AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 42.6 but the actual margin was 95 points. The game's 207 points came in 59 points higher than the predicted 148. Geelong Cats led 25–60 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 95. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
6%
Geelong Cats
94%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Essendon with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 42.6 points with a combined total of 148.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.9%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats +36.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.9%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | W W W L L | 91.0 |
Geelong Cats | W L L L L | 76.5 |
Avg Conceded
98.7
Essendon
89.6
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
-9.1
Essendon
12.1
Geelong Cats
Disposals
336.2
Essendon
339.8
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
50.8
Essendon
50.6
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 43 points
Predicted total: 148 · Line: -42.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.30
Team Effectiveness
+0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.