AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 95% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Western Bulldogs by 79.5 vs the actual margin of 79 points. Western Bulldogs led 66–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 79. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
95%
Richmond
5%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1599 vs 1451). Recent form favours Richmond with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 79.5 points with a combined total of 205.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.04
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.2%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -53.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.2%
Total Points
Over 178.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W L L L | 97.9 |
Richmond | W W W W L | 92.0 |
Avg Conceded
79.6
Western Bulldogs
70.5
Richmond
Avg Margin
4.3
Western Bulldogs
26.0
Richmond
Disposals
368.7
Western Bulldogs
361.5
Richmond
Inside 50s
52.9
Western Bulldogs
53.0
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 80 points
Predicted total: 205 · Line: +79.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.54
Team Effectiveness
+0.32
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.