Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
23%
Collingwood
77%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Collingwood carry a 422-point ELO rating advantage (1830 vs 1407). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 20.1 points with a combined total of 143.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.3%
Line / Spread
Collingwood +23.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.3%
Total Points
Under 160.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | WWWLL | 91.4 |
Collingwood | WWWWL | 95.4 |
Avg Conceded
84.8
Melbourne
72.0
Collingwood
Avg Margin
6.6
Melbourne
23.4
Collingwood
Disposals
359.8
Melbourne
339.0
Collingwood
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
Collingwood
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
77%
Collingwood predicted to win by 20 points
Predicted total: 143 · Line: -20.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.04
Team Effectiveness
-0.34
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.