AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 53.2 but the actual margin was 41 points. The game's 167 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 187. Fremantle led 57–41 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 41. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
94%
Essendon
6%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Essendon carry a 20-point ELO rating advantage (1535 vs 1515). Recent form favours Fremantle with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 53.2 points with a combined total of 187.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.2%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -33.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.2%
Total Points
Over 155.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W W W L L | 81.1 |
Essendon | W L L L L | 77.4 |
Avg Conceded
76.9
Fremantle
67.2
Essendon
Avg Margin
26.5
Fremantle
-7.3
Essendon
Disposals
364.9
Fremantle
335.7
Essendon
Inside 50s
55.4
Fremantle
53.5
Essendon
ELO–Market Disagreement
Essendon hold the ELO advantage (1535 vs 1515), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.13).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Fremantle predicted to win by 53 points
Predicted total: 187 · Line: +53.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.02
Team Effectiveness
+0.27
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.