# Carlton v Essendon — AFL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 78 – 70 Essendon

_Carlton scrape past Essendon in a tight one._

Half time: 54 – 26 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 83% / Essendon 17% · MCG · Sun, 08 June, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Charlie Curnow (7' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Jesse Motlop (10' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch McGovern (14'), Zac Williams (27' ×2), Orazio Fantasia (45' Tipped ⚡), Tom De Koning (64'), Final quarter (29m 37s)Blake Acres (68') · Essendon: Luamon Lual (21'), Jye Caldwell (49'), Archie Perkins (51' Tipped ⚡), Peter Wright (67' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jade Gresham (94' ×2), Nic Martin (86' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Duursma (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 83% | Won |
| Essendon | 17% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 13 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 78–70 Essendon in AFL Round 13 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty marks. That's the gap between Carlton's 115 and Essendon's 65, and it's the number that explains how Carlton got out to a lead and then spent the last quarter fending off a fairly determined chase, winning 78-70 at the MCG.

The scoreboard tells you Carlton led 40-7 at quarter time and 54-26 at the main break. That's not a competitive start from Essendon, it's aops of control. But football being what it is, Essendon clawed back at the other end, outscoring Carlton from three-quarter time to close a 62-51 margin down to the final 8-point result. Whatever happened in that last stretch, it wasn't enough, but it wasn't nothing either.

Go back to the marks count and everything else lines up behind it. Carlton took 14 marks inside 50 to Essendon's 11, which meant more clean entries and fewer scrambled ones. Carlton also won contested possession 155 to 144 and clearances 39 to 38, tight margins on paper but enough to feed a forward line that already had the personnel advantage, with Carlton's forward rating of 1085 well clear of Essendon's 991 coming in.

Essendon's best work was with ball in hand. They ran a disposal efficiency of 71.1% to Carlton's 67.6%, and led tackles 78 to 73. That's a side that defended the contest hard and moved the ball cleanly when they had it, which is presumably how they clawed 19 points back into the game after trailing by 33 at half time. It just wasn't paired with enough of the ball itself, and it certainly wasn't paired with reading the intercept picture, where Carlton's defence, rated 1049 against Essendon's 1017 pre-match, pulled down 86 to Essendon's 76.

The ruck battle went to Carlton too, 37 hit-outs to 32, which tracks with a 1075-to-977 ruck rating edge walking in and helps explain why Carlton kept winning first use of the ball at stoppages even while losing the raw efficiency count.

Form lines suggested this was coming, if not by this margin. Carlton arrived averaging 109.75 points a game across their last five and conceding just 69.34, numbers that look like exactly the sort of team that puts a game to bed by quarter time. Essendon's form was more middling, 85.48 scored and 82.43 conceded, competent without being fearsome.

Alphr's model had Carlton at 83% to win, expected them by 5.8, and picked a combined total of 150. The final was Carlton by 8 on a total of 148. That's about as tight a read as you'll get without nailing it outright, and Carlton comfortably covered the 13.5-point line on offer.

Nothing flashy here, just a bigger side dominating the marking contest and cashing it in as scoreboard pressure, while the smaller, cleaner side made a fight of the back half without ever threatening to complete the job.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 40 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 78 |
| Essendon | 7 | 19 | 25 | 19 | 70 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **371** | Disposals | 362 |
| **155** | Contested poss. | 144 |
| **39** | Clearances | 38 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| **115** | Marks | 65 |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 73 | Tackles | **78** |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 32 |
| **86** | Intercepts | 76 |
| 67.6% | Disposal eff. | **71.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 83% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Carlton by 5.8 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 150 was close to the actual 148, within 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. Carlton covered the 13.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.38 (edge +11.0%) — model probability 83.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 148.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 6 · Predicted total: 150

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 74 · 83 | 63 · 93 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.9/g | 14.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.6/g | 5.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.5% | 67% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 28 | 45 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 163/g | 150/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.4/g | 21.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 72.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 16 | 11 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.4/g | 10.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76% | 78.9% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.54/g (lg 1.3) +18% · Forwards 5.07/g (lg 4.46) +14% · Key Forwards 3.72/g (lg 3.56) +4%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.5) +4% · Forwards 4.51/g (lg 4.46) +1% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.3) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 24 in 10g | 24/10g (0·3·1·2·4·3·2·3·3·3) | 12/6g | 108/52g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 25' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 10 in 11g | 10/10g (0·0·1·3·1·0·2·0·2·1) | 3/11g | 39/83g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.65 AI 58% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 8 in 7g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·4·1) | 7/8g | 10/31g | 36% | — | 🏉 27' 78' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·3·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 10/20g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.63 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 92' |
| – | Will White | FWD | 7 in 8g | 7/8g (0·1·3·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 63% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 36% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 14/43g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·2) | 3/3g | 16/31g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 15/45g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 11/32g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 14/37g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 34/51g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/10g | 9/63g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 15/30g | 30% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/7g | 27/40g | 14% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/60g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Alex Cincotta | FWD | no games | 5/10g (2·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 8/15g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Hudson O'Keeffe | RUC | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 7/70g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/27g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Orazio Fantasia | FWD | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·4·1·1·1) | 2/1g | 44/32g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.55 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 14 in 11g | 14/10g (0·2·2·0·2·2·3·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 72% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 13 in 7g | 15/10g (2·0·0·6·2·0·0·1·2·2) | 14/9g | 46/29g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' 74' 78' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·0·1·2·1·3·1·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 16/29g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.54 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 10 in 11g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·2·2) | 2/3g | 21/28g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.71 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 11g | 6/10g (4·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 34/75g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 10/29g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 31/26g | 56% | — | 🏉 94' 82' |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 4 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/14g | 36% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (3·0) | 0/0g | 3/1g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 13/25g | 42% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 16/32g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/13g | 11/27g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/29g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/51g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Parish | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/9g | 21/49g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 12/41g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | 27.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 29 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Sam Walsh | 25.5 | $1.89 | 49% | 32 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 25.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 24 ✓ |
| Sam Docherty | 21.5 | $1.81 | 51% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 23 ✗ |
| Adam Saad | 19.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 16 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 18.5 | $1.85 | 49% | 29 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 27.5 | $1.92 | 46% | 14 ✓ |
| Nic Martin ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 71% | 32 ✗ |
| Darcy Parish | 24.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 31 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.80 | 72% | 14 ✓ |
| Jye Caldwell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 22.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Will Setterfield | 20.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 17 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 18.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)