# West Coast Eagles v Carlton — AFL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 52 – 86 Carlton

_Carlton see off West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 22 – 68 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 21% / Carlton 79% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 15 June, 06:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Bailey Williams (17' ×3), Jamie Cripps (57' Tipped ⚡), Elijah Hewett (58'), Tyler Brockman (78'), Jack Williams (94' Tipped ⚡) · Carlton: Lachie Fogarty (11' ×3 1st), Mitch McGovern (13' ×3), Zac Williams (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Charlie Curnow (27' Tipped ⚡), Alex Cincotta (45'), Corey Durdin (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 79% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 19.2 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 52–86 Carlton in AFL Round 14 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Carlton favourites by 19.2 points on a combined total of 148. Final numbers: Carlton 86, West Coast Eagles 52, a 34-point margin on a total of 138. The win probability call, 79% for Carlton, landed exactly as expected. The margin didn't, missing by almost 15 points. Worth working out where that gap actually came from.

Short answer: it came from the first quarter. Carlton led 46-7 at the first change, a 39-point term that did most of the damage before the model's projected margin had any real chance of holding up. From there the game more or less levelled out. Carlton's second-quarter addition was 22 to West Coast's 15, stretching it to 46. But across the third and fourth terms West Coast actually won each quarter by 6 points, adding 15 to Carlton's 9 in both. The final margin ended up bigger than the model's number purely because of how lopsided that opening quarter was, not because Carlton kept piling it on.

The underlying numbers back up why Carlton could open like that and then coast. Ruck was the biggest mismatch on the sheet pre-match, 1093 to 967, and it showed up literally: 36 hit-outs to 20. First use of the footy went Carlton's way all day. Forward line and defence were rated similarly favourable for Carlton, 1077 to 969 and 1056 to 996, and that translated into 15 marks inside 50 against 10, and 60 inside 50 entries to 46.

Midfield was rated almost dead level, 1013 to 1011, arguably a shade in West Coast's favour, and that's the one area where the Eagles actually held their own: 35 clearances to Carlton's 33. But Carlton still won the contested ball 139 to 127 and out-tackled them 58 to 41, so whatever they lost at the coalface they made up in general pressure and repeat effort. Disposal count reflects the same gap, 401 to 323, even though West Coast were the more efficient side with the ball in hand, 69.6% to 66.8%.

Form lines going

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 52 |
| Carlton | 46 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 86 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 323 | Disposals | **401** |
| 127 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| **35** | Clearances | 33 |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| 77 | Marks | **106** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| 41 | Tackles | **58** |
| 20 | Hit-outs | **36** |
| 65 | Intercepts | **70** |
| **69.6%** | Disposal eff. | 66.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 19.2 but the actual margin was 34 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.27 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 79.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 19 · Predicted total: 148

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 99 · 136 | 80 · 88 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 88/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.2/g | 16.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 7.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.1% | 65.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 22 · 50 | 37 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 88/g | 168/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.4/g | 25.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.1% | 67.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 13 | 22 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 100/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 12/g | 13.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.2% | 75.7% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.5) +12% · Forwards 4.56/g (lg 4.48) +2% · Defenders 1.23/g (lg 1.29) -5%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.83/g (lg 0.5) +66% · Midfielders 3.44/g (lg 2.35) +46% · Key Forwards 4.63/g (lg 3.56) +30%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 14 in 11g | 14/10g (1·2·2·1·1·1·2·3·1·0) | 15/12g | 94/78g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $17.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 13 in 11g | 10/10g (1·2·0·3·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 10/6g | 70/61g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 12 in 8g | 12/10g (0·0·1·2·0·3·1·1·2·2) | 0/3g | 18/18g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 94' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 12 in 12g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·2·4·0) | 4/6g | 80/54g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 11/17g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·3·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 10/15g | 37% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/12g | 46% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 13/31g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 2/6g | 12/37g | 22% | — | 🏉 17' 86' 72' |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/10g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 4/15g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 20/56g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/27g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/15g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/76g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/20g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 26 in 11g | 26/10g (3·1·2·4·3·2·3·3·3·2) | 28/7g | 21/6g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 10 in 7g | 11/10g (1·0·0·4·2·1·2·0·1·0) | 8/4g | 4/4g | 58% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 10 in 12g | 10/10g (0·1·3·1·0·2·0·2·1·0) | 6/9g | 6/9g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.52 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 10 in 8g | 11/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·4·1·2) | 4/9g | 2/6g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 38' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·0·3·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 35% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 1/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 2/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 11' 15' 25' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 13/44g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/12g | 8/26g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 4/5g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 2/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 13' 41' 66' |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 1/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 2/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Binns | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/6g (0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Orazio Fantasia | FWD | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·0·4·1·1·1·1) | 7/7g | 4/5g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 68% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $17.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Alex Cincotta | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Hudson O'Keeffe | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/8g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Baker | 21.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric | 18.5 | $1.85 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.78 | 78% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 18.5 | $1.85 | 60% | 24 ✗ |
| Tyrell Dewar ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.95 | 84% | 27 ✗ |
| Tim Kelly | 17.5 | $1.80 | 46% | 10 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 17.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 28 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | 28.5 | $2.00 | 57% | 35 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.95 | 67% | 21 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 26.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 30 ✗ |
| Sam Docherty | 23.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.79 | 75% | 21 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 20.5 | $1.83 | 59% | 19 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 18.5 | $1.93 | 37% | 25 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)