# St Kilda v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 60 – 132 Western Bulldogs

_Western Bulldogs muzzle St Kilda._

Half time: 36 – 64 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 16% / Western Bulldogs 84% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 12 June, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Jack Higgins (27' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Keeler (40' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Sharman (50' Tipped ⚡), Marcus Windhager (55'), Mason Wood (62'), Ryan Byrnes (89'), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (94'), Bradley Hill (67') · Western Bulldogs: Buku Khamis (11' ×2 1st), Ryley Sanders (16' ×2), Joel Freijah (23'), Sam Darcy (29' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Naughton (35' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ed Richards (37'), Sam Davidson (61'), Tim English (69'), Lachlan McNeil (91'), Rhylee West (92' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Hynes (70'), Matthew Kennedy (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Adam Treloar (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 84% | Won |
| St Kilda | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 26.7 predicted → 72 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 60–132 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 14 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen points down at quarter time, St Kilda were already chasing. By half time the margin had blown out to 28, 36 to 64, and by three-quarter time it was 54, with the Bulldogs sitting on 105 to St Kilda's 51. The last quarter was just formality, the margin stretching to 72 as Western Bulldogs closed it out 132 to 60 at Marvel Stadium. There was no point in the match where St Kilda were within reach.

That kind of scoreboard pressure builds from somewhere, and the disposal count tells the story plainly. Western Bulldogs finished with 408 disposals to St Kilda's 341, and used it far more efficiently, 76.7% to 72.1%. Every extra possession compounds when you're also going inside 50 more often, and the Bulldogs did that 68 times to St Kilda's 41. Cleaner ball, more entries. It adds up fast.

Where St Kilda might have hoped to compete was around the ball, and they were competitive there. Contested possessions read 129 to 110 in the Bulldogs' favour, and clearances were close too, 40 to 39, again the Bulldogs' way but only just. That contest didn't translate to scoreboard impact, because the Bulldogs were far more precise once the ball got forward. Nineteen marks inside 50 to St Kilda's 10 is the number that actually decides games like this. Being competitive at the clearance is one thing, but it counts for little if the other side marks it cleanly every time it goes forward.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as a Bulldogs win, and by a wide margin at that. Western Bulldogs went in rated 1603 to St Kilda's 1490, with an 84% win probability attached, and every positional line backed that up: forwards 1123 to 984, midfield 1110 to 1035, defence 1070 to 965, ruck 1070 to 996.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 10 | 26 | 15 | 9 | 60 |
| Western Bulldogs | 26 | 38 | 41 | 27 | 132 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Disposals | **408** |
| 110 | Contested poss. | **129** |
| 39 | Clearances | **40** |
| 41 | Inside 50s | **68** |
| 94 | Marks | **121** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **19** |
| **61** | Tackles | 58 |
| 37 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| **59** | Intercepts | 58 |
| 72.1% | Disposal eff. | **76.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 26.7 but the actual margin was 72 points. The game's 192 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 159. Western Bulldogs led 36–64 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 72. The model went 2/3 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 24.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.25 (edge +3.7%) — model probability 83.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 27 · Predicted total: 159

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 93 · 103 | 83 · 107 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 71/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 15.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 6.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.2% | 68.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 29 · 43 | 70 · 27 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposals | 168/g | 181/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.2/g | 30.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.1/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 7 | 23 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 130/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.6/g | 10.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.3% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.38) +1% · Key Forwards 3.41/g (lg 3.55) -4% · Forwards 4.02/g (lg 4.46) -10%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.39/g (lg 2.38) +0% · Key Forwards 3.32/g (lg 3.55) -6% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.46) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 29 in 12g | 23/10g (3·3·2·3·3·1·2·5·0·1) | 3/8g | 85/58g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 17 in 10g | 17/10g (2·1·3·0·1·4·2·1·3·0) | 1/3g | 38/32g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 17 in 11g | 15/10g (4·2·0·3·0·3·0·0·2·1) | 7/3g | 45/37g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (2·2·3·1·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 9/7g | 77/74g | 56% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 11 in 12g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 39/102g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 6/43g | 24% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 6 in 6g | 6/6g (1·1·0·1·0·3) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/13g | 19/76g | 28% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Dan Butler | FWD | 4 in 1g | 11/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·2·1·0·4) | 5/7g | 66/57g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 21/24g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 42/72g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/10g | 38/92g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/33g | 2% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 10/54g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/39g | 14% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/71g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Carroll | DEF | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 27/128g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/102g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 10/48g | 10% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 19 in 12g | 16/10g (1·1·3·3·1·3·0·1·3·0) | 18/8g | 108/70g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 39' 79' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 19 in 12g | 18/10g (1·1·1·3·3·2·2·4·1·0) | 5/4g | 34/34g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 92' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 15 in 12g | 15/10g (2·0·1·2·2·0·3·1·3·1) | 7/9g | 28/40g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 92' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 14 in 6g | 25/10g (1·7·2·1·1·4·2·5·2·0) | 1/3g | 21/16g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 47' 74' |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (3·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·2·2) | 1/2g | 21/34g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 11 in 12g | 10/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·1·2·2·1) | 2/7g | 22/62g | 46% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 10 in 11g | 10/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·3·2·1) | 0/3g | 8/19g | 35% | — | 🏉 11' 43' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 10 in 11g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 14/33g | 46% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (1·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/14g | 36% | — | 🏉 16' 77' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·0·3·1·2·0·0) | 21/15g | 139/126g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 3/12g | 31% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 50% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 39/65g | 42% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/8g | 21/75g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 42/115g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/20g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/10g | 35/38g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/9g | 48/82g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Adam Treloar | FWD | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (0·3·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 7/12g | 44/62g | 52% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/23g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 70' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 27.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 31 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair | 27.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 30 ✗ |
| Jack Macrae | 26.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 22 ✓ |
| Jack Steele | 21.5 | $1.96 | 55% | 22 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 20.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 16 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 19.5 | $1.94 | 51% | 16 ✓ |
| Hunter Clark | 19.5 | $1.83 | 64% | 14 ✓ |
| Zak Jones | 18.5 | $1.83 | 53% | 7 ✓ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 21 ✗ |
| Ryan Byrnes | 17.5 | $1.93 | 48% | 18 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 16.5 | $1.80 | 44% | 23 ✗ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.93 | 71% | 36 ✗ |
| Adam Treloar | 25.5 | $1.65 | 55% | 28 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 24.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 29 ✗ |
| Ed Richards | 24.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 24.5 | $1.69 | 55% | 14 ✓ |
| Tom Liberatore | 23.5 | $1.95 | 42% | 29 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 21 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 18.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 27 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders | 18.5 | $1.83 | 43% | 21 ✗ |
| Tim English | 17.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r14-st-kilda-v-western-bulldogs
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)