Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
70%
Melbourne
30%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but Port Adelaide counter with ELO Difference and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Recent form favours Melbourne with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.85
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.0%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.0%
Total Points
Over 160.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WLLLL | 56.2 |
Melbourne | WWLLL | 84.0 |
Avg Conceded
97.0
Port Adelaide
84.0
Melbourne
Avg Margin
-40.8
Port Adelaide
0.0
Melbourne
Disposals
344.6
Port Adelaide
352.4
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: +0.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.21
Team Effectiveness
+0.39
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.