AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 67% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 203 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 161. GWS GIANTS trailed 64–48 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 96–107. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
67%
GWS GIANTS
33%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 2.5 points with a combined total of 161.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.20
Lost ✗
Edge
-16.3%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -27.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-16.3%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W W W L L | 74.7 |
GWS GIANTS | W W W L L | 93.4 |
Avg Conceded
77.8
Brisbane Lions
84.2
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
19.7
Brisbane Lions
18.9
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
370.6
Brisbane Lions
338.9
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
48.1
Brisbane Lions
43.8
GWS GIANTS
ELO–Market Disagreement
GWS GIANTS hold the ELO advantage (1523 vs 1519), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.20).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 161 · Line: +2.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.61
Team Effectiveness
-0.03
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.