AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.6 but the actual margin was 19 points. The game's 123 points came in 35 points lower than the predicted 158. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
45%
Sydney Swans
55%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Port Adelaide are far from out of this at 45%. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 73-point ELO rating advantage (1579 vs 1506). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 5.6 points with a combined total of 158.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.97
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.7%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans -3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.7%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W L L L | 92.8 |
Sydney Swans | W W W L L | 92.3 |
Avg Conceded
65.7
Port Adelaide
78.9
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
26.1
Port Adelaide
7.9
Sydney Swans
Disposals
348.9
Port Adelaide
373.9
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
49.3
Port Adelaide
43.7
Sydney Swans
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1579 vs 1506), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.97).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 158 · Line: -5.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.46
Team Effectiveness
-0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.