# Geelong Cats v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 61 – 37 Gold Coast SUNS

_Geelong Cats toy with Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 28 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 72% / Gold Coast SUNS 28% · GMHBA Stadium · Sat, 07 June, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Lawson Humphries (10' 1st), Brad Close (37'), Tyson Stengle (59' ×4), Final quarter (35m 20s)Oliver Dempsey (73'), Gryan Miers (80') · Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (34' Tipped ⚡), Matt Rowell (42'), Ben Long (47' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Humphrey (81')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 72% | Won |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 20.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 61–37 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 13 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen points to two at the first change, and it looked like it might get ugly early. Gold Coast SUNS had other ideas for a while there.

By half time the margin had shrunk to seven, 28-21, and the SUNS were still very much in it. That's the version of this game where a comeback gets written up. It didn't happen. Geelong Cats pushed the margin to 16 by the three-quarter mark, 43-27, and from there the gap only grew, the Cats running out winners 61-37, a 24-point margin by the final siren.

The disposal count tells you where that gap came from. Geelong finished with 370 to Gold Coast's 286, and they did more with it too, hitting targets at 70.2% against 66.9%. Add 148 contested possessions to the SUNS's 125 and you've got a side that had the ball more and used it better, which is about as complete a description of a home win as you'll find.

Oddly, none of that showed up in the ruck contest. Gold Coast won hit-outs 74-57, comfortably, which lines up with the ruck ratings coming in, Geelong 973 to Gold Coast 965, tight enough that either result made sense. But winning the tap didn't translate to winning the ball, with clearances locked at 50-50 and Geelong doing the rest of the damage in general play.

Marks tell that story bluntly: 105 to 55 overall, and 10 to 4 inside forward 50, where clean hands matter most. Geelong also edged the inside 50 count, 55 to 51, a modest gap on paper that turned into a much bigger one on the scoreboard once you factor in what they did with that extra ball movement.

The tackle count, 81 to 66 in Geelong's favour, suggests the pressure differential ran the same direction as everything else. Intercepts were closer, 72 to 67, but even there Geelong found the edge. Gold Coast's forward and midfield ratings were actually rated stronger coming in, 997 to 985 up forward and 1002 to 996 through the middle, and their defensive rating had them well ahead too, 1033 to 954. On paper this was closer to even than the scoreboard ended up saying.

In practice, Geelong's underlying form carried through.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 14 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 61 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 2 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 37 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **370** | Disposals | 286 |
| **148** | Contested poss. | 125 |
| 50 | Clearances | 50 |
| **55** | Inside 50s | 51 |
| **105** | Marks | 55 |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| **81** | Tackles | 66 |
| 57 | Hit-outs | **74** |
| **72** | Intercepts | 67 |
| **70.2%** | Disposal eff. | 66.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Geelong Cats by 20.0 vs the actual margin of 24 points. The game's 98 points came in 66 points lower than the predicted 164. Geelong Cats led 28–21 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/3 on this match. Geelong Cats covered the 15.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.42 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 72.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 158.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 20 · Predicted total: 164

### H2H History (Last 5) — Gold Coast SUNS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Geelong Cats | 105 – 60 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2026 | OR | Gold Coast SUNS | 125 – 69 | Geelong Cats |
| 2024 | R10 | Gold Coast SUNS | 164 – 100 | Geelong Cats |
| 2023 | R3 | Gold Coast SUNS | 73 – 54 | Geelong Cats |
| 2022 | R22 | Gold Coast SUNS | 59 – 119 | Geelong Cats |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 125 · 92 | 123 · 77 |
| Goal Assists | 5.8/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 113/g |
| Inside 50s | 22/g | 22.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.8/g | 10.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.7% | 67.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 48 · 34 | 22 · 33 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.3/g | 20.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 70.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 15 | 12 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 11/g | 15.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.2% | 80.6% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.58/g (lg 1.3) +22% · Midfielders 2.42/g (lg 2.39) +1% · Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.47) -2%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.83/g (lg 3.57) +7% · Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.5) +0% · Forwards 4.37/g (lg 4.47) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 38 in 12g | 33/10g (1·1·4·2·4·1·2·7·6·5) | 66/17g | 99/38g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 94% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 19 in 12g | 15/10g (1·0·2·2·2·2·2·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 16/17g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 68% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 17 in 10g | 17/10g (2·0·2·3·4·3·1·1·1·0) | 17/13g | 69/65g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 15 in 12g | 10/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·2·1·2·2) | 9/4g | 58/29g | 76% | — | 🏉 59' 83' 93' 83' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 14 in 12g | 11/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·5·1) | 2/1g | 20/12g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 12 in 9g | 13/10g (1·1·0·3·0·2·2·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 8/8g | 77% | — | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 40/38g | 68% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 20/90g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 6 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 12/32g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 5/5g | 38/48g | 44% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 25/51g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 9/46g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/29g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ted Clohesy | FWD | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 9% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/45g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Duncan | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/10g | 57/92g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/39g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 13/54g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | no games | 15/10g (3·1·1·2·1·2·2·1·2·0) | 3/5g | 3/3g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.43 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/61g | 2% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 32 in 11g | 26/10g (4·2·5·1·5·1·3·2·2·1) | 11/5g | 6/3g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (4·1·2·3·3·1·1·4·3·1) | 7/9g | 4/3g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 13 in 10g | 13/10g (1·3·1·1·3·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 70% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 12 in 11g | 10/10g (3·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 4/10g | 2/6g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·2·1·0·3) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·4·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·2·0) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 5 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 38% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | David Swallow | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 0/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sean Lemmens | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $2.10 | 58% | 40 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.98 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $2.05 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.79 | 68% | 23 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries | 18.5 | $1.93 | 52% | 15 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 17.5 | $1.82 | 53% | 16 ✓ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 17.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 7 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 16.5 | $1.92 | 44% | 14 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 27.5 | $1.79 | 46% | 19 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell | 24.5 | $1.74 | 62% | 24 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 24.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 20 ✓ |
| John Noble | 23.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 12 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 16 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 18.5 | $1.78 | 44% | 25 ✗ |
| Sam Clohesy | 16.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 12 ✓ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 12 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 15.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 25 ✗ |
| Wil Powell | 14.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)