AI Game Review
Adelaide Crows defied the model's 60% prediction for Brisbane Lions — a notable upset. The margin model was sharp — predicting Adelaide Crows by 4.5 vs the actual margin of 5 points. Adelaide Crows trailed 25–33 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 68–63. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 152.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
40%
Brisbane Lions
60%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Adelaide Crows are far from out of this at 40%. Adelaide Crows are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including Recent Win Rate, Forward Line ELO and Scoring Form — but Brisbane Lions counter with ELO Difference and Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Brisbane Lions carry a 24-point ELO rating advantage (1728 vs 1704). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 4.5 points with a combined total of 146.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @2.62
Lost ✗
Edge
+21.6%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.6%
Total Points
Under 152.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | WWWWL | 105.2 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWLL | 81.6 |
Avg Conceded
63.0
Adelaide Crows
70.2
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
42.2
Adelaide Crows
11.4
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
351.6
Adelaide Crows
376.0
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Adelaide Crows
50.0
Brisbane Lions
ELO–Market Disagreement
Brisbane Lions hold the ELO advantage (1728 vs 1704), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.62).
The model sides with ELO — Brisbane Lions predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 146 · Line: +4.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.27
Team Effectiveness
-0.36
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.