# GWS GIANTS v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 50 – 66 Port Adelaide

_Port Adelaide roar back to topple GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 40 – 37 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 37% / Port Adelaide 63% · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Jake Riccardi (16' Tipped ⚡), Jesse Hogan (20' Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (27' Tipped ⚡), Harvey Thomas (48'), Darcy Jones (63'), Final quarter (32m 55s)Jesse Hogan (67') · Port Adelaide: Willie Rioli (2' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Connor Rozee (7'), Kane Farrell (22'), Hugh Jackson (55'), Mitch Georgiades (70' Tipped ⚡), Christian Moraes (82'), Ollie Wines (86'), Joe Richards (94')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 63% | Won |
| GWS GIANTS | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 50–66 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 13 at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eleven marks inside 50 to eight. That's the number that decided it, and Port Adelaide made it count for a 66-50 win over GWS Giants at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka.

The scoreboard here tells a proper arc. Port led by two at quarter time, 22-20, before GWS hit back to lead 40-37 at the main break. Then the Giants went cold, dead cold. GWS didn't add a point in the third quarter while Port piled on ten to lead 47-40 at the last change. From there Port added another 19 to GWS's 10 in the final term to close it out 66-50. A flat second half from GWS against a side that kept its foot down.

The efficiency inside 50 explains a lot of that third-quarter shutout. Port turned 51 inside 50s into 11 marks and, more importantly, scoreboard pressure. GWS had 49 entries of their own but managed just 8 marks inside the arc, meaning more stoppages, more scrambled disposals, and fewer clean set shots when it mattered.

Everywhere else, this was close to dead even. GWS actually won the contested possession count, 144 to 135, and led tackles 75 to 64, so it's not as if they were beaten up physically. Clearances were locked at 45 apiece. Disposal efficiency was near identical too, 65.5% for GWS against 65.4% for Port. Total disposals were 345 to 343. On raw output, you'd struggle to split these two sides. Port's edges came in the areas that actually put points on the board: marks inside 50, hit-outs (38 to 33) and intercepts (79 to 77).

Alphr's model had this one largely right. It gave Port Adelaide a 63% win probability and they delivered. The margin picked, only 2.3 points, was well off the actual 16-point gap. The model also tipped a combined score of 146; the sides produced 116, 30 points under. Three from three on the picks that mattered, even if the margin number undersold how comfortably Port finished it off.

The pre-match numbers had flagged Port as the stronger side across the ground. Their midfield rating of 1134 outpointed GWS's 1023, and the gap up forward was even bigger: 1134 to 988. GWS held an edge in defence, 1059 to 1018, and the ruck battle was close, 1073 to 1047 in Port's favour. Those forward and midfield gaps look like the difference between a competitive contest and one that got away in patches.

Form lines pointed the same direction. Port arrived averaging 108.3 points a game across their last five compared to GWS's 89.5, and they'd been winning more often too, with a stronger recent win rate over that stretch.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 20 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 50 |
| Port Adelaide | 22 | 15 | 10 | 19 | 66 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **345** | Disposals | 343 |
| **144** | Contested poss. | 135 |
| 45 | Clearances | 45 |
| 49 | Inside 50s | **51** |
| 88 | Marks | **90** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **11** |
| **75** | Tackles | 64 |
| 33 | Hit-outs | **38** |
| 77 | Intercepts | **79** |
| **65.5%** | Disposal eff. | 65.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 116 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 146. Port Adelaide trailed 40–37 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 50–66. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $3.50 (edge +34.7%) — model probability 63.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +34.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 159.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 2 · Predicted total: 146

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 117 · 76 | 80 · 102 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 19/g | 17.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.3/g | 8.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 68.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 41 | 23 · 34 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.8/g | 22.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.4% | 69.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 14 | 16 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.9/g | 12.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 77.3% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.52/g (lg 1.3) +17% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.5) +4% · Forwards 4.58/g (lg 4.46) +3%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.5) -2% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.3) -4% · Midfielders 2.24/g (lg 2.38) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 30 in 9g | 35/10g (5·4·9·2·2·1·7·1·4·0) | 21/12g | 24/11g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 22 in 12g | 18/10g (2·3·5·0·2·0·1·1·3·1) | 18/16g | 52/30g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 15 in 12g | 13/10g (1·1·2·0·1·2·1·1·2·2) | 1/1g | 5/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 11 in 8g | 12/10g (1·0·1·1·0·3·1·0·3·2) | 5/3g | 10/7g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·3·3) | 3/4g | 5/6g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 9 in 11g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 60% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 9/11g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/6g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/4g | 40% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 3 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brent Daniels | FWD | 1 in 4g | 8/10g (2·1·1·3·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 9/12g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 17/27g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 14/20g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/13g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 3/24g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nicholas Madden | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 24 in 11g | 24/10g (4·2·3·3·3·2·1·2·1·3) | 6/3g | 0/0g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 15 in 10g | 15/10g (1·3·0·0·3·3·1·2·0·2) | 9/4g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' 40' |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 14 in 11g | 14/10g (3·0·1·2·2·1·1·2·2·0) | 3/8g | 0/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·1·2·0·1·3·0·2·1·0) | 4/11g | 1/2g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·2·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Jeremy Finlayson | KF | 5 in 6g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·3·0·1) | 2/3g | 5/5g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 9/15g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Ryan Burton | DEF | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 0 in 3g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Jackson | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 29.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 31 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 28.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 24 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $2.05 | 64% | 30 ✗ |
| Josh Kelly | 23.5 | $1.81 | 48% | 17 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 19.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 19 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 18.5 | $1.85 | 60% | 16 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 17.5 | $1.96 | 51% | 3 ✓ |
| Xavier O'Halloran ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.94 | 79% | 14 ✓ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Rozee | 26.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 28 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.94 | 62% | 23 ✓ |
| Zak Butters | 25.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 32 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.80 | 69% | 23 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 18.5 | $1.91 | 46% | 21 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell | 18.5 | $1.77 | 58% | 17 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 18.5 | $1.78 | 45% | 22 ✗ |
| Ryan Burton | 17.5 | $1.85 | 49% | 16 ✓ |
| Sam Powell-Pepper | 14.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 9 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r13-gws-giants-v-port-adelaide
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)