# North Melbourne v Fremantle — AFL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 67 – 73 Fremantle

_Fremantle hold off a fast-finishing North Melbourne._

Half time: 27 – 48 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 6% / Fremantle 94% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 14 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Luke Davies-Uniacke (12' 1st), Zac Fisher (14'), Harry Sheezel (20'), Nick Larkey (38' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Luke Parker (88' ×2), Jack Darling (93'), Jacob Konstanty (65') · Fremantle: Patrick Voss (17' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Shai Bolton (21' Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (41' ×2), Murphy Reid (52'), Corey Wagner (55'), Sam Switkowski (86'), Caleb Serong (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 94% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 39.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 67–73 Fremantle in AFL Round 14 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne 67 defeated by Fremantle 73 at Optus Stadium, and the whole game hinged on one brutal quarter. Fremantle led by just two points at the first break, 19 to 17, then put on 31 points to North Melbourne's 8 across the second term. By half time it was 48 to 27, and North Melbourne never really got back into it from there.

The third quarter didn't offer any relief either. Fremantle stretched the margin out to 63 to 41 by the last change, a 22-point buffer that had the look of a comfortable finish written all over it.

North Melbourne did find something in the last quarter, outscoring Fremantle 26 to 10 to bring the margin back to 6 points at the final siren. It's a proper response, the kind of quarter that would have worried Fremantle if there'd been more time on the clock. There wasn't. The damage from that second term held up.

The numbers explain how North Melbourne could win a quarter like that and still lose the game. They had more of the football all night, 373 disposals to 348, more clearances, 41 to 37, and went inside 50 sixty times to Fremantle's 48. That's a lot of ball use and a lot of forward pressure. But Fremantle did more with less: 8 marks inside 50 against North Melbourne's 6, and a disposal efficiency of 73.6 per cent compared to 71.2 per cent. North Melbourne moved the ball more often. Fremantle moved it better.

That difference tracks with what the pre-match ratings had already suggested. Fremantle came in rated stronger everywhere it counts, 1049 to 880 in the midfield, 1052 to 853 up forward, and 1060 to 956 in the ruck. The ruck edge showed up in the hit-out count, 40 to 37, and Fremantle also won the intercept battle, 74 to 73, which let them turn North Melbourne's territory into their own use of the ball. North Melbourne's 77 tackles to Fremantle's 66 shows the pressure was real. It just wasn't enough to stop a side that made better decisions with the ball in hand.

Recent form pointed to this exact shape of contest. North Melbourne had been racking up 109.3 points a game over their last five outings, but also conceding almost as much back, 93.3 a game, the profile of a side that scores heavily and leaks just as heavily. Fremantle's recent form told a tighter story: 78.1 scored, only 71.2 conceded, and more wins on the board, 2.29 to North Melbourne's 1.05 across that stretch. Put a high-volume, leaky outfit up against a tighter, more controlled one, and this is roughly the finish you'd expect.

Alphr's model had Fremantle at 94 per cent to win, and got the result right. The margin pick was well off, tipping Fremantle by 39.9 points against an actual 6-point win, but the broader read on the contest, that Fremantle were the stronger side across the key indicators, held up. All three of Alphr's model picks for this match landed.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 19 | 8 | 14 | 26 | 67 |
| Fremantle | 17 | 31 | 15 | 10 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **373** | Disposals | 348 |
| **149** | Contested poss. | 147 |
| **41** | Clearances | 37 |
| **60** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| 72 | Marks | **73** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **8** |
| **77** | Tackles | 66 |
| 37 | Hit-outs | **40** |
| 73 | Intercepts | **74** |
| 71.2% | Disposal eff. | **73.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 39.9 but the actual margin was 6 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.13 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 93.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +36.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 40 · Predicted total: 148

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Fremantle at 80% here, and the model isn't losing sleep over the other 20.

Start with the ratings. Fremantle sit at 1503, North Melbourne at 1411. That's a 92-point gap, and it's the single biggest thing driving this number. When the gap's that size, you need something serious to close it.

North Melbourne have one thing going for them: Venue Advantage, playing at home. That's it. Everything else on the ledger, ELO Difference, Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO, all point Fremantle's way. Head-to-head history is rated even, so no help there either.

Look at the positional numbers and it's not close. Fremantle's midfield rates 1049 to North Melbourne's 880. Forwards are worse again: 1052 plays 853. Ruck goes 1060 to 956. Defence is the tightest of the lot, 964 to 943, which is about the only spot where North Melbourne aren't getting run over.

