AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 82% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sydney Swans by 41.8 vs the actual margin of 44 points. The game's 116 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 142. Sydney Swans led 25–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 44. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
18%
Sydney Swans
82%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Sydney Swans carry a 21-point ELO rating advantage (1486 vs 1465). Recent form favours Richmond with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 41.8 points with a combined total of 142.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+15.4%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+15.4%
Total Points
Under 158.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | W W W L L | 106.4 |
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 82.7 |
Avg Conceded
94.6
Richmond
96.5
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
11.7
Richmond
22.6
Sydney Swans
Disposals
339.1
Richmond
340.9
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
57.8
Richmond
56.3
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
82%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 42 points
Predicted total: 142 · Line: -41.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
-0.16
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.