AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.7 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 157 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 174. The model went 1/3 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
47%
North Melbourne
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives North Melbourne a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Carlton are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but North Melbourne counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 97-point ELO rating advantage (1564 vs 1467). Recent form favours North Melbourne with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Carlton by 13.7 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
North Melbourne to Win @4.15
Winner ✓
Edge
+29.4%
Line / Spread
Carlton -24.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+29.4%
Total Points
Over 166.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W L L L L | 81.1 |
North Melbourne | W W W W L | 94.3 |
Avg Conceded
85.2
Carlton
70.9
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
24.5
Carlton
-6.7
North Melbourne
Disposals
373.9
Carlton
360.0
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
45.3
Carlton
53.1
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
North Melbourne predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: +13.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.11
Team Effectiveness
+0.28
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.