# Carlton v North Melbourne — AFL Round 15 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 73 – 84 North Melbourne

_North Melbourne hold off a gallant Carlton._

Half time: 19 – 47 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 47% / North Melbourne 53% · MCG · Sat, 21 June, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Mitch McGovern (8' ×4 1st), Orazio Fantasia (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zac Williams (87' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (30m 43s)Blake Acres (63'), Lachie Fogarty (72'), Jesse Motlop (90') · North Melbourne: Cameron Zurhaar (11' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (43' Tipped ⚡), Paul Curtis (47' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Colby McKercher (51' ×2), Tristan Xerri (67'), Robert Hansen (76'), Dylan Stephens (79'), Harry Sheezel (93')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 53% | Won |
| Carlton | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.7 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 15 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 73–84 North Melbourne in AFL Round 15 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne 84, Carlton 73 at the MCG, but the scoreboard pressure built early and never really let up once North Melbourne found their groove.

Carlton actually led at quarter time, 18-9, and looked like the side that turned up to play. Whatever happened after that flipped the game on its head. By half time it was North Melbourne 47, Carlton 19, a swing that took the margin from a nine-point Carlton lead to a 28-point deficit in one term. Three-quarter time made it worse: North Melbourne 84, Carlton 38. A 46-point buffer with a quarter to play is about as safe as it gets, and from there it was about managing the clock rather than chasing the result.

Carlton did find something in the final term, cutting into the margin to bring the final score to 84-73, an 11-point loss instead of the 46-point hiding that three-quarter time suggested was coming. It's a respectable scoreline given how the middle two quarters went, but nobody at the ground would've thought this was a tight contest while it was actually happening.

What makes this one worth a second look is the stat sheet, because Carlton won plenty of it. More contested possessions, 136 to 127. More hit-outs, 41 to 31, which lines up with Carlton going into the match rated stronger in the ruck, 1072 to 922. More inside 50s too, 56 to 42, and more marks overall, 113 to 87, including marks inside 50, 12 to 10. Even the raw disposal count favoured Carlton, 383 to 377. By most of the categories that get printed on a stat sheet, Carlton had the better night.

North Melbourne won where it counted: making the ball count. Their disposal efficiency was 79.0% against Carlton's 74.8%, and that gap explains a lot about how a side can lose the volume battle and still win by 11. North Melbourne also edged the clearance count, 38 to 36, and picked off more intercepts, 69 to 63. Carlton had more of the ball and more looks inside 50, but North Melbourne did more with less, and that's the difference between a team that dominates the stat sheet and a team that wins the game.

Alphr's model had North Melbourne as 53% favourites going in, backed by form that showed North Melbourne winning close to four of their last five and Carlton just over one. The model also gave Carlton the stronger underlying ratings across the park, in the midfield, forward line, defence and ruck, which squares with how the possession count actually played out. The margin was tipped at 13.7 points in Carlton's favour, the total at 174. Neither landed. The actual margin was 11 points the other way, and the 157 points scored came in 17 below the predicted total, a low-scoring affair by the model's own measure. On the head-to-head result the model got it right. On margin and total, it was well off, going 1 from 3 for the day.

In the end this was a game decided by a shocking third quarter, not by which team had the ball more. Carlton will look at the stat sheet and wonder how they lost. North Melbourne will look at the scoreboard and not care.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 18 | 1 | 19 | 35 | 73 |
| North Melbourne | 9 | 38 | 37 | 0 | 84 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **383** | Disposals | 377 |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 127 |
| 36 | Clearances | **38** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| **113** | Marks | 87 |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **73** | Tackles | 65 |
| **41** | Hit-outs | 31 |
| **69** | Intercepts | 63 |
| 74.8% | Disposal eff. | **79.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.7 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 157 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 174. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $4.15 (edge +29.4%) — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +29.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 14 · Predicted total: 174

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 89 · 92 | 86 · 126 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 87/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.4/g | 12.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.9% | 68.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 38 · 37 | 28 · 37 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 170/g | 140/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.2/g | 19.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 16 | 35 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.5/g | 14.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.9% | 78.5% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.5) +36% · Forwards 5.78/g (lg 4.44) +30% · Defenders 1.64/g (lg 1.29) +27%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.5) +20% · Forwards 4.49/g (lg 4.44) +1% · Defenders 1.21/g (lg 1.29) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 27 in 12g | 24/10g (1·2·4·3·2·3·3·3·2·1) | 23/8g | 110/53g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 93% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 12 in 9g | 12/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·4·1·2·2) | 5/10g | 12/32g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 11 in 8g | 11/10g (0·0·4·2·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 5/4g | 10/19g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 10 in 13g | 10/10g (1·3·1·0·2·0·2·1·0·0) | 9/12g | 39/84g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 8/3g | 12/21g | 52% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0·3) | 2/5g | 16/32g | 34% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 1/6g | 33% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 14/44g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 3/8g | 28/41g | 22% | — | 🏉 8' 73' 86' 88' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 16/31g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 11/33g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 15/38g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/20g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 34/52g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 9/64g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/14g | 3/61g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Alex Cincotta | FWD | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 8/16g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Binns | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/7g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Orazio Fantasia | FWD | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·4·1·1·1·1·0) | 19/9g | 45/33g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.64 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 71' |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 7/71g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/2g | 5/28g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/28g | 2% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 27 in 13g | 15/10g (2·2·1·1·2·1·2·1·0·3) | 18/8g | 18/7g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 24 in 13g | 18/10g (1·1·1·2·2·2·4·3·2·0) | 13/8g | 16/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 45' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 22 in 10g | 22/10g (3·3·2·2·2·3·3·1·3·0) | 11/5g | 2/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' 52' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 12 in 13g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·0·2·2·0·0·1) | 14/14g | 57/28g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 63% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 10 in 13g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/9g | 4/10g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 10 in 13g | 9/10g (2·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 20/18g | 24/38g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 61% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 51' 90' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 2/8g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/2g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 24% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 10% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 2/4g | 28% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Zac Fisher | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 16/36g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 3/21g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/17g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 31 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 25 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 71% | 24 ✓ |
| Sam Docherty | 21.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 29 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands | 18.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 20 ✗ |
| Adam Saad | 18.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 18 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 18.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 21 ✗ |
| Tom De Koning | 16.5 | $1.78 | 50% | 14 ✓ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 27.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 30 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 90% | 29 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 30 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.78 | 59% | 24 ✓ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 70% | 34 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 20.5 | $1.78 | 48% | 28 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens | 19.5 | $1.97 | 56% | 13 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.84 | 69% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)