# Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 47 – 44 Adelaide Crows

_Hawthorn roar back to topple Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 16 – 31 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 44% / Adelaide Crows 56% · University of Tasmania Stadium · Fri, 13 June, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (33' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mabior Chol (65' Tipped ⚡), Connor Macdonald (77'), Jai Newcombe (84') · Adelaide Crows: Isaac Cumming (22' 1st), Ben Keays (51' Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 56% | Lost |
| Hawthorn | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.4 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 47–44 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 14 at University of Tasmania Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn 47, Adelaide Crows 44. Read the quarter time score and you'd have called it a rout the other way.

Adelaide led 15-2 after the first term and stretched it to 31-16 at the main break. Fifteen points down became a barnstorming Hawthorn quarter, then the margin held at 35-31 for Adelaide through three-quarter time. That's four points in it heading into the last, and Hawthorn found something the Crows didn't. The final quarter went 16-9 Hawthorn's way, enough to turn a four-point deficit into a three-point win by the siren.

The stat sheet doesn't scream Hawthorn victory anywhere. Adelaide won the clearance count 44-39 and the hit-outs 50-42, both areas where Hawthorn's ruck and midfield ratings (1013 and 1101) suggested they'd hold up better against Adelaide's higher-rated ruck (1061). They didn't, not on the clearance ledger anyway. Adelaide also had more of the ball inside 50, going in 59 times to Hawthorn's 52, and out-marked them 72-61 with the extra efficiency to match, 62.1% to 59.8%.

So how did Hawthorn win it? Tackles, mostly. Seventy-nine to Adelaide's 74 says a side that made the Crows work for every metre, and Hawthorn's defence rating (1088) edging Adelaide's (1067) coming in lines up with that pressure showing where it counted, on the scoreboard rather than the disposal count. Marks inside 50 were locked at three apiece, so neither side was cashing in easily up forward, it came down to who made the most of fewer looks.

Adelaide's form line coming in had them the more battle-hardened outfit by some measures, and the Crows' underlying numbers on the day back that up. But Hawthorn's recent form was the stronger overall, a 3.39 wins-from-five read against Adelaide's 2.41, and an average winning margin near 21 points compared to Adelaide's near 15. On paper that gap showed up when it mattered most, in the final quarter, even with the Crows dominating clearances and forward entries for most of the afternoon.

Alphr's model had Adelaide favourites at 56%, expecting them to win by 9.4 points in a game worth 134 combined. Instead Hawthorn got there by 3, and the two sides combined for just 91, a full 43 points shy of the projection. The model went 1 from 3 on this one, salvaged only by correctly tipping the under on 157.5. The margin call was a clean miss, and so was the winner. Low-scoring, scrappy, and decided by a final-term surge nobody on the ladder saw coming at quarter time.

Adelaide will look at the clearance and inside 50 numbers and wonder how they're on the wrong side of the result. Hawthorn will point at the tackle count and the scoreboard, and shrug. Football's like that sometimes.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 2 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 47 |
| Adelaide Crows | 15 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 44 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 335 | Disposals | **337** |
| 145 | Contested poss. | **157** |
| 39 | Clearances | **44** |
| 52 | Inside 50s | **59** |
| 61 | Marks | **72** |
| 3 | Marks inside 50 | 3 |
| **79** | Tackles | 74 |
| 42 | Hit-outs | **50** |
| 80 | Intercepts | **83** |
| 59.8% | Disposal eff. | **62.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Hawthorn defied the model's 56% prediction for Adelaide Crows, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.4 but the actual margin was 3 points. The game's 91 points came in 43 points lower than the predicted 134. Hawthorn trailed 16–31 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 47–44. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 157.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.97 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 56.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 157.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 9 · Predicted total: 134

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 109 · 97 | 146 · 90 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 92/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.9/g | 19.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.1/g | 9.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 68.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 37 | 45 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.2/g | 24.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.6% | 67.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 14 | 6 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 2.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 120/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.3/g | 10.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.2% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.39/g (lg 1.3) +7% · Midfielders 2.39/g (lg 2.39) +0% · Forwards 4.29/g (lg 4.46) -4%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.46/g (lg 1.3) +12% · Midfielders 2.44/g (lg 2.39) +2% · Key Forwards 3.49/g (lg 3.55) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at University of Tasmania Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 26 in 10g | 26/10g (2·2·6·3·4·3·3·0·2·1) | 19/14g | 61/35g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 48' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 24 in 13g | 18/10g (0·1·3·3·2·2·3·0·0·4) | 9/6g | 6/5g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 18 in 12g | 15/10g (2·1·0·2·1·3·2·3·0·1) | 2/1g | 7/4g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 15 in 12g | 13/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·2·1·3·2) | 6/5g | 3/4g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/31g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 11 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 7/6g | 22/18g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·3·0·1) | 4/4g | 10/11g | 58% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 6/7g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 7/15g | 46% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 4/19g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/18g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 3/10g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/15g | 4/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Henry Hustwaite | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/9g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Max Ramsden | KF | 0 in 1g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Seamus Mitchell | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 28 in 12g | 21/10g (2·3·4·0·2·3·4·1·2·0) | 11/7g | 3/2g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 28 in 13g | 19/10g (5·1·1·3·1·3·0·2·2·1) | 9/4g | 5/2g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 23 in 13g | 16/10g (1·3·1·0·2·2·0·1·3·3) | 5/10g | 1/3g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (2·4·0·1·2·2·1·5·3·3) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 84% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 20 in 12g | 18/10g (4·4·2·2·2·1·0·1·1·1) | 31/17g | 7/2g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $16.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 15 in 13g | 11/10g (0·2·1·1·2·2·1·1·1·0) | 7/5g | 1/2g | 82% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 11 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 10 in 13g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·1·2·1·1) | 1/7g | 1/2g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 8 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 4 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 4 in 3g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/16g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Murphy | FWD | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.78 | 72% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 20 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.77 | 61% | 17 ✓ |
| Henry Hustwaite ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 100% | 4 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 17.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 19 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 16.5 | $1.86 | 47% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 12 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 22 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.80 | 62% | 24 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.77 | 74% | 21 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.92 | 71% | 23 ✗ |
| Sam Berry ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 15 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 18.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 17 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 17.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 15 ✓ |
| Ben Keays | 16.5 | $2.00 | 56% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r14-hawthorn-v-adelaide-crows
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)