AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 65% probability. The predicted margin of 0.1 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The game's 205 points came in 27 points higher than the predicted 178. GWS GIANTS trailed 43–56 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 106–99. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
65%
Gold Coast SUNS
35%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Gold Coast SUNS. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for GWS GIANTS.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.0%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.0%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W L L L L | 91.3 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W L L | 78.6 |
Avg Conceded
94.0
GWS GIANTS
89.2
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-6.3
GWS GIANTS
4.3
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
331.4
GWS GIANTS
336.7
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
54.2
GWS GIANTS
57.5
Gold Coast SUNS
ELO–Market Disagreement
Gold Coast SUNS hold the ELO advantage (1506 vs 1498), but the market favours GWS GIANTS (@1.91).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 178 · Line: +0.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.33
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.