# GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 106 – 99 Gold Coast SUNS

_GWS GIANTS roar back to stand tall over Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 43 – 56 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 65% / Gold Coast SUNS 35% · ENGIE Stadium · Sun, 22 June, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Jake Riccardi (16' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jesse Hogan (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Callum Brown (32' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (60' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Toby Greene (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harvey Thomas (85'), Final quarter (37m 9s)Aaron Cadman (69'), Toby Bedford (73'), Tom Green (75'), Jake Stringer (85' ×2) · Gold Coast SUNS: Noah Anderson (3' ×2 1st), Touk Miller (4' ×2), Ben Ainsworth (7' ×2), Ben King (24' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Daniel Rioli (29'), Bailey Humphrey (48' ×2), Jarrod Witts (76'), Brayden Fiorini (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 65% | Won |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.1 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 106–99 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 15 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS Giants beat Gold Coast Suns 106-99 at ENGIE Stadium. Take that scoreline at face value and you'd guess a tight arm-wrestle decided by a kick here or there. You'd be wrong. With a quarter to go, the Giants were down 79-57, a 22-point deficit that had Gold Coast's fingerprints all over every part of the ground. What actually happened is the Giants scored 49 points to the Suns' 20 in the final term and turned a hiding into a win.

The three-quarter time numbers tell you why Gold Coast should have been out of sight. They had 68 inside 50s to 44, won clearances 42-37, and piled up 398 disposals to 342. Contested footy went their way too, 155 to 134. By any conventional read of a stat sheet, that's a team in control of the contest from go to whoa.

Where it flipped is efficiency, not volume. GWS made their entries count, hitting targets at 73.1% to the Suns' 68.6%, and turned fewer looks inside 50 into more points on the board.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 25 | 18 | 14 | 49 | 106 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 48 | 8 | 23 | 20 | 99 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 342 | Disposals | **398** |
| 134 | Contested poss. | **155** |
| 37 | Clearances | **42** |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **68** |
| **75** | Marks | 54 |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **11** |
| **89** | Tackles | 64 |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **56** |
| 60 | Intercepts | **64** |
| **73.1%** | Disposal eff. | 68.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 65% probability. The predicted margin of 0.1 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The game's 205 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 178. GWS GIANTS trailed 43–56 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 106–99. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.91 (edge +13.0%) — model probability 65.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 0 · Predicted total: 178

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | GWS GIANTS | 77 – 79 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2026 | R8 | Gold Coast SUNS | 83 – 63 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R23 | Gold Coast SUNS | 76 – 111 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R19 | GWS GIANTS | 89 – 50 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R4 | Gold Coast SUNS | 89 – 117 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 138 · 90 | 127 · 83 |
| Goal Assists | 4.1/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 19/g | 22.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 9.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.5% | 67.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 46 | 23 · 35 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.2/g | 20.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.2% | 70.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 17 | 12 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.6/g | 15.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 80% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.57/g (lg 1.29) +22% · Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.38) +1% · Forwards 4.43/g (lg 4.43) +0%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.29) -2% · Midfielders 2.25/g (lg 2.38) -5% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.51) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 38 in 11g | 34/10g (9·2·2·1·7·1·4·0·2·6) | 20/11g | 81/24g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 55' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 22 in 13g | 16/10g (3·5·0·2·0·1·1·3·1·0) | 22/13g | 138/82g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 93' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 21 in 14g | 17/10g (2·0·1·2·1·1·2·2·1·5) | 2/3g | 14/15g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' 76' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 13 in 12g | 11/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·3·3·0·3) | 5/2g | 26/14g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' 91' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (1·1·0·3·1·0·3·2·2·0) | 5/3g | 28/23g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 17' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 11 in 13g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 9/9g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 8 in 7g | 12/10g (1·1·2·0·0·2·1·0·3·2) | 22/10g | 5/8g | 78% | — | 🏉 85' 97' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 8 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 19/33g | 44% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 4/9g | 43% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 9/19g | 28% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 6/21g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/18g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 12/10g | 58/58g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 12/13g | 51/73g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/31g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/25g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/31g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 30/86g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nicholas Madden | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/7g | 13% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 33 in 12g | 23/10g (2·5·1·5·1·3·2·2·1·1) | 8/7g | 2/3g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 81' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 24 in 11g | 20/10g (1·2·3·3·1·1·4·3·1·1) | 2/7g | 1/2g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (3·1·1·3·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 12 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 0/5g | 44% | — | 🏉 4' 95' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 10 in 11g | 9/10g (0·2·1·0·0·2·1·0·3·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·0·4·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 40% | — | 🏉 48' 94' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·2·2·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/4g | 60% | — | 🏉 7' 33' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 55% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 14/14g | 6/6g | 22% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/5g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 32% | — | 🏉 3' 103' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/6g | 18% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 30.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 31 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash | 28.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 33 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 28.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 4 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan | 26.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Kelly | 21.5 | $1.91 | 34% | 18 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 18.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 15 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 17.5 | $1.78 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 17 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 28.5 | $1.82 | 63% | 42 ✗ |
| Touk Miller | 24.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 37 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $2.00 | 67% | 34 ✗ |
| John Noble | 22.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 21 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 17.5 | $1.79 | 37% | 22 ✗ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.94 | 72% | 23 ✗ |
| Sam Clohesy | 15.5 | $1.98 | 45% | 16 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)