AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 26.7 but the actual margin was 72 points. The game's 192 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 159. Western Bulldogs led 36–64 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 72. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
16%
Western Bulldogs
84%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Scoring Form. Western Bulldogs carry a 206-point ELO rating advantage (1640 vs 1434). The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 26.7 points with a combined total of 159.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.7%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +24.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.7%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WWLLL | 77.6 |
Western Bulldogs | WWLLL | 105.2 |
Avg Conceded
72.2
St Kilda
78.2
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
5.4
St Kilda
27.0
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
375.2
St Kilda
395.0
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 27 points
Predicted total: 159 · Line: -26.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
-0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.