AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 76.7 but the actual margin was 29 points. The game's 147 points came in 55 points lower than the predicted 202. Collingwood trailed 35–43 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 88–59. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
98%
West Coast Eagles
2%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 76.7 points with a combined total of 202.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.02
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.4%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -60.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.4%
Total Points
Over 174.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | W W L L L | 83.8 |
West Coast Eagles | W W L L L | 71.8 |
Avg Conceded
97.2
Collingwood
67.0
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
21.2
Collingwood
23.7
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
352.8
Collingwood
352.9
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
42.5
Collingwood
56.4
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Collingwood predicted to win by 77 points
Predicted total: 202 · Line: +76.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.11
Team Effectiveness
+0.16
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.