AI Game Review
Hawthorn defied the model's 66% prediction for Western Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.9 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 140 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 159. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 175.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
66%
Hawthorn
34%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 93-point ELO rating advantage (1609 vs 1516). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 2.9 points with a combined total of 159.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.33
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.3%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -20.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.3%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W W L L | 103.4 |
Hawthorn | W W W W L | 107.6 |
Avg Conceded
87.0
Western Bulldogs
89.3
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
8.0
Western Bulldogs
15.7
Hawthorn
Disposals
367.0
Western Bulldogs
348.8
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
53.5
Western Bulldogs
53.6
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 159 · Line: +2.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.29
Team Effectiveness
-0.25
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.