# Richmond v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 36 – 80 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans glide past Richmond._

Half time: 25 – 39 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 18% / Sydney Swans 82% · MCG · Sat, 07 June, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Tim Taranto (12'), Seth Campbell (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Dion Prestia (19') · Sydney Swans: Corey Warner (8' 1st), Chad Warner (28' ×2), Isaac Heeney (45' Tipped ⚡), James Jordon (49' ×3), Will Hayward (52' Tipped ⚡), Brodie Grundy (73'), Aaron Francis (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 82% | Won |
| Richmond | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 41.8 predicted → 44 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 36–80 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 13 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond had the jump early. Twenty-two points to 16 at quarter time, and for a moment the MCG scoreboard looked like it might tell an entirely different story to the one the ratings suggested. It didn't last.

The second quarter is where this game actually happened. Sydney scored 23 points to Richmond's 3 to turn a six-point deficit into a 39-25 lead at half time, and from there it was a procession. A further 27 points to 1 in the third term pushed it out to 66-26, and by three-quarter time the only question left was how far the margin would stretch. Sydney closed it out 80-36, adding another 14 to Richmond's 10 in the last.

The forward half tells you why. Sydney went inside 50 a total of 61 times to Richmond's 38, and turned that pressure into 12 marks inside 50 against Richmond's 5. That's not just more opportunity, that's cleaner execution once they got there, which lines up with a 73.6 per cent disposal efficiency figure against Richmond's 65.0.

Sydney simply had it more. 389 disposals to 306, 127 marks to 82, and 75 tackles to Richmond's 59 says the pressure went one way for four quarters. The ruck battle was one-sided too, 52 hit-outs to 28, and Sydney backed that first-use advantage up at the coalface, winning clearances 39 to 30 and contested possession 109 to 123 in Richmond's favour, sorry, 123 to 109 the other way. Richmond's one square-up stat was intercepts, 63 to 56, a small win in a game that offered them almost nothing else.

None of it should shock anyone who looked at the positional ratings beforehand. Sydney went in rated higher at ruck (1030 to 977) and forward (940 to 926), and both edges showed up clean on the stat sheet. Richmond actually carried the better midfield rating on paper, 1008 to 933, and did lead the clearance count for roughly a quarter of the game before it got away from them, so that edge was real, it just wasn't enough once Sydney's ruck dominance and forward pressure took hold.

Form lines pointed the same way without quite predicting the size of it. Richmond had been averaging 106.4 points a game across their last five, well above Sydney's 82.7, so a scoreline this lopsided against Richmond wasn't what recent output suggested. Sydney's average winning margin over that stretch, 22.6 points, ended up less than half of what they put up here.

Alphr's model had Sydney at 82 per cent to win and picked the margin at 41.8, with an actual result of 44. Combined score landed at 116 against a projected 142, so the total ran under, but every other number the model leaned on, the ruck edge, the forward efficiency, the general share of the ball, arrived pretty much as billed. Clean sweep on the picks. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one was mostly wins.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 22 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 36 |
| Sydney Swans | 16 | 23 | 27 | 14 | 80 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 306 | Disposals | **389** |
| 109 | Contested poss. | **123** |
| 30 | Clearances | **39** |
| 38 | Inside 50s | **61** |
| 82 | Marks | **127** |
| 5 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 59 | Tackles | **75** |
| 28 | Hit-outs | **52** |
| **63** | Intercepts | 56 |
| 65.0% | Disposal eff. | **73.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 82% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sydney Swans by 41.8 vs the actual margin of 44 points. The game's 116 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 142. Sydney Swans led 25–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 44. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.50 (edge +15.4%) — model probability 82.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 42 · Predicted total: 142

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 80 · 109 | 74 · 104 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 79/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.8/g | 16.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.1/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.2% | 69.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 39 | 44 · 39 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.7/g | 24.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 66.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 19 | 14 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.2/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.3% | 75.5% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.5) +20% · Midfielders 2.39/g (lg 2.38) +0% · Forwards 4.45/g (lg 4.47) +0%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.57/g (lg 3.57) +28% · Rucks 0.59/g (lg 0.5) +18% · Midfielders 2.64/g (lg 2.38) +11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 17 in 12g | 13/10g (3·2·0·2·0·1·2·3·0·0) | 0/1g | 13/19g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 85' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 15 in 10g | 15/10g (1·1·1·1·2·3·0·2·2·2) | 16/10g | 149/65g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·2·2) | 4/14g | 28/44g | 52% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 7/10g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 24/37g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 2/2g | 11/31g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/9g | 32/109g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 4 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 26/86g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/17g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 7/44g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/16g | 7/34g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/20g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.70 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 3/13g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 28/83g | 30% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/34g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Smith | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/87g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 16/135g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 24/52g | 20% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 16 in 12g | 14/10g (1·4·1·2·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 6/7g | 26/21g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 14 in 9g | 14/10g (0·2·1·3·2·1·1·1·1·2) | 1/5g | 7/11g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 14 in 12g | 12/10g (0·0·2·2·1·1·0·2·3·1) | 15/11g | 28/29g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 12 in 12g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·2·0·0·2·1·0) | 3/5g | 13/14g | 66% | — | 🏉 8' 28' 90' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 10 in 12g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·1·1·1·1) | 2/5g | 1/13g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 8' 28' 90' |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 6/18g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 6 in 7g | 6/7g (0·1·1·2·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 60% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Aaron Francis | KF | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/16g | 18% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 12/39g | 26% | — | 🏉 49' 88' 71' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 6/16g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/15g | 45/120g | 12% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 5/15g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/20g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 7/23g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 6/34g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Adams | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/13g | 41/109g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/36g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/22g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 7/8g | 28% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | 25.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 22 ✓ |
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.81 | 47% | 25 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 24.5 | $1.75 | 50% | 21 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.93 | 77% | 21 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 20.5 | $1.78 | 62% | 15 ✓ |
| Kane McAuliffe ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 19 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 17.5 | $1.89 | 47% | 6 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 17 ✗ |
| Nathan Broad | 16.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 13 ✓ |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | 15.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 12 ✓ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 99% | 6 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 24.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 22 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 24.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 25 ✗ |
| Justin McInerney ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 99% | 19 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 20.5 | $1.91 | 42% | 22 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 65% | 34 ✗ |
| Callum Mills | 19.5 | $1.96 | 45% | 25 ✗ |
| Riley Bice | 18.5 | $1.83 | 63% | 22 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy | 18.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 19 ✗ |
| James Rowbottom | 18.5 | $1.96 | 51% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)