# Brisbane Lions v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 14 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 96 – 107 GWS GIANTS

_GWS GIANTS fight back to stand tall over Brisbane Lions._

Half time: 64 – 48 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 67% / GWS GIANTS 33% · Gabba · Sat, 14 June, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Hugh McCluggage (13'), Lachie Neale (19'), Brandon Starcevich (20'), Logan Morris (40' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Josh Dunkley (61'), Zac Bailey (64' Tipped ⚡), Sam Day (74'), Jaspa Fletcher (94'), Cam Rayner (97') · GWS GIANTS: Aaron Cadman (7' ×5 1st Tipped ⚡), Callum Brown (11' ×3), Jesse Hogan (22' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Jones (68'), Xavier OHalloran (100'), Harry Himmelberg (81')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 67% | Lost |
| GWS GIANTS | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs GWS GIANTS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 14, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 96–107 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 14 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions were meant to scrape this one out, favourites by 2.5 points with the ELO ratings barely separating the two sides, 1519 to 1523. GWS Giants had other ideas, running out winners 107-96 at the Gabba. The model got the head-to-head wrong and the total wrong too, tipping 161 combined points when the sides put up 203. A rough night for all three picks.

The read wasn't mad early. Brisbane led 35-30 at quarter time and stretched it to 64-48 by half time, a 16-point buffer built on exactly what the pre-match numbers suggested: a stronger defence rating, 1060 to 1005, and a ruck edge that showed up all night in the hit-out count, which finished 42-28 in Brisbane's favour.

Then the third quarter happened. Brisbane managed just 9 points in it, GWS piled on 27, and by three-quarter time the ledger had flipped to 75-73 in the Giants' favour. That's an 18-point turnaround in one term, and it's the stretch that decided the game. Brisbane never got the lead back. GWS added another 32 points in the last to Brisbane's 23 and closed it out 107-96.

GWS's forward rating going in, 1029 to Brisbane's 997, lines up with how they hit the scoreboard when it mattered, and their midfield edge, 981 to 962, shows up in the disposal count. GWS had 361 disposals to Brisbane's 339 and used the ball far better, running at 76.2% efficiency to Brisbane's 67.4%. That gap in how cleanly each side moved the ball counted for more than raw possession numbers.

Brisbane actually won most of the contest indicators on paper. More contested possessions, 118 to 111. More clearances, 35 to 29. More inside 50s, 55 to 53. More marks too, 110 to 96. None of it translated to enough scoreboard pressure once GWS got their running game going, and that's the story of the second half.

Where GWS pulled it back was in the areas that turn territory into points. They marked the ball inside their forward 50 eighteen times to Brisbane's fifteen, meaning more of their entries actually stuck. They also brought serious tackling pressure, laying 42 tackles to Brisbane's 28, which choked off Brisbane's ball use in the back half of the game and explains why that efficiency gap opened up. Brisbane's intercept count, 58 to 52, shows they were still winning the ball back plenty. They just couldn't turn it into scoreboard pressure at the other end.

Form lines going in had flagged GWS as the more potent side on raw scoring, averaging around 93 points a game over their last five to Brisbane's 75, even though Brisbane had the better recent win rate. On this occasion the scoring form told the truer story. GWS put up 107, comfortably above their season average, while Brisbane's 96 was well up on theirs too, in a game that ran hot on both ends.

So the model's read held for about half the match. The defence and ruck edges were real and Brisbane cashed them in early. But GWS's midfield and forward advantages were also real, and once the third quarter turned, Brisbane's clearance and contested ball dominance couldn't paper over a widening gap in disposal efficiency and forward-half execution. A tough one to forecast, and an even tougher one for Brisbane to hang onto.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 35 | 29 | 9 | 23 | 96 |
| GWS GIANTS | 30 | 18 | 27 | 32 | 107 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 339 | Disposals | **361** |
| **118** | Contested poss. | 111 |
| **35** | Clearances | 29 |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 53 |
| **110** | Marks | 96 |
| 15 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| 28 | Tackles | **42** |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 28 |
| **58** | Intercepts | 52 |
| 67.4% | Disposal eff. | **76.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 67% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 203 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 161. GWS GIANTS trailed 64–48 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 96–107. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.20 (edge -16.3%) — model probability 67.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -27.5 @ $1.91 (edge -16.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 3 · Predicted total: 161

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | GWS GIANTS | 166 – 88 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | QE | GWS GIANTS | 100 – 105 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 64 – 82 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R7 | GWS GIANTS | 113 – 59 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2023 | R6 | GWS GIANTS | 87 – 108 | Brisbane Lions |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 116 · 95 | 123 · 82 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 83/g | 94/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.5/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.2/g | 9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.3% | 65.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 32 | 31 · 43 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 162/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.3/g | 19.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 19 | 3 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 140/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 10.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80% | 80.9% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.29) -3% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.5) -4% · Forwards 4.25/g (lg 4.49) -5%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.45/g (lg 4.49) -1% · Key Forwards 3.24/g (lg 3.55) -9% · Midfielders 2.08/g (lg 2.35) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 21 in 13g | 17/10g (1·5·2·4·0·3·1·0·1·0) | 18/13g | 128/95g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 20 in 12g | 16/10g (1·2·4·0·2·0·3·2·2·0) | 1/2g | 20/13g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 43' 59' 92' 90' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 19 in 13g | 15/10g (1·2·0·1·3·1·1·4·1·1) | 3/11g | 33/58g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 19 in 13g | 13/10g (3·3·0·3·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 8/11g | 68/77g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (3·0·0·0·3·1·0·3·1·2) | 25/15g | 163/85g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 13 in 13g | 12/10g (0·2·2·0·0·3·0·2·1·2) | 11/11g | 72/76g | 58% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/12g | 64/97g | 42% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 41/87g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 10/26g | 24% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 4 in 8g | 9/10g (1·4·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 3/3g | 19/20g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/16g | 36/77g | 22% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/21g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 17/17g | 130/147g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 6/32g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 4/35g | 16% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 2 in 7g | 8/10g (3·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/11g | 9/16g | 50% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/15g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 2/39g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/60g | 4% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 4/111g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/38g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 23/107g | 0% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 32 in 10g | 32/10g (4·9·2·2·1·7·1·4·0·2) | 34/11g | 13/4g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 25' 71' 78' 82' 90' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 16 in 13g | 13/10g (1·2·0·1·2·1·1·2·2·1) | 6/4g | 3/1g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 29' 56' 75' 83' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 13 in 9g | 13/10g (0·1·1·0·3·1·0·3·2·2) | 4/4g | 2/3g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 10 in 11g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·3·3·0) | 3/3g | 0/1g | 52% | — | 🏉 11' 88' 91' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 4/3g | 2/1g | 64% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 0/5g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (1·1·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 5/4g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 13/14g | 10/9g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/14g | 2/8g | 0% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 2/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nicholas Madden | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 25 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Lachie Neale | 25.5 | $1.78 | 48% | 25 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 24.5 | $1.83 | 56% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 23.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 19 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 20.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 16 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 20 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.90 | 43% | 11 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 29.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 26 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 31 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 26.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 33 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan | 24.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 32 ✗ |
| Josh Kelly | 21.5 | $1.95 | 41% | 23 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.80 | 66% | 11 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Brent Daniels | 16.5 | $1.80 | 48% | 3 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)