AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 95% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Western Bulldogs by 79.5 vs the actual margin of 79 points. Western Bulldogs led 66–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 79. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
95%
Richmond
5%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1599 vs 1451). Recent form favours Richmond with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 79.5 points with a combined total of 205.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.04
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.2%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -53.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.2%
Total Points
Over 178.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W L L L | 97.9 |
Richmond | W W W W L | 92.0 |
Avg Conceded
79.6
Western Bulldogs
70.5
Richmond
Avg Margin
4.3
Western Bulldogs
26.0
Richmond
Disposals
368.7
Western Bulldogs
361.5
Richmond
Inside 50s
52.9
Western Bulldogs
53.0
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 80 points
Predicted total: 205 · Line: +79.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.54
Team Effectiveness
+0.32
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.