# Fremantle v St Kilda — AFL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 81 – 69 St Kilda

_Fremantle survive a scare against St Kilda._

Half time: 35 – 32 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 77% / St Kilda 23% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 29 June, 05:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Josh Treacy (2' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Jordan Clark (36'), Murphy Reid (45' Tipped ⚡), Nathan ODriscoll (59'), Shai Bolton (69' Tipped ⚡), Sean Darcy (65'), Luke Jackson (67' ×2), Isaiah Dudley (74') · St Kilda: Isaac Keeler (11' ×2), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (38'), Liam Henry (43'), Rowan Marshall (49'), Dan Butler (79'), Max Hall (86'), Jack Higgins (62' Tipped ⚡), Mitch Owens (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 77% | Won |
| St Kilda | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.5 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 16 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 81–69 St Kilda in AFL Round 16 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two very different games were being played out on the same ground at Optus Stadium. St Kilda wanted the ball in their hands as often as possible, happy to grind through the middle and rack up the count. Fremantle were more interested in what happened once it got forward, trading a bit of volume for position inside their own attacking 50. By the final siren it was Fremantle's method that paid off, 81 to 69.

The ladder of the game tells a different story to how it finished. Fremantle actually led at the first two changes, 14 to 11 at quarter time and 35 to 32 at half time. It was the third term where St Kilda took over, outscoring Fremantle 22 to 11 to snatch a 54-46 lead at three-quarter time. That surge was built on the sort of contested footy that usually closes out games: St Kilda finished with 46 clearances to Fremantle's 31 and 125 contested possessions to 117.

Then came the reversal. Fremantle scored 35 points in the final quarter to St Kilda's 15, turning an eight-point deficit into a 12-point win. Whatever St Kilda were doing through the middle of the ground in the third term, Fremantle found an answer for in the fourth.

Look at the disposal count and St Kilda were clearly the busier side, 350 to 312, and their 70.0 per cent efficiency to Fremantle's 67.4 per cent says they used the ball a touch more cleanly as well. Marks went their way too, 91 to 86. On raw ball movement, this was St Kilda's game to lose.

Fremantle didn't need to win that battle to win the war.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 14 | 21 | 11 | 35 | 81 |
| St Kilda | 11 | 21 | 22 | 15 | 69 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 312 | Disposals | **350** |
| 117 | Contested poss. | **125** |
| 31 | Clearances | **46** |
| **49** | Inside 50s | 41 |
| 86 | Marks | **91** |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| 57 | Tackles | **59** |
| **57** | Hit-outs | 26 |
| **63** | Intercepts | 48 |
| 67.4% | Disposal eff. | **70.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 77% probability. The predicted margin of 16.5 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Fremantle led 35–32 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 12. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.28 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 76.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -22.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 17 · Predicted total: 163

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 110 · 105 | 103 · 124 |
| Goal Assists | 4.1/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 79/g | 70/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.9/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.3/g | 7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 50 · 40 | 37 · 55 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 156/g | 165/g |
| Inside 50s | 29.2/g | 23.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.8% | 69.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 13 | 25 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.5/g | 12.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.8% | 76.5% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.38) +3% · Key Forwards 3.39/g (lg 3.57) -5% · Forwards 4.08/g (lg 4.44) -8%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.47/g (lg 2.38) +4% · Key Forwards 3.53/g (lg 3.57) -1% · Forwards 4.02/g (lg 4.44) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 26 in 14g | 15/10g (6·1·2·0·2·1·0·0·0·3) | 3/4g | 54/37g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 24' 70' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 19 in 14g | 13/10g (3·0·2·0·1·3·1·1·0·2) | 4/5g | 59/51g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 19 in 13g | 17/10g (2·3·1·0·1·3·1·3·1·2) | 20/11g | 29/17g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 17 in 14g | 11/10g (0·3·2·2·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 4/2g | 49/33g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 16 in 14g | 11/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·4·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 9/8g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·1·0·1·2·1·1·3·3·1) | 1/1g | 12/11g | 85% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·3) | 0/5g | 31/36g | 56% | — | 🏉 67' 94' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 8 in 9g | 8/9g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·2) | 1/1g | 6/5g | 67% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/10g | 31/83g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 28/56g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/7g | 23/61g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/7g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/19g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/28g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 9/16g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 21/59g | 24% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 21/62g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 7/47g | 8% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/32g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/84g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nat Fyfe | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/10g | 26/51g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/19g | 5% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 30 in 14g | 18/10g (2·3·3·1·2·5·0·1·1·0) | 11/8g | 13/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 19 in 12g | 16/10g (3·0·1·4·2·1·3·0·1·1) | 8/4g | 1/5g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 18 in 13g | 10/10g (0·3·0·3·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 8/3g | 4/3g | 58% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 16 in 12g | 12/10g (3·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·3) | 7/10g | 12/8g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 12 in 14g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 63% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·2) | 1/2g | 2/2g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 24% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 7 in 8g | 7/8g (1·1·0·1·0·3·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 63% | — | 🏉 11' 89' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 3/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 6 in 3g | 12/10g (0·2·1·0·2·1·0·4·0·2) | 9/8g | 10/6g | 62% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 1/8g | 36% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 3/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/9g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/21g | 26% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 29.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 25 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong | 28.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.92 | 65% | 31 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 23.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 18 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.99 | 76% | 17 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson | 18.5 | $1.91 | 50% | 18 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 18.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 15 ✓ |
| Corey Wagner | 15.5 | $1.85 | 62% | 9 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.94 | 62% | 28 ✓ |
| Jack Macrae | 26.5 | $1.83 | 54% | 26 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair | 26.5 | $1.77 | 66% | 22 ✓ |
| Jack Steele | 21.5 | $1.94 | 49% | 22 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 20.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 16 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 18.5 | $1.89 | 50% | 21 ✗ |
| Hunter Clark | 17.5 | $1.82 | 58% | 16 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall | 16.5 | $1.78 | 43% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r16-fremantle-v-st-kilda
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)