AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 39.9 but the actual margin was 6 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
6%
Fremantle
94%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Fremantle carry a 340-point ELO rating advantage (1592 vs 1252). Recent form favours Fremantle with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 39.9 points with a combined total of 148.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.4%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +36.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.4%
Total Points
Under 165.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | WWLLL | 67.2 |
Fremantle | WWWLL | 77.2 |
Avg Conceded
74.0
North Melbourne
73.4
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-6.8
North Melbourne
3.8
Fremantle
Disposals
348.2
North Melbourne
340.0
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
North Melbourne
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Fremantle predicted to win by 40 points
Predicted total: 148 · Line: -39.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.20
Team Effectiveness
-0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.