# Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 51 – 92 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions roar past Geelong Cats._

Half time: 23 – 46 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 45% / Brisbane Lions 55% · GMHBA Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Shannon Neale (26' Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Cameron (41' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Gryan Miers (85') · Brisbane Lions: Levi Ashcroft (12' 1st), Kai Lohmann (14' ×2), Darcy Wilmot (16'), Cam Rayner (18' ×2), Will Ashcroft (36'), Logan Morris (50' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Hugh McCluggage (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 55% | Won |
| Geelong Cats | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.5 predicted → 41 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 51–92 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 15 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane led 46-23 at half time, and if anyone at GMHBA Stadium was hoping for a fightback, the third and fourth quarters put that notion to bed for good. The Lions pushed it out to 72-40 by three-quarter time, then closed it out 92-51. The margin never once shrank. It grew from 23 at the main break to 32 at the last change to 41 at the final siren.

That steady widening tells its own story. This wasn't a hot start that Geelong clawed back into. It was Brisbane doing the same things quarter after quarter, and Geelong never finding an answer.

The disposal count sums it up: 378 to 314 in Brisbane's favour. Brisbane also used it better, hitting targets at 75.4% efficiency to Geelong's 67.5%. That's the gap that mattered most. Both sides won a similar number of clearances, 37 to 36, and contested possessions were close too, 133 to 129. So the ball was won at roughly even rates. What Brisbane did after winning it is where the game was actually decided.

The marks column tells the same story a different way. Brisbane finished with 110 to Geelong's 81, and inside forward 50 it was 16 to 13. More entries too: 58 inside 50s to 51. Brisbane got it forward more often and made better use of it once it got there, while Geelong's forward thrusts kept breaking down before they counted for anything.

None of it should surprise anyone who checked the positional numbers beforehand. Brisbane rated ahead in midfield, 1014 to 961, in defence, 1031 to 1006, and in the ruck, 1059 to 1037. Geelong's one edge was forward, 1052 to 1024, and on the night it barely showed.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 9 | 14 | 17 | 11 | 51 |
| Brisbane Lions | 26 | 20 | 26 | 20 | 92 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 314 | Disposals | **378** |
| 129 | Contested poss. | **133** |
| 36 | Clearances | **37** |
| 51 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 81 | Marks | **110** |
| 13 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 50 | Tackles | **61** |
| 36 | Hit-outs | **39** |
| 74 | Intercepts | 74 |
| 67.5% | Disposal eff. | **75.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 41 points. The game's 143 points came in 21 points lower than the predicted 164. Brisbane Lions led 23–46 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 41. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $3.30 (edge +24.4%) — model probability 54.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +24.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 11 · Predicted total: 164

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Geelong Cats | 101 – 123 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2026 | R10 | Brisbane Lions | 76 – 117 | Geelong Cats |
| 2025 | PF | Geelong Cats | 75 – 122 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | WF | Geelong Cats | 112 – 74 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R3 | Brisbane Lions | 70 – 61 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 149 · 100 | 124 · 110 |
| Goal Assists | 6.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 84/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 18.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.9/g | 9.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 66.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 54 · 38 | 34 · 33 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 160/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.7/g | 25.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 68.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 16 | 18 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.4/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.5% | 80% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.44) -1% · Key Forwards 3.36/g (lg 3.56) -6% · Midfielders 2.1/g (lg 2.38) -12%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.74/g (lg 3.56) +5% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.51) +2% · Forwards 4.32/g (lg 4.44) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 44 in 14g | 37/10g (4·2·4·1·2·7·6·5·0·6) | 35/18g | 99/39g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' 61' 92' 70' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 22 in 14g | 17/10g (2·2·2·2·2·2·1·1·1·2) | 2/3g | 17/18g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 20 in 14g | 13/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·2·2·4·1) | 7/6g | 62/30g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 19 in 12g | 17/10g (2·3·4·3·1·1·1·0·0·2) | 21/19g | 69/66g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 18 in 14g | 14/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·5·1·0·4) | 0/2g | 20/13g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 15 in 11g | 14/10g (0·3·0·2·2·1·2·1·0·3) | 1/1g | 8/9g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 12 in 12g | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·2) | 9/5g | 34/22g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 11 in 14g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/7g | 41/39g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 7 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 12/33g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 9/10g | 39/49g | 48% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/20g | 20/91g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 1/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/12g | 25/52g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 10/47g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 2/8g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/46g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Duncan | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/18g | 57/93g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/40g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 13/55g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 0 in 2g | 11/10g (1·2·1·2·2·1·2·0·0·0) | 12/12g | 3/4g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/62g | 2% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 25 in 13g | 20/10g (2·4·0·2·0·3·2·2·0·5) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' 72' 76' 82' 68' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 21 in 14g | 16/10g (5·2·4·0·3·1·0·1·0·0) | 17/13g | 5/2g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 20 in 14g | 11/10g (3·0·3·0·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 4/9g | 0/2g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 14 in 14g | 13/10g (2·2·0·0·3·0·2·1·2·1) | 8/10g | 2/2g | 60% | — | 🏉 18' 66' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 14 in 12g | 10/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·3·1·2·0) | 28/17g | 5/5g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 5/13g | 1/3g | 42% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/19g | 1/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 4 in 9g | 8/10g (4·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 52% | — | 🏉 14' 89' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 4 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/19g | 3/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/12g | 3/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 3 in 8g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 9/10g | 3/4g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Will McLachlan | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 3/5g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 31.5 | $1.78 | 60% | 28 ✓ |
| Max Holmes | 26.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 23 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.73 | 72% | 22 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers | 21.5 | $1.93 | 60% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 18.5 | $1.77 | 54% | 21 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries | 18.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 15 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 10 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 15.5 | $1.87 | 39% | 10 ✓ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh McCluggage | 26.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 22 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 28 ✗ |
| Lachie Neale | 25.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 17 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 24.5 | $1.88 | 48% | 33 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 23.5 | $1.77 | 58% | 30 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 26 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 19.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 23 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 17.5 | $1.80 | 34% | 23 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)