AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 67% prediction for Brisbane Lions — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 203 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 161. GWS GIANTS trailed 64–48 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 96–107. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
67%
GWS GIANTS
33%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage. Brisbane Lions carry a 213-point ELO rating advantage (1703 vs 1491). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 2.5 points with a combined total of 161.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.20
Lost ✗
Edge
-16.3%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -27.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-16.3%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | WWLLL | 81.0 |
GWS GIANTS | WWWLL | 81.2 |
Avg Conceded
74.0
Brisbane Lions
84.2
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
7.0
Brisbane Lions
-3.0
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
376.4
Brisbane Lions
350.4
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
Brisbane Lions
50.0
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 161 · Line: +2.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.61
Team Effectiveness
-0.03
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.