# Melbourne v Collingwood — AFL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 71 – 72 Collingwood

_A point the difference as Collingwood deny Melbourne._

Half time: 30 – 38 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 23% / Collingwood 77% · MCG · Mon, 09 June, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Tom Sparrow (4' 1st), Koltyn Tholstrup (27'), Kysaiah Pickett (60' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jake Melksham (73' Tipped ⚡), Bayley Fritsch (82' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Petty (92'), Final quarter (31m 31s)Bayley Fritsch (66') · Collingwood: Daniel McStay (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (25' Tipped ⚡), Beau McCreery (34'), Steele Sidebottom (50'), Will Hayes (58'), Tim Membrey (63' Tipped ⚡), Ned Long (71'), Bobby Hill (86' Tipped ⚡), Nick Daicos (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 77% | Won |
| Melbourne | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 20.1 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Melbourne 71–72 Collingwood in AFL Round 13 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood got out to an eight-point break by half time and never quite let it go, holding on to win 72-71 at the MCG in a finish that turned into a scramble.

The scoreboard tells the story of pressure building and then nearly buckling. Quarter time was locked at 14-14, no separation at all. Collingwood then found another gear before the main break, going to 38-30, and stretched the margin further across the third quarter to lead 57-50 at the final change. That seven-point buffer looked like it might be enough to see the job done comfortably. It wasn't. Melbourne piled on scoring in the last quarter, closing the gap all the way down to a single point, but ran out of time to complete the chase.

Collingwood's win was built on cleaner footy, not more of it in the right areas. They finished with 367 disposals to Melbourne's 327 and used it far better, hitting targets at 75.6% compared to Melbourne's 69.6%. That efficiency gap matters more than the raw disposal count. Collingwood also dominated marks, 116 to 73, and were sharper inside forward 50 too, taking 9 marks inside 50 against Melbourne's 6. When you're taking that many more marks, you're controlling territory without needing to win the ball back constantly.

Melbourne, by contrast, won the fight for first use. They took out clearances 39-29 and hit-outs by a landslide, 47 to 21. That ruck dominance lines up with the pre-match positional read, Melbourne's ruck rating of 1063 was the one category where they clearly outrated Collingwood's 999. But winning the taps and the clearances didn't translate into scoreboard control, because Collingwood's forward line rating (1057 vs 1016) and defensive rating (1054 vs 975) were both stronger coming in, and it showed. Melbourne pushed forward more often, 54 inside 50s to 45, but couldn't convert that pressure into the cleaner looks Collingwood kept generating.

Tackles were almost dead level, 60 to 59 in Collingwood's favour, and intercepts were close too, 76 to 73. Contested possessions went Melbourne's way, 144 to 115, which makes their inability to close the gap earlier a bit of a head-scratcher. All that hard ball didn't turn into enough scoreboard pressure until the last quarter, by which point Collingwood already had the lead banked.

Alphr's model called Collingwood to win at 77% and got there, backed by ratings of 1527 to Melbourne's 1524. The total score prediction of 143 landed exactly on the money. The margin was the miss, tipped at 20.1 points when the actual gap was just 1. A near-perfect read on the outcome and the scoring, let down only by how tight the finish actually was.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 14 | 16 | 20 | 21 | 71 |
| Collingwood | 14 | 24 | 19 | 15 | 72 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 327 | Disposals | **367** |
| **144** | Contested poss. | 115 |
| **39** | Clearances | 29 |
| **54** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| 73 | Marks | **116** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **9** |
| 59 | Tackles | **60** |
| **47** | Hit-outs | 21 |
| 73 | Intercepts | **76** |
| 69.6% | Disposal eff. | **75.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 20.1 but the actual margin was 1 points. Total score prediction of 143 was close to the actual 143, within 0 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.24 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 77.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +23.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 160.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 20 · Predicted total: 143

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 71 · 105 | 127 · 74 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 6/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.9/g | 21.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.7/g | 11.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 68.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 50 · 34 | 23 · 35 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 120/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.4/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 67.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 22 | 12 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.1/g | 11.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.4% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.3) -8% · Key Forwards 3.21/g (lg 3.55) -10% · Forwards 4.03/g (lg 4.46) -10%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.72/g (lg 0.5) +44% · Defenders 1.43/g (lg 1.3) +10% · Midfielders 2.27/g (lg 2.38) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 18 in 9g | 20/10g (2·0·2·5·1·1·2·2·5·0) | 8/8g | 90/57g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' 75' |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 13 in 12g | 10/10g (1·2·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·2) | 11/13g | 94/101g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 11 in 11g | 11/10g (1·0·0·2·2·2·0·1·2·1) | 14/11g | 126/78g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' 71' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 11 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·0·2·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/6g | 34/41g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 10 in 8g | 12/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·4·3·1) | 10/14g | 87/84g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (0·0·0·1·4·2·0·0·1·1) | 1/6g | 22/48g | 42% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/6g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 3/7g | 22/54g | 36% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 7/12g | 26/67g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 5 in 8g | 10/10g (4·1·1·1·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 11/14g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 4 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·3·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/4g | 41/30g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/13g | 23/101g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/17g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/39g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 7/16g | 60/119g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/58g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 16/97g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 5/9g | 29% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lever | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/66g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/32g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 6/66g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 33 in 12g | 29/10g (1·0·3·2·5·1·6·1·5·5) | 16/12g | 203/126g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 22 in 10g | 22/10g (2·3·0·3·2·1·4·1·2·4) | 17/9g | 143/85g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 17 in 11g | 16/10g (2·2·0·3·2·1·1·3·1·1) | 8/7g | 51/44g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 15 in 11g | 14/10g (4·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·3·1) | 29/12g | 48/23g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 8 in 7g | 12/10g (1·1·2·0·3·1·0·1·3·0) | 8/13g | 34/32g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 79' |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·1·0) | 18/16g | 102/112g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 26/51g | 56% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 10/18g | 99/175g | 24% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 39/53g | 42% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 5/18g | 49/146g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/15g | 32% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 6/23g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 8/8g | 38/62g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 3/22g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 30/79g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/17g | 80/177g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/24g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 39/105g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 7g | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/68g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 56/159g | 14% | — | — |
| – | William Hayes | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 58' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Clayton Oliver | 24.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 30 ✗ |
| Jake Bowey | 22.5 | $1.50 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Trent Rivers ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 22 ✓ |
| Christian Salem | 21.5 | $1.85 | 59% | 15 ✓ |
| Max Gawn | 20.5 | $1.85 | 52% | 20 ✓ |
| Ed Langdon | 20.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 4 ✓ |
| Kysaiah Pickett | 18.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 15 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 29.5 | $1.83 | 44% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 27.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 34 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 23.5 | $1.77 | 46% | 29 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 23.5 | $1.83 | 45% | 25 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.77 | 74% | 21 ✗ |
| Dan Houston | 19.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 18 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 18.5 | $1.77 | 40% | 21 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron | 15.5 | $1.87 | 39% | 16 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-melbourne-v-collingwood
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)