# North Melbourne v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 62 – 52 West Coast Eagles

_North Melbourne survive a scare against West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 21 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 91% / West Coast Eagles 9% · Hands Oval · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Luke Parker (7' 1st), Paul Curtis (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jy Simpkin (81' ×2), Finn OSullivan (71'), Cameron Zurhaar (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · West Coast Eagles: Jack Williams (51' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Elijah Hewett (72'), Liam Ryan (74' Tipped ⚡), Tom Cole (86'), Tyler Brockman (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 91% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 9% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 38.6 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 62–52 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 13 at Hands Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had North Melbourne winning this by 38.6 points. It got the winner right. It got almost nothing else right.

North Melbourne did win, 62-52 at Hands Oval, so the 91% probability on the moneyline holds up fine. But the margin was 10 points, not 38.6, and the combined score of 114 came in a full 60 points under the predicted 174. Two out of three isn't a bad return, but that middle figure was never close.

What makes the miss more interesting is that North Melbourne spent three quarters looking like the team the model got wrong in the other direction. They led 20-5 at quarter time, looking every bit like a side about to run away with it. Then West Coast clawed back, and by three-quarter time it was West Coast in front, 44-33. That's an 11-point swing across two quarters, with the Eagles outscoring North Melbourne 39-13 in that period. On paper, North Melbourne's forward and ruck ratings going in, 995 and 959 against West Coast's 1009 and 996, suggested a tight contest up forward. For a while, it looked like West Coast's edge there was the story.

Then North Melbourne turned it back around after the break, outscoring West Coast 29-8 in the final quarter to close it out 62-52. That's where the clearance count tells the real tale: North Melbourne won clearances 42-24, and while some of that dominance was banked all day, it's the kind of number that eventually turns into scoreboard pressure. Add 37 hit-outs to West Coast's 29, and North Melbourne's engine room was doing more with the ball than the earlier scoreline suggested.

Volume and efficiency backed it up. North Melbourne finished with 377 disposals to 312, and their disposal efficiency at 74.7% dwarfed West Coast's 63.9%. That's a side using the ball better even while conceding it more often. But North Melbourne's issue for three quarters wasn't winning the ball, it was doing enough with it. West Coast went inside 50 a remarkable 63 times to North Melbourne's 41, and made those entries count with 12 marks inside 50 to 7. That's an efficient forward line stretching a scoreboard, at least until the last quarter arrived.

West Coast's other numbers back up the read on why they were competitive for so long. They laid 81 tackles to 66 and read the ball in defence superbly, with 75 intercepts against North Melbourne's 59. That's a defence living up to its 941 rating coming in. But form lines suggested West Coast averaging nearly 105 points a game across their last five, and 52 here falls well short of that.

So the model's read on the contest wasn't crazy. North Melbourne's clearance and disposal edges were always going to matter, and did. What it didn't see coming was how tight the margin would stay, and how low the scoring would run compared to what both sides had been producing. The favourite got home. The manner of it was the surprise.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 20 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 62 |
| West Coast Eagles | 5 | 9 | 30 | 8 | 52 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **377** | Disposals | 312 |
| **144** | Contested poss. | 141 |
| **42** | Clearances | 24 |
| 41 | Inside 50s | **63** |
| **69** | Marks | 66 |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 66 | Tackles | **81** |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| 59 | Intercepts | **75** |
| **74.7%** | Disposal eff. | 63.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 91% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 38.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. The game's 114 points came in 60 points lower than the predicted 174. The model went 2/3 on this match. North Melbourne covered the 7.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $1.68 (edge +31.6%) — model probability 91.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +31.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 39 · Predicted total: 174

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 78 · 115 | 93 · 133 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 84/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 21.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.6/g | 8.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.7% | 68.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 32 | 22 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 140/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 13.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.1% | 70.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 29 · 18 | 5 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 2.4/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.9/g | 11.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.7% | 72.4% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.84/g (lg 0.5) +68% · Midfielders 3.53/g (lg 2.38) +48% · Key Forwards 4.71/g (lg 3.56) +32%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.5) +34% · Forwards 5.88/g (lg 4.46) +32% · Defenders 1.7/g (lg 1.3) +31%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hands Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 24 in 11g | 19/10g (3·4·2·2·1·1·2·1·2·1) | 25/8g | 0/0g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 90% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 22 in 11g | 21/10g (4·1·1·1·1·2·2·2·4·3) | 9/7g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' 86' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 19 in 8g | 20/10g (0·1·3·3·2·2·2·3·3·1) | 10/4g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 88' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 11 in 11g | 10/10g (2·1·0·2·0·1·0·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 81' 90' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 9/12g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 4 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 5g | 5/10g (1·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Zac Fisher | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/8g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (0·1·2·2·1·1·1·2·3·1) | 16/11g | 0/0g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (3·1·2·0·3·0·0·2·0·1) | 8/7g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 12 in 11g | 10/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·2·4) | 15/6g | 0/0g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 10 in 7g | 11/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·3·1·1·2) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 77' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 45% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·3·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 4/2g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bo Allan | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 86' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 27.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $1.82 | 46% | 29 ✗ |
| Harry Sheezel | 25.5 | $1.92 | 36% | 28 ✗ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 65% | 30 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 21.5 | $1.90 | 42% | 23 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 21.5 | $1.82 | 44% | 22 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 71% | 22 ✗ |
| George Wardlaw | 19.5 | $1.95 | 53% | 9 ✓ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 20 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 23 ✗ |
| Ryan Maric | 19.5 | $1.78 | 52% | 18 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 18.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 19 ✗ |
| Tim Kelly | 17.5 | $1.95 | 45% | 12 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 17.5 | $1.96 | 56% | 22 ✗ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.98 | 65% | 22 ✗ |
| Tyler Brockman ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.77 | 81% | 17 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)