AI Game Review
Hawthorn defied the model's 56% prediction for Adelaide Crows — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.4 but the actual margin was 3 points. The game's 91 points came in 43 points lower than the predicted 134. Hawthorn trailed 16–31 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 47–44. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 157.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
44%
Adelaide Crows
56%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Hawthorn are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Adelaide Crows carry a 105-point ELO rating advantage (1729 vs 1623). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 9.4 points with a combined total of 134.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.97
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.6%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.6%
Total Points
Under 157.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | WWLLL | 76.8 |
Adelaide Crows | WWWWL | 96.8 |
Avg Conceded
83.8
Hawthorn
65.6
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-7.0
Hawthorn
31.2
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
360.0
Hawthorn
335.8
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
Hawthorn
50.0
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 134 · Line: -9.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.20
Team Effectiveness
-0.48
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.