# Essendon v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 56 – 151 Geelong Cats

_Geelong Cats run riot over Essendon._

Half time: 25 – 60 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 6% / Geelong Cats 94% · MCG · Sat, 14 June, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Jade Gresham (5'), Matt Guelfi (18' ×2), Xavier Duursma (66'), Archie Roberts (85'), Isaac Kako (90'), Peter Wright (91' Tipped ⚡) · Geelong Cats: Shaun Mannagh (3' ×3 1st), Jeremy Cameron (11' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (24' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Brad Close (50'), Max Holmes (63'), Patrick Dangerfield (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Lawson Humphries (77'), Tyson Stengle (93' Tipped ⚡), Gryan Miers (68'), Oliver Dempsey (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Rhys Stanley (82')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 94% | Won |
| Essendon | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 42.6 predicted → 95 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 14 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm · Last updated: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 56–151 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 14 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Geelong Cats winning this one, and got that part right: 94% probability, correct side. What it didn't see coming was the size of it. Geelong Cats were tipped to win by 42.6 points. They won by 95. The combined score was picked at 148. It finished at 207. Two out of three isn't a bad night's work, but the margin call here wasn't close.

Go back to the pre-match numbers and the gap starts to make sense. Geelong Cats rated stronger everywhere bar the ruck: 1075 to 969 in midfield, 1069 to 1037 up forward, 1068 to 966 in defence. Essendon's only edge was ruck, 1062 to 1039. Throw in recent form, Essendon averaging a concession of 98.7 points a game and a minus 9.1 average margin over their last five, against Geelong's plus 12.1, and the ratings had this shaping as a comfortable win for the Cats. What nobody's model had was a 95 point demolition.

Track it through the quarters and you can see the read starting to fall apart in real time. Geelong Cats led 39-16 at the first break, already well clear of what a 42.6-point final margin would suggest. By half time it was 60-25. Essendon then had their best term of the day in the third quarter, scoring 30 points to Geelong's 44, and still lost that quarter by 14. Then came the final term. Essendon managed a single point. Geelong Cats piled on 47. A game that was meant to be tightening by the end just kept opening up.

The strange part is Essendon actually won some of the fundamentals. More disposals, 404 to 392. More contested possessions, 122 to 117. More clearances, 35 to 33.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 16 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 56 |
| Geelong Cats | 39 | 21 | 44 | 47 | 151 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **404** | Disposals | 392 |
| **122** | Contested poss. | 117 |
| **35** | Clearances | 33 |
| 38 | Inside 50s | **63** |
| 98 | Marks | **141** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **21** |
| 50 | Tackles | **51** |
| **43** | Hit-outs | 34 |
| 57 | Intercepts | **71** |
| 72.3% | Disposal eff. | **79.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 42.6 but the actual margin was 95 points. The game's 207 points came in 59 points higher than the predicted 148. Geelong Cats led 25–60 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 95. The model went 2/3 on this match. Geelong Cats covered the 36.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.13 (edge +5.9%) — model probability 94.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +36.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 43 · Predicted total: 148

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 68 · 99 | 131 · 96 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 5.6/g |
| Disposals | 102/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.2/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.2/g | 9.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 67.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 51 · 31 | 50 · 35 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 151/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.2/g | 19.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.3/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.2% | 68.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 22 | 8 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 10/g | 11.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.7% | 79.6% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.8/g (lg 3.56) +7% · Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.5) -2% · Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.45) -3%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.57/g (lg 1.29) +22% · Forwards 5.03/g (lg 4.45) +13% · Key Forwards 3.71/g (lg 3.56) +4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 16 in 8g | 16/10g (0·0·6·2·0·0·1·2·2·3) | 7/7g | 49/30g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 91' |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 14 in 12g | 14/10g (2·2·0·2·2·3·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 5/9g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 12 in 11g | 11/10g (0·1·2·1·3·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 17/30g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 11 in 12g | 10/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·2·2·1) | 5/4g | 22/29g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 34/76g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/8g | 33/27g | 56% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 6 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 36% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 8/15g | 38% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/4g | 14/26g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (3·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (2·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/7g | 17/33g | 64% | — | 🏉 18' 57' |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/18g | 11/28g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 5/30g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/52g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Archer May | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.58 AI 74% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $20.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 21/50g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 12/42g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 38 in 13g | 32/10g (1·4·2·4·1·2·7·6·5·0) | 40/15g | 112/41g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 15' 32' 34' 70' 75' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 20 in 13g | 15/10g (0·2·2·2·2·2·2·1·1·1) | 2/1g | 12/11g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 89' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 19 in 13g | 14/10g (2·0·0·1·0·2·1·2·2·4) | 11/4g | 37/23g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 93' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 17 in 11g | 15/10g (0·2·3·4·3·1·1·1·0·0) | 17/15g | 51/62g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' 87' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 14 in 13g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·5·1·0) | 1/1g | 4/7g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 26' 81' 72' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (1·0·3·0·2·2·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 7/5g | 72% | — | 🏉 3' 17' 79' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 10 in 13g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 6/6g | 22/28g | 68% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/14g | 21/75g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 6 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 16/27g | 40% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 7/12g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 7/6g | 22/33g | 46% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/7g | 3/39g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 23/50g | 18% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 15% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/21g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/36g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Duncan | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 37/70g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/33g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 8/36g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 0 in 1g | 12/10g (1·1·2·1·2·2·1·2·0·0) | 9/9g | 32/29g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/48g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 26.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 29 ✗ |
| Nic Martin ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 26 ✓ |
| Darcy Parish | 25.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 26 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell | 24.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 22.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| Will Setterfield | 20.5 | $1.74 | 57% | 31 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma | 18.5 | $1.95 | 44% | 20 ✗ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 30.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 41 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 27.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 36 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers | 23.5 | $1.75 | 66% | 25 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 20.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 18 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart | 20.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 19.5 | $1.83 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 18.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 19 ✗ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 16.5 | $1.75 | 46% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)