%
Fremantle predicted to win by 17 points
Predicted total: 163 · Line: +16.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.07
Team Effectiveness
+0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.