# Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn — AFL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 59 – 81 Hawthorn

_Hawthorn see off Western Bulldogs._

Half time: 29 – 52 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 66% / Hawthorn 34% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 05 June, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Bailey Williams (10'), James Harmes (40'), Ed Richards (54'), Laitham Vandermeer (77' ×2), Rory Lobb (83'), Buku Khamis (81') · Hawthorn: Mabior Chol (7' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Josh Weddle (14'), Connor Macdonald (16'), Conor Nash (19'), Jack Gunston (51' Tipped ⚡), Jai Newcombe (52'), Jarman Impey (67'), Jack Ginnivan (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 66% | Lost |
| Hawthorn | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 59–81 Hawthorn in AFL Round 13 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty-eight inside 50s to 43. That's the number that explains Hawthorn 81, Western Bulldogs 59 at Marvel Stadium, and it's not close.

The Bulldogs actually won the clearance count, 40 to 34, which on paper should have meant more first use of the ball. It didn't translate. Hawthorn kept turning territory into entries at a rate the Bulldogs simply couldn't match, and every extra trip forward is another shot at goal, another chance to bank scoreboard pressure. Forty extra disposals for Hawthorn, 374 to 348, backed that up.

The hit-out battle tells the rest of that story. Hawthorn's ruck division won the tap 51 times to 36, a gap of 15, and it fed straight into the inside 50 count. Pre-match, the ruck rating actually favoured the Bulldogs, 1160 to 1046. On the day that didn't hold, and it's hard to look past hit-outs as the reason the territory numbers ran away from them.

The scoreboard reflected the grind from the opening term. Hawthorn led 32-8 at quarter time and never gave that buffer back, extending it to 52-29 at the half and 65-49 at three-quarter time before closing it out 81-59. A 24-point break in the first term is the kind of margin you don't claw back against a side also winning the efficiency battle, and Hawthorn's disposal efficiency of 70.3% against the Bulldogs' 64.8% meant every Hawthorn possession did more damage.

Marks tell the same tale in miniature. Hawthorn out-marked the Bulldogs 87 to 69 overall and 13 to 10 inside their forward 50, so when they went forward, they held the ball there. Tackle numbers were close, 82 to 76, which says the Bulldogs weren't short on effort. They just couldn't stop the ball arriving in dangerous positions often enough to matter.

Form lines going in suggested Hawthorn had a touch more scoreboard punch. Their average margin over the last five was 15.7 points against the Bulldogs' 8.0, and their scoring average of 107.6 sat above the Bulldogs' 103.4. Both of those form edges showed up, and then some.

Alphr's model had Western Bulldogs favourites here, expected to win by 2.9 points off ratings of 1609 to 1516, a 66% chance. Hawthorn tore that up, winning by 22. The model picked the total roughly right in shape, tipping 159 against an actual 140, and the under 175.5 call landed. But on the head-to-head and the margin, this one's a miss worth owning.

Western Bulldogs had the forward and defensive ratings on paper, 1131 to 989 and 1131 to 1004, plus a clearance win to show for it. None of it mattered without the ball getting inside 50 often enough or cleanly enough to use those strengths. Hawthorn just kept feeding the contest and let the volume do the rest.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 8 | 21 | 20 | 10 | 59 |
| Hawthorn | 32 | 20 | 13 | 16 | 81 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 348 | Disposals | **374** |
| 139 | Contested poss. | **143** |
| **40** | Clearances | 34 |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 69 | Marks | **87** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 76 | Tackles | **82** |
| 36 | Hit-outs | **51** |
| 67 | Intercepts | **68** |
| 64.8% | Disposal eff. | **70.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Hawthorn defied the model's 66% prediction for Western Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.9 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 140 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 159. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 175.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.33 (edge -9.3%) — model probability 65.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -20.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 3 · Predicted total: 159

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 81 · 99 | 101 · 95 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.7/g | 16.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7/g | 9.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.8% | 67.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 66 · 25 | 29 · 33 |
| Goal Assists | 6.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 181/g | 143/g |
| Inside 50s | 31.2/g | 21.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.9/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.5% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 9 | 26 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.3/g | 14.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.8% | 80.5% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.45/g (lg 1.3) +12% · Midfielders 2.43/g (lg 2.39) +2% · Key Forwards 3.55/g (lg 3.58) -1%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.39) +1% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.58) -6% · Forwards 4.03/g (lg 4.47) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 19 in 11g | 16/10g (0·1·1·3·3·1·3·0·1·3) | 19/10g | 108/69g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 78% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.25 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 19 in 11g | 19/10g (1·1·1·1·3·3·2·2·4·1) | 4/2g | 34/33g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 14 in 11g | 14/10g (0·2·0·1·2·2·0·3·1·3) | 1/6g | 27/39g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.37 AI 65% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 10 in 11g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·2·2) | 1/9g | 21/61g | 44% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (2·1·1·1·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 14/32g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 10 in 9g | 11/10g (1·3·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·2) | 3/5g | 19/33g | 48% | — | 🏉 77' 87' |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·3·2) | 0/1g | 7/18g | 32% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/13g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 8 in 6g | 12/10g (2·0·1·1·2·0·3·1·2·0) | 8/14g | 139/125g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·4·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 11/22g | 30% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·0·1) | 7/8g | 39/64g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 42/114g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/9g | 20/74g | 30% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/19g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 48/81g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 18/10g | 34/37g | 28% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Adam Treloar | FWD | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·3·0·2·1·0·0·1·1) | 10/16g | 44/61g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Gardner | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 25 in 9g | 25/10g (0·2·2·6·3·4·3·3·0·2) | 33/14g | 82/37g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 20 in 12g | 17/10g (3·0·1·3·3·2·2·3·0·0) | 2/3g | 15/9g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $16.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 60' 70' 80' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 13 in 11g | 13/10g (2·0·0·0·2·2·1·2·1·3) | 2/2g | 13/9g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 12g | 9/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·3·1·0) | 0/11g | 2/28g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 11 in 12g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 6/7g | 19/17g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·3·0) | 5/5g | 10/11g | 56% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 3/8g | 42% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/7g | 7/13g | 44% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 7/17g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 8/21g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 4/15g | 10% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 14/21g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 9/29g | 4% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/61g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Max Ramsden | KF | no games | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.87 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Butler | FWD | no games | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/3g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Seamus Mitchell | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | 27.5 | $1.92 | 60% | 14 ✓ |
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 30 ✗ |
| Adam Treloar | 25.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 20 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 25 ✓ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 24.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 24 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 23.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 29 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 73% | 20 ✓ |
| Tim English | 17.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 20 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders | 17.5 | $1.95 | 38% | 17 ✓ |
| James Harmes | 16.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 18 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 24.5 | $1.83 | 56% | 27 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 19 ✓ |
| James Worpel | 22.5 | $1.98 | 59% | 11 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 21.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 18.5 | $1.96 | 50% | 16 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Butler ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 95% | 14 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 23 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 17.5 | $1.78 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Weddle | 17.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 18 ✗ |
| Harry Morrison | 17.5 | $1.89 | 49% | 21 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)