# Port Adelaide v Melbourne — AFL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 93 – 68 Melbourne

_Port Adelaide see off Melbourne._

Half time: 60 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 70% / Melbourne 30% · Adelaide Oval · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (8' ×6 1st Tipped 🎯), Darcy Byrne-Jones (21' ×2), Miles Bergman (24'), Jase Burgoyne (32'), Willie Rioli (46' Tipped ⚡), Jason Horne-Francis (61'), Sam Powell-Pepper (95' Tipped ⚡) · Melbourne: Jacob van Rooyen (10' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kysaiah Pickett (13' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Daniel Turner (71'), Bayley Fritsch (84' Tipped ⚡), Harry Petty (92')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 70% | Won |
| Melbourne | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.4 predicted → 25 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 93–68 Melbourne in AFL Round 14 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide put 93 points on Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, winning by 25. Have a look at the clearance count first, though, because it tells a different story to the final siren. Melbourne won clearances 37 to 32 and contested possession 139 to 112. By the numbers that actually start each phase of play, Melbourne were the better side. They just couldn't turn any of it into scoreboard pressure.

That gap is the whole game in miniature. Melbourne also won the inside 50 count, 54 to 48, so they had more looks at goal than Port Adelaide did. What they didn't have was efficiency once they got there. Port Adelaide finished with 16 marks inside 50 to Melbourne's 10, and that's where a contest gets settled, not at the coalface in the middle of the ground.

Port Adelaide's disposal efficiency, 77.7% to 74.5%, backs that up. They had fewer disposals overall (374 to 346 is actually a bit more, so scratch that, Port Adelaide had more) but the cleaner hands mattered more than raw volume. Marks, 123 to 89, is the number that really stands out. Melbourne were scrapping for the footy all day and winning plenty of those scraps. Port Adelaide were the ones taking the mark, resetting, and going again.

The scoreboard did move in one direction throughout. Port Adelaide led 28-22 at quarter time, pushed that out to 60-36 by half time, and were 74-59 up at the last change before closing it out 93-68. No period of the match saw Melbourne closing the margin. The lead only grew.

Pre-match, the sides looked far closer than that scoreline suggests. Melbourne actually rated ahead across the park, forwards 1043 to 992, defence 1053 to 1020, midfield 1018 to 974. On raw talent metrics this was meant to be tight. Port Adelaide's form heading in explains why it wasn't: an average score of 107 a game against Melbourne's 79.6, and a scoring average conceded of just 66.6 against Melbourne's 82.3. Port Adelaide were the form side even if they weren't rated the stronger one on paper.

Melbourne's underlying trend, more disposals per game across their last five (361.9 to Port Adelaide's 337.0), showed up again here in the raw clearance and contested numbers. But volume without efficiency is just running around. Port Adelaide's superior inside-50 average across their last five, 52.7 to 47.0, didn't even hold up on the day, they were actually out-marked at the source. What held up was what they did once the ball arrived.

Alphr's model had Port Adelaide as 70% favourites and got the winner right. The margin picked was close to a coin flip, 0.4 points, and reality delivered 25. That's a miss worth owning. All three picks landed for the match overall, but the margin number is the one to sit with: on paper this was a contest between evenly rated sides, and it turned into anything but.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 28 | 32 | 14 | 19 | 93 |
| Melbourne | 22 | 14 | 23 | 9 | 68 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **374** | Disposals | 346 |
| 112 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| 32 | Clearances | **37** |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **54** |
| **123** | Marks | 89 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| 61 | Tackles | 61 |
| 35 | Hit-outs | **38** |
| **63** | Intercepts | 61 |
| **77.7%** | Disposal eff. | 74.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 70% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.4 but the actual margin was 25 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.85 (edge +16.0%) — model probability 70.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 0 · Predicted total: 171

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 86 · 108 | 76 · 114 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 98/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.4/g | 20.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8/g | 5.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 68.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 35 | 54 · 36 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.3/g | 21.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 68% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 18 | 13 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.7/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76% | 80.9% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.7/g (lg 0.5) +40% · Defenders 1.41/g (lg 1.29) +9% · Midfielders 2.26/g (lg 2.38) -5%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.49/g (lg 1.29) +16% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.5) +2% · Forwards 4.52/g (lg 4.45) +2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 25 in 12g | 21/10g (2·3·3·3·2·1·2·1·3·1) | 6/4g | 75/44g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 47' 64' 86' 81' 83' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 17 in 11g | 16/10g (3·0·0·3·3·1·2·0·2·2) | 9/6g | 55/32g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 14 in 12g | 11/10g (0·1·2·2·1·1·2·2·0·0) | 1/8g | 68/83g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 95' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 11 in 11g | 10/10g (1·2·0·1·3·0·2·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 37/113g | 64% | — | 🏉 21' 74' |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/8g | 76/76g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·1·1·3·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/3g | 31/34g | 68% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (1·1·0·2·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 6/6g | 57% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/15g | 54/132g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/29g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/24g | 12% | — | 🏉 32' |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 23/55g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 11/52g | 16% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 10/66g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Jackson | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Burton | DEF | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 13/65g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/59g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/24g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Mani Liddy | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 29/69g | 26% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 21 in 10g | 21/10g (0·2·5·1·1·2·2·5·0·3) | 15/7g | 16/11g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' 39' 40' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 14 in 12g | 13/10g (0·0·2·2·2·0·1·2·1·3) | 12/9g | 27/14g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 84' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 13 in 13g | 9/10g (2·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 9/11g | 15/16g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·4·3·1·1) | 9/10g | 8/8g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 11 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·2·2·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 3/5g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 10 in 12g | 10/10g (0·0·1·4·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 2/8g | 44% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 3/7g | 6/11g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 6 in 13g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 10/17g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 4 in 7g | 8/10g (0·3·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/5g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.39 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 30' |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 9/16g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/16g | 7/15g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/13g | 3/12g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/14g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/40g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Rozee | 27.5 | $1.93 | 61% | 32 ✗ |
| Zak Butters | 26.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 27 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 25.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 22 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 21.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 29 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 20.5 | $1.78 | 55% | 21 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.79 | 68% | 22 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.78 | 53% | 17 ✓ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 17 ✓ |
| Clayton Oliver | 24.5 | $1.91 | 49% | 26 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers | 21.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 13 ✓ |
| Jake Bowey | 21.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 21 ✓ |
| Max Gawn | 21.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 23 ✗ |
| Christian Salem | 19.5 | $1.95 | 44% | 16 ✓ |
| Ed Langdon | 18.5 | $1.75 | 45% | 17 ✓ |
| Kysaiah Pickett | 17.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)