AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 83% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Carlton by 5.8 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 150 was close to the actual 148, within 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
83%
Essendon
17%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 83%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Carlton ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Carlton carry a 53-point ELO rating advantage (1576 vs 1522). Recent form favours Essendon with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Carlton by 5.8 points with a combined total of 150.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.0%
Line / Spread
Carlton -13.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.0%
Total Points
Over 148.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W L L L L | 109.8 |
Essendon | W W W L L | 85.5 |
Avg Conceded
69.3
Carlton
82.4
Essendon
Avg Margin
20.1
Carlton
16.4
Essendon
Disposals
344.3
Carlton
372.4
Essendon
Inside 50s
49.5
Carlton
45.2
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
83%
Carlton predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 150 · Line: +5.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.18
Team Effectiveness
-0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.