# Collingwood v St Kilda — AFL Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 108 – 74 St Kilda

_Collingwood see off St Kilda._

Half time: 53 – 41 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 91% / St Kilda 9% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 21 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Darcy Cameron (8' ×2 1st), Tim Membrey (11' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Daniel McStay (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Crisp (26'), Patrick Lipinski (41' ×2), Harry Perryman (48'), Scott Pendlebury (50'), Jamie Elliott (90' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Daicos (78'), Brody Mihocek (82' Tipped ⚡), Bobby Hill (89' Tipped ⚡) · St Kilda: Cooper Sharman (16' Tipped ⚡), Dan Butler (25' ×2), Mason Wood (39' ×3), Max Hall (67'), Darcy Wilson (83'), Rowan Marshall (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 91% | Won |
| St Kilda | 9% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 39.5 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood vs St Kilda Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 15, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 108–74 St Kilda in AFL Round 15 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood put 108 on St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, winning by 34. Have a look at the clearance count though: St Kilda won that battle 40 to 33. They also had more of the ball, 332 disposals to 319, and more contested possession, 128 to 107. By the numbers that actually measure who fought harder for the footy, this was St Kilda's game. It just didn't turn into their scoreboard.

What did turn into the scoreboard was what happened with the ball once each side had it. Collingwood hit targets at 72.8% efficiency, St Kilda managed 65.9%. That gap is the whole story. St Kilda could win the ball back all day, but too much of it went to ground or to the wrong bloke once they had it.

The forward half told the same tale. Collingwood took 18 marks inside 50 to St Kilda's 10, which is the difference between clean entries and scrambled ones. Collingwood also camped down back with 108 marks overall to St Kilda's 80, controlling territory even when they weren't dominating the clearance count. Add 65 tackles to 46 and you've got a side that pressured the ball out of St Kilda's hands every time it looked dangerous.

The scoreline built steadily rather than arriving in one burst. Collingwood led 31 to 19 at quarter time, 53 to 41 at the main break, then 81 to 60 at the last change before closing it out 108 to 74. St Kilda never really threatened to close it, they just kept adding their own scoring at a pace that made the margin look tighter on paper than it played out on the ground.

Pre-match, the model had Collingwood at 91% to win with a margin of 39.5 points. The actual result of 34 was close enough to call that one right, and Collingwood covered the 29.5-point line comfortably. The total was the miss: 182 points scored against a predicted 164, 18 points over. Both sides found more scoring than expected, St Kilda especially, given their underlying ratings.

That total blowout makes sense once you look at the positional numbers coming in. Collingwood's forward line was rated 1098 against St Kilda's 973, the biggest gap of any position group, and it showed in the 18 marks inside 50. St Kilda's recent form had them averaging 86.2 points a game and conceding 97.7, but they put up 74 here in a losing effort, well above their recent scoring average against a Collingwood defence rated at 1047.

St Kilda's problem wasn't work rate. They out-hustled Collingwood at the coalface all day and still lost by five goals. What they couldn't do was convert that clearance advantage into usable ball inside 50, and Collingwood's defensive edge, mark-heavy and efficient, made sure every entry St Kilda did generate was contested rather than clean.

Collingwood's last five form had them at 99.9 points a game with an average winning margin of nearly 14. They beat both figures here, scoring 108 and winning by 34, which tells you this wasn't just a side doing what it usually does. It was a side doing it better than usual, against an opponent that had the harder edge in the midfield and still walked away with nothing to show for it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 31 | 22 | 28 | 27 | 108 |
| St Kilda | 19 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 74 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Disposals | **332** |
| 107 | Contested poss. | **128** |
| 33 | Clearances | **40** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| **108** | Marks | 80 |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **65** | Tackles | 46 |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **36** |
| **63** | Intercepts | 56 |
| **72.8%** | Disposal eff. | 65.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 91% probability. The predicted margin of 39.5 was reasonable against the actual 34-point result. The game's 182 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 164. Collingwood led 53–41 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 2/3 on this match. Collingwood covered the 29.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.16 (edge +4.6%) — model probability 90.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -29.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 40 · Predicted total: 164

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 136 · 79 | 96 · 114 |
| Goal Assists | 5.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 69/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.8/g | 12.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.1/g | 7.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 39 | 33 · 50 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 167/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.8/g | 23.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.8% | 69.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 10 | 25 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 130/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.1/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 76.5% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.43/g (lg 2.35) +3% · Key Forwards 3.37/g (lg 3.56) -5% · Forwards 4.08/g (lg 4.47) -9%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.29) -8% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.47) -9% · Midfielders 2.11/g (lg 2.35) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 34 in 13g | 29/10g (0·3·2·5·1·6·1·5·5·1) | 16/10g | 34/21g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 90' 92' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 23 in 11g | 21/10g (3·0·3·2·1·4·1·2·4·1) | 13/6g | 31/15g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 82' |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 18 in 12g | 15/10g (2·0·3·2·1·1·3·1·1·1) | 7/4g | 9/6g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 89' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 16 in 12g | 11/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·1·3·1·1) | 0/0g | 170/99g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 93' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 10 in 8g | 13/10g (1·2·0·3·1·0·1·3·0·2) | 3/8g | 25/21g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 76' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 8/9g | 58% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 5/11g | 19/35g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 24/26g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 2/11g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 11/32g | 46% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 6/18g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/12g | 34% | — | 🏉 8' 14' |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/13g | 16% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/6g | 18/36g | 34% | — | 🏉 41' 85' |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 15/16g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 15/33g | 26% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 11/21g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/14g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 10/32g | 14% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 30 in 13g | 21/10g (3·2·3·3·1·2·5·0·1·1) | 16/9g | 86/59g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 79% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 18 in 11g | 16/10g (1·3·0·1·4·2·1·3·0·1) | 1/1g | 39/33g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 17 in 12g | 11/10g (2·0·3·0·3·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/3g | 45/38g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 13 in 11g | 11/10g (2·3·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 78/75g | 58% | — | 🏉 39' 53' 66' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 11 in 13g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 61% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 7/44g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 13/19g | 52% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 7 in 7g | 7/7g (1·1·0·1·0·3·1) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.68 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 39/103g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 8/13g | 20/77g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 4 in 2g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·0·2·1·0·4·0) | 7/7g | 66/58g | 62% | — | 🏉 25' 45' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 21/25g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/34g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 42/73g | 34% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 38/93g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 13/22g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 5/40g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 10/55g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/72g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 27/129g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/103g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/38g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 30 ✗ |
| Nick Daicos | 26.5 | $1.95 | 39% | 30 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 23.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 18 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 23.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 22 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.93 | 77% | 14 ✓ |
| Bobby Hill ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 99% | 6 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 19.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 9 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 18.5 | $1.98 | 44% | 16 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 15.5 | $1.84 | 44% | 19 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 35 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.81 | 70% | 19 ✓ |
| Jack Macrae | 26.5 | $1.93 | 55% | 29 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 21.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 19 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 19.5 | $1.83 | 43% | 21 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 18.5 | $1.93 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Hunter Clark ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.85 | 65% | 17 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)