# Collingwood v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 16 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 88 – 59 West Coast Eagles

_Collingwood hit back to topple West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 35 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 98% / West Coast Eagles 2% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 28 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Brody Mihocek (14' Tipped ⚡), Charlie West (32' Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (35' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Lipinski (39' ×2), Nick Daicos (70'), Tim Membrey (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Will Hoskin-Elliott (79'), Dan Houston (92'), Lachlan Sullivan (65'), Scott Pendlebury (89') · West Coast Eagles: Jack Williams (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Tyler Brockman (29' ×2), Liam Ryan (45'), Jobe Shanahan (50' Tipped ⚡), Tim Kelly (51'), Matt Flynn (87'), Brady Hough (89')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 98% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 76.7 predicted → 29 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood vs West Coast Eagles Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 16, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 88–59 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 16 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Marvel Stadium had West Coast Eagles up 43-35, and for a team carrying a stingy season record on defence, it looked like business as usual. It wasn't. Collingwood finished the job 88-59, and the story of how they got there is really the story of one enormous third quarter.

At the first break West Coast led 18-9. By half-time that lead had stretched only slightly to 43-35, Collingwood still hanging within touch. Then the third quarter happened: Collingwood outscored the Eagles 31 points to 13 to go from four points down to ten points up, 66-56 at the last change. From there they simply kept the foot down, adding 22 more in the final term while West Coast managed just three. A 43-point turnaround from the half-time deficit to the final margin is not a slow correction. It's a collapse.

The clearance count tells you where the momentum came from. Collingwood won clearances 44-32 and contested possession 136-119, numbers that line up with a midfield rated 1002 to West Coast's 982 pre-match. Once Collingwood started winning first use of the ball at stoppages, everything downstream got easier: 55 inside 50s to 50, 13 marks inside 50 to West Coast's 7, and a disposal efficiency gap of 77.3% to 71.2% that meant Collingwood wasted far less of what they won.

West Coast actually finished with more total disposals, 368 to 353, and more intercepts, 69 to 61, which says their ball-use volume and defensive reads were fine in patches. It just didn't matter when Collingwood's forward line was taking more marks inside 50 and converting the territory Collingwood's midfield kept feeding them. Tackles went Collingwood's way too, 74 to 63, adding pressure on top of the territory edge.

The form lines going in make this result a little stranger than the scoreboard suggests. West Coast came in conceding just 66.9 points a game on average, with a defence rated 1028 to Collingwood's 985. Instead they shipped 88. Collingwood, by contrast, arrived with a leaky average of 97.2 points conceded and duly leaked 59, so on paper both sides did roughly what their profile suggested defensively. It was the attacking numbers that flipped: Collingwood's 83.8-point scoring average blew out well past its usual mark, while West Coast's 71.8 average held up close to form.

Alphr's model backed Collingwood at 98% and got the winner right, but the margin read was well off, tipping Collingwood by 76.7 in a game that finished 29. The total was overcooked too, projected at 202 against an actual 147. Two out of three isn't a disaster of a read, and the model did have

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 9 | 26 | 31 | 22 | 88 |
| West Coast Eagles | 18 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 59 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 353 | Disposals | **368** |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 119 |
| **44** | Clearances | 32 |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| **97** | Marks | 86 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **74** | Tackles | 63 |
| 43 | Hit-outs | 43 |
| 61 | Intercepts | **69** |
| **77.3%** | Disposal eff. | 71.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 76.7 but the actual margin was 29 points. The game's 147 points came in 55 points lower than the predicted 202. Collingwood trailed 35–43 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 88–59. The model went 2/3 on this match. Collingwood covered the 60.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.02 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 97.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -60.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 77 · Predicted total: 202

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 146 · 86 | 103 · 145 |
| Goal Assists | 5.9/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.9/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11/g | 8.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 66.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 43 | 25 · 51 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.1/g | 13.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.9% | 71.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 10 | 5 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.1/g | 12/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81% | 73.6% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.83/g (lg 0.51) +63% · Midfielders 3.38/g (lg 2.35) +44% · Key Forwards 4.62/g (lg 3.57) +29%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Forwards 4.06/g (lg 4.47) -9% · Defenders 1.17/g (lg 1.29) -9% · Midfielders 2.13/g (lg 2.35) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 36 in 14g | 31/10g (3·2·5·1·6·1·5·5·1·2) | 11/11g | 36/22g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 24 in 12g | 19/10g (0·3·2·1·4·1·2·4·1·1) | 22/11g | 32/16g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 18 in 13g | 13/10g (1·1·2·1·0·1·3·1·1·2) | 23/12g | 172/100g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' 72' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 12 in 9g | 14/10g (2·0·3·1·0·1·3·0·2·2) | 5/8g | 27/22g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 4/3g | 9/10g | 62% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 7 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 8/19g | 19/36g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 9/13g | 24/27g | 52% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/17g | 12/33g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 5/7g | 9/13g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 1/4g | 20/37g | 38% | — | 🏉 39' 67' |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 6/14g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 6/19g | 24% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/18g | 16/34g | 30% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 15/17g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Oleg Markov | DEF | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 2/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Dean | DEF | no games | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Charlie West | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 11/22g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 10/33g | 14% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 15 in 12g | 14/10g (2·2·1·1·1·2·3·1·0·1) | 23/17g | 49/37g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 13 in 9g | 13/10g (0·1·2·0·3·1·1·2·2·1) | 1/1g | 7/8g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 13 in 12g | 9/10g (2·0·3·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 9/8g | 20/12g | 56% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (0·2·0·3·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 9 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 5/8g | 48% | — | 🏉 29' 48' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·3) | 0/2g | 2/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 6/24g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 8% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 6/15g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 5/13g | 16% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.67 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 11/16g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 31.5 | $1.83 | 57% | 34 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos | 27.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 30 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 24.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 20 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 23.5 | $1.88 | 37% | 28 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 21 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 18.5 | $1.76 | 62% | 19 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 18.5 | $1.90 | 38% | 27 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 18.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 19 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.89 | 90% | 29 ✗ |
| Liam Baker | 21.5 | $1.83 | 60% | 35 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan | 19.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 18.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 18.5 | $1.97 | 60% | 19 ✗ |
| Ryan Maric | 17.5 | $1.93 | 45% | 21 ✗ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.94 | 64% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)