AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted North Melbourne to win at 91% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 38.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. The game's 114 points came in 60 points lower than the predicted 174. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
91%
West Coast Eagles
9%
AI Match Overview
North Melbourne are clear favourites here at 91%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees North Melbourne ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO. North Melbourne carry a 82-point ELO rating advantage (1231 vs 1149). The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 38.6 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
North Melbourne to Win @1.68
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.6%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.6%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | WLLLL | 72.4 |
West Coast Eagles | WLLLL | 79.6 |
Avg Conceded
83.0
North Melbourne
102.6
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
-10.6
North Melbourne
-23.0
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
340.6
North Melbourne
318.4
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
North Melbourne
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
91%
North Melbourne predicted to win by 39 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: +38.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
-0.06
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.