# Western Bulldogs v Richmond — AFL Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 135 – 56 Richmond

_Western Bulldogs put Richmond to the sword._

Half time: 66 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 95% / Richmond 5% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 22 June, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Sam Darcy (5' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Lachlan McNeil (18' ×2), Ed Richards (36'), Marcus Bontempelli (39' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Rhylee West (41' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Davidson (48'), Cooper Hynes (55' ×2), Tim English (78' ×2), Lachlan Bramble (87'), Final quarter (34m 21s)Sam Darcy (61'), Aaron Naughton (81' Tipped ⚡) · Richmond: Steely Green (20'), Tom Lynch (67' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Seth Campbell (64' Tipped ⚡), Kamdyn McIntosh (68'), Jack Ross (76'), Jacob Hopper (86')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 95% | Won |
| Richmond | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 79.5 predicted → 79 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 135–56 Richmond in AFL Round 15 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond's one genuine positive from this game is the tackle count. They laid 56 to the Western Bulldogs' 40, so the pressure was there in patches. Problem is, pressure without the ball doesn't do much when the other side has it 416 times to your 309.

That disposal gap tells most of the story. Richmond simply didn't get their hands on it often enough, and when they did, they weren't as clean with it, hitting targets at 70.3% against the Western Bulldogs' 76.5%. Contested ball was close enough, 117 to 125, and hit-outs were dead level at 32 apiece. But clearances went 38 to 28 the Western Bulldogs' way, and that's the stat that turns first use of the footy into scoreboard pressure. Add in marks, 128 to 74, and it's clear who was controlling territory for long stretches.

The scoreline ended up an absolute rout: Western Bulldogs 135, Richmond 56. A 79-point margin at Marvel Stadium, built early and never really threatened. Quarter time had the Western Bulldogs up 21-9, manageable enough for Richmond at that point. By half time it was 66-10, the sort of scoreboard that ends a contest as a contest well before the main break. Three-quarter time read 97-26. The last quarter was mopping up, Richmond adding 30 more but the game long gone by then.

Inside 50 numbers explain why Richmond never got a foothold: 59 entries to 38 for the Western Bulldogs, and once there, the home side made more of them count too, 17 marks inside 50 to Richmond's 14. Richmond's forward line simply wasn't seeing the footy enough to matter. Intercepts were closer, 67 to 64, which suggests Richmond's defenders were doing some honest work even as the scoreboard ran away from them.

Go back to the pre-match numbers and none of this should surprise anyone. The Western Bulldogs held the edge everywhere it counts: midfield 1144 to 991, forwards 1103 to 980, defence 1083 to 948, ruck 1045 to 899. That's a sweep across every position group, and it played out almost exactly like that on the day.

Form lines add a wrinkle. Richmond had actually been winning more across their last five, 3.96 wins to the Western Bulldogs' 2.36, with a healthier average margin too. None of that travelled to Marvel Stadium. Whatever had been working for Richmond recently ran into a Western Bulldogs side clicking on both sides of the ball, and their usual scoring output, 92 points a game coming in, was nowhere near enough cover against a score of 135.

Alphr's

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 21 | 45 | 31 | 38 | 135 |
| Richmond | 9 | 1 | 16 | 30 | 56 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **416** | Disposals | 309 |
| **125** | Contested poss. | 117 |
| **38** | Clearances | 28 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 38 |
| **128** | Marks | 74 |
| **17** | Marks inside 50 | 14 |
| 40 | Tackles | **56** |
| 32 | Hit-outs | 32 |
| **67** | Intercepts | 64 |
| **76.5%** | Disposal eff. | 70.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 95% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Western Bulldogs by 79.5 vs the actual margin of 79 points. Western Bulldogs led 66–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 79. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.04 (edge -1.2%) — model probability 95.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -53.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 80 · Predicted total: 205

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 94 · 110 | 82 · 113 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 93/g | 78/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 15.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.8/g | 6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 64.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 77 · 31 | 27 · 46 |
| Goal Assists | 5.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 180/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 30.8/g | 18.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.2% | 69.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 12 | 11 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.1/g | 11.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.5% | 79.1% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.53/g (lg 3.56) +27% · Rucks 0.59/g (lg 0.51) +16% · Midfielders 2.66/g (lg 2.35) +13%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.4/g (lg 2.35) +2% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.56) -5% · Forwards 4/g (lg 4.47) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 22 in 13g | 18/10g (1·3·3·1·3·0·1·3·0·3) | 20/7g | 111/71g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 81' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 20 in 13g | 18/10g (1·1·3·3·2·2·4·1·0·1) | 3/3g | 35/35g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' 82' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 17 in 13g | 15/10g (0·1·2·2·0·3·1·3·1·2) | 3/7g | 30/41g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 17 in 7g | 27/10g (7·2·1·1·4·2·5·2·0·3) | 4/1g | 24/17g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.75 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 53' 83' |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 12 in 12g | 12/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·3·2·1·2) | 0/0g | 10/20g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 12 in 13g | 11/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·2·2·1·1) | 2/7g | 23/63g | 50% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 12 in 11g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·1·2·2·0) | 3/4g | 21/35g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 11 in 12g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 15/34g | 48% | — | 🏉 18' 80' |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·4·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/9g | 12/23g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/13g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 8 in 8g | 10/10g (1·1·2·0·3·1·2·0·0·0) | 12/11g | 139/127g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' 72' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 56% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·3·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 40/66g | 44% | — | 🏉 78' 87' |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 21/76g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 42/116g | 24% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/21g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/10g | 35/39g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Adam Treloar | FWD | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (3·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 10/17g | 45/63g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 48/83g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | 🏉 55' 90' |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/24g | 8% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Nick Coffield | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/22g | 2% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 19 in 13g | 12/10g (2·0·2·0·1·2·3·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 6/4g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 15 in 11g | 14/10g (1·1·1·2·3·0·2·2·2·0) | 24/12g | 59/26g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' 89' 71' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 10 in 13g | 10/10g (1·0·1·2·0·1·0·2·2·1) | 2/7g | 10/16g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 7 in 13g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 45% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/8g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/27g | 26% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 4/22g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 4/12g | 22% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/10g | 10/25g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/10g | 8/20g | 22% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.55 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jasper Alger | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Smith | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 5/32g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 7/14g | 20% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 23 ✓ |
| Adam Treloar | 26.5 | $2.00 | 41% | 10 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 26.5 | $1.83 | 57% | 25 ✓ |
| Tom Liberatore | 26.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 27 ✗ |
| Ed Richards | 26.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 27 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 24.5 | $1.96 | 51% | 36 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.79 | 67% | 18 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams | 20.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 25 ✗ |
| Tim English | 18.5 | $1.83 | 47% | 24 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.83 | 48% | 28 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 24.5 | $1.88 | 44% | 19 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 23.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 19 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 72% | 18 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 19.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Nathan Broad | 16.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 13 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 16.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 19 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 15.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 9 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)