Form tells the same story from a different angle. Fremantle have banked wins at a rate of roughly 2.3 across their last five, North Melbourne closer to 1. Fremantle are also scoring less on paper, 78 points a game to North Melbourne's 109, but conceding far less too, 71 to 93. North Melbourne are the ones putting up bigger numbers and still losing more. That's a defence that leaks, matched against a side that doesn't.

Disposals and inside 50s are basically a wash, 339 to 343 the ball, 57 to 57 forward entries. So this isn't about who gets more looks. It's about what happens when they get there, and that's where Fremantle's edge in the midfield and forward line does the damage.

No milestones or team news on the sheet this week, so nothing more to add there. Just the raw form and ratings doing the talking.

The model has Fremantle winning by 8.2, with the two teams combining for around 169 points. That sits just over the market's total line of 165.5, and the model gives the OVER a 2.1% edge at $1.90.

On price, Fremantle head in at $1.13, which is short enough that the model actually rates it a touch expensive, marking an edge of minus 8.4% there. The margin market is where it sees more room: Fremantle winning by 1 to 39 points is on offer at $2.95, and the model likes that at a 44.7% edge. That's the shape of the price it prefers, backing the win but not paying full freight for the certainty.

For North Melbourne to cause a headache, the venue needs to matter more than the model thinks, and their defence needs to hold up better than its recent numbers suggest. Possible, not likely. The model's read is plain: Fremantle by a bit over a converted goal, and the total ticking past 165.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 81 · 121 | 98 · 95 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 86/g | 80/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 14.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.2/g | 7.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.5% | 68.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 26 · 32 | 36 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 140/g | 153/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.5/g | 29/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.5% | 70.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 18 | 13 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 9.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.8% | 81.8% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.47/g (lg 2.38) +4% · Key Forwards 3.53/g (lg 3.56) -1% · Forwards 4.1/g (lg 4.45) -8%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.66/g (lg 0.5) +32% · Forwards 5.84/g (lg 4.45) +31% · Defenders 1.67/g (lg 1.29) +29%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 24 in 12g | 19/10g (1·1·1·1·2·2·2·4·3·2) | 6/5g | 8/6g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 24 in 12g | 16/10g (4·2·2·1·1·2·1·2·1·0) | 7/4g | 16/6g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' 69' 72' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 22 in 9g | 23/10g (1·3·3·2·2·2·3·3·1·3) | 2/3g | 5/4g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 11 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·2·2·0·0) | 49/24g | 147/77g | 64% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 4/9g | 4/9g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 59% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·2·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 12/16g | 4/8g | 46% | — | 🏉 88' 74' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 3/8g | 32% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/11g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/26g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kallan Dawson | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 6g | 4/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Zac Fisher | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/7g | 12% | — | 🏉 14' |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 23 in 12g | 18/10g (3·3·6·1·2·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 51/35g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $7.88 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 17 in 12g | 16/10g (4·1·0·3·2·2·0·2·1·1) | 3/3g | 49/31g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 17 in 12g | 15/10g (1·3·3·0·2·0·1·3·1·1) | 3/4g | 57/49g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 16 in 11g | 16/10g (0·2·2·3·1·0·1·3·1·3) | 6/7g | 26/15g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 14 in 12g | 10/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·4·0) | 0/0g | 7/6g | 68% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 10 in 8g | 14/10g (2·2·1·1·0·1·2·1·1·3) | 0/0g | 8/9g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 54' 57' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 30/81g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 4/3g | 33/49g | 52% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/5g | 28/54g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 26/34g | 54% | — | 🏉 41' 90' |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/19g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/26g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 21/58g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 21/60g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 20/59g | 18% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/17g | 14% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 7/45g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/30g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/82g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nat Fyfe | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 12/13g | 26/49g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/17g | 5% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $2.00 | 59% | 23 ✓ |
| Harry Sheezel | 25.5 | $1.96 | 50% | 32 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 27 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $2.00 | 89% | 27 ✗ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 78% | 23 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 21.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 11 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 20.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 20 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.78 | 73% | 13 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 29.5 | $1.83 | 64% | 31 ✗ |
| Caleb Serong | 29.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 36 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 22.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 26 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 18.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 15 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 18.5 | $1.96 | 54% | 21 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 17.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 20 ✗ |
| Neil Erasmus ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.96 | 81% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)