AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 91% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 38.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. The game's 114 points came in 60 points lower than the predicted 174. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
91%
West Coast Eagles
9%
AI Match Overview
North Melbourne are clear favourites here at 91%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. West Coast Eagles are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but North Melbourne counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. West Coast Eagles carry a 32-point ELO rating advantage (1496 vs 1464). The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 38.6 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
North Melbourne to Win @1.68
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.6%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.6%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | W L L L L | 88.9 |
West Coast Eagles | W L L L L | 104.8 |
Avg Conceded
87.5
North Melbourne
81.5
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
7.4
North Melbourne
6.5
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
354.8
North Melbourne
336.2
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
47.5
North Melbourne
49.5
West Coast Eagles
ELO–Market Disagreement
West Coast Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1496 vs 1464), but the market favours North Melbourne (@1.68).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
91%
North Melbourne predicted to win by 39 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: +38.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
-0.06
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.