AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 91% probability. The predicted margin of 39.5 was reasonable against the actual 34-point result. The game's 182 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 164. Collingwood led 53–41 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
91%
St Kilda
9%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 91%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Collingwood carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1544 vs 1469). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 39.5 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.16
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.6%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -29.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.6%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | W W W W L | 99.9 |
St Kilda | W L L L L | 86.2 |
Avg Conceded
98.3
Collingwood
97.7
St Kilda
Avg Margin
14.0
Collingwood
23.4
St Kilda
Disposals
380.0
Collingwood
373.1
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.9
Collingwood
44.6
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
91%
Collingwood predicted to win by 40 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: +39.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
+0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.