AI Game Review
Hawthorn defied the model's 56% prediction for Adelaide Crows, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.4 but the actual margin was 3 points. The game's 91 points came in 43 points lower than the predicted 134. Hawthorn trailed 16–31 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 47–44. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 157.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
44%
Adelaide Crows
56%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Hawthorn are far from out of this at 44%. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO, but Adelaide Crows counter with Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 21-point ELO rating advantage (1545 vs 1524). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 9.4 points with a combined total of 134.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.97
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.6%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.6%
Total Points
Under 157.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 107.9 |
Adelaide Crows | W W L L L | 98.5 |
Avg Conceded
87.2
Hawthorn
77.5
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
20.8
Hawthorn
14.7
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
350.2
Hawthorn
330.7
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.3
Hawthorn
44.5
Adelaide Crows
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1545 vs 1524), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.97).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 134 · Line: -9.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.20
Team Effectiveness
-0.48
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.