AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 116 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 146. Port Adelaide trailed 40–37 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 50–66. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
37%
Port Adelaide
63%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Port Adelaide carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1575 vs 1511). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 2.3 points with a combined total of 146.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @3.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+34.7%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -19.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+34.7%
Total Points
Under 159.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W L L L L | 89.5 |
Port Adelaide | W W L L L | 108.3 |
Avg Conceded
85.1
GWS GIANTS
71.5
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
11.0
GWS GIANTS
6.8
Port Adelaide
Disposals
336.4
GWS GIANTS
339.2
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
46.5
GWS GIANTS
50.0
Port Adelaide
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1575 vs 1511), but the market favours GWS GIANTS (@1.40).
The model sides with ELO, Port Adelaide predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 146 · Line: -2.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.07
Team Effectiveness
-0.26
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.