AFL | Round 14

Port Adelaide are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Port Adelaide counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Melbourne carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1550 vs 1525).

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Port Adelaide to Win @1.85

Winner ✓

Edge

+16.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Port Adelaide -1.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+16.0%

✓

Total Points

Over 160.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Port Adelaide	W W W L L	107.0
Melbourne	W W W L L	79.6

Avg Conceded

66.6

Port Adelaide

82.3

Melbourne

Avg Margin

14.7

Port Adelaide

10.5

Melbourne

Disposals

337.0

Port Adelaide

361.9

Melbourne

Inside 50s

52.7

Port Adelaide

47.0

Melbourne

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1550 vs 1525), but the market favours Port Adelaide (@1.85).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

POR

1525Overall1550

MEL

ELO difference: -25 in favour of Melbourne

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

974Midfield1018

MEL +43

992Forwards1043

MEL +51

1020Defence1053

MEL +32

1004Ruck1000

Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

POR

Stat

MEL

3.2

Wins (Last 5)

2.9

107.0pts

Avg Score

79.6pts

66.6pts

Avg Conceded

82.3pts

14.7pts

Avg Margin

10.5pts

337.0

Disposals

361.9

52.7

Inside 50s

47.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Melbourne

Midfield ELO11.0%

Melbourne

Recent Win Rate10.0%

Adelaide

Forward Line ELO9.0%

Melbourne

Defensive ELO8.0%

Melbourne

Venue Advantage7.0%

Adelaide

H2H History6.0%

—

Model Confidence

70%

Port Adelaide predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 171 · Line: +0.4

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.21

Team Effectiveness

+0.39

Elite

Hard Worker

Efficient

Poor Game

Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

3/3 predictions correct

Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props