# Adelaide Crows v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 13 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 68 – 63 Brisbane Lions

_Adelaide Crows surge back to pick apart Brisbane Lions._

Half time: 25 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 40% / Brisbane Lions 60% · Adelaide Oval · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Josh Rachele (52' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (58' Tipped ⚡), Luke Pedlar (89'), Final quarter (32m 10s)Riley Thilthorpe (64'), Ben Keays (66' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (69') · Brisbane Lions: Cam Rayner (21' ×2 1st), Callum Ah Chee (22'), Zac Bailey (42'), Hugh McCluggage (46'), Charlie Cameron (72' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kai Lohmann (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 60% | Lost |
| Adelaide Crows | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 13, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 68–63 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 13 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Brisbane Lions wanted the ball in their hands and kept it there, 375 disposals to 301, clearances won 55 to 36. Adelaide Crows wanted Brisbane's players on the ground, 89 tackles to 63. Two very different theories about how to win a footy match, and for three quarters Brisbane's theory looked like the right one.

Final score: Adelaide Crows 68, Brisbane Lions 63. A five-point win built almost entirely in the last quarter.

Because at three-quarter time this wasn't close. Brisbane led 55-38, a lead built on exactly the volume football the disposal count suggests, 60 inside 50s to 47, 73 marks to 62. Adelaide had spent the first three quarters tackling hard and still trailing by 17. Then the last quarter arrived and Adelaide scored 30 points to Brisbane's 8. That's the whole story of the result, sitting almost entirely in one twenty-minute stretch.

The clearance and disposal gap tells you Brisbane's midfield and ruck did what the pre-match ratings said they should. Brisbane went in rated stronger at the stoppages, 993 to 955 in the ruck, and it showed all afternoon in general play. But general play isn't the scoreboard. Adelaide's 89 tackles to 63 meant every one of those Brisbane possessions cost something, and disposal efficiency finished almost dead level, 66.4% to 66.9%, despite the huge gap in raw volume. Brisbane moved the ball more. It didn't move it that much better.

Adelaide's other quiet edge was in the air around the contest, 75 intercepts to 72, and 58 hit-outs to Brisbane's 49, numbers that don't scream dominance but chip away at whoever's trying to control tempo. Add the tackling pressure and you get a picture of Adelaide making Brisbane's route to goal expensive, even while Brisbane kept walking it.

Brisbane's forward line rated the stronger unit coming in, 1041 to 978, and their defence too, 1028 to 982. On the stat sheet across the four quarters that edge held up, more marks inside 50, more entries, more of the footy generally. It just didn't hold up when the scoreboard actually mattered, in that final term.

Alphr's model had Brisbane as the 60% favourite here, so this was an upset by its own numbers. But the margin read was close to spot on, Adelaide by 4.5 predicted against an actual 5-point win, and the model's under 152.5 combined total call landed too, with the game finishing on 131. Two out of three isn't a bad return on a match that flipped as hard as this one did, but the head-to-head miss is the one that stings, favouring the side that led by 17 with a quarter to go and still lost.

Brisbane will look at 375 disposals and 60 inside 50s and wonder how a performance with that much territory finishes on the wrong side of the ledger. The answer is mostly written in the tackle count. Adelaide made them earn every one of those numbers, and when it mattered, in the only quarter that decided anything, Brisbane simply stopped scoring.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 6 | 19 | 13 | 30 | 68 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15 | 18 | 22 | 8 | 63 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 301 | Disposals | **375** |
| 144 | Contested poss. | **157** |
| 36 | Clearances | **55** |
| 47 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| 62 | Marks | **73** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **7** |
| **89** | Tackles | 63 |
| **58** | Hit-outs | 49 |
| **75** | Intercepts | 72 |
| 66.4% | Disposal eff. | **66.9%** |

**Model Report Card**

Adelaide Crows defied the model's 60% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Adelaide Crows by 4.5 vs the actual margin of 5 points. Adelaide Crows trailed 25–33 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 68–63. The model went 2/3 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 10.5-point line. The under 152.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.62 (edge +21.6%) — model probability 59.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 152.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 5 · Predicted total: 146

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Brisbane Lions | 127 – 75 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R17 | Brisbane Lions | 97 – 86 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R9 | Adelaide Crows | 90 – 90 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2023 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 99 – 93 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2023 | R11 | Adelaide Crows | 95 – 78 | Brisbane Lions |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 137 · 83 | 109 · 86 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 83/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.5/g | 18.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.8/g | 9.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 66.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 44 · 33 | 30 · 31 |
| Goal Assists | 5.4/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 162/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.4/g | 25.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.7% | 69.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 11 | 16 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.8/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.4% | 80.4% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.42/g (lg 4.5) -2% · Key Forwards 3.26/g (lg 3.58) -9% · Midfielders 2.09/g (lg 2.35) -11%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.41/g (lg 1.3) +8% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.35) +1% · Forwards 4.28/g (lg 4.5) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 28 in 11g | 24/10g (3·2·3·4·0·2·3·4·1·2) | 7/5g | 109/65g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 27 in 12g | 21/10g (3·5·1·1·3·1·3·0·2·2) | 4/3g | 48/38g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 20 in 12g | 15/10g (2·1·3·1·0·2·2·0·1·3) | 7/7g | 55/68g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.47 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' 81' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 20 in 9g | 21/10g (1·2·4·0·1·2·2·1·5·3) | 4/5g | 52/37g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' 65' 75' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 19 in 11g | 18/10g (1·4·4·2·2·2·1·0·1·1) | 44/15g | 274/122g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 15 in 12g | 11/10g (0·0·2·1·1·2·2·1·1·1) | 8/8g | 56/30g | 84% | — | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 11 in 12g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·1) | 9/14g | 11/19g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·2·1) | 1/7g | 24/48g | 36% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 8 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 2/5g | 16/41g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/12g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/5g | 5/15g | 22% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 5/6g | 3/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 4/4g | 17/16g | 57% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/12g | 31/113g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 4/35g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 18/62g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/33g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/41g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 8/73g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/43g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 18/132g | 6% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 21 in 12g | 18/10g (1·1·5·2·4·0·3·1·0·1) | 7/11g | 12/9g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 20 in 11g | 19/10g (3·1·2·4·0·2·0·3·2·2) | 3/2g | 4/2g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 18 in 12g | 14/10g (0·1·2·0·1·3·1·1·4·1) | 10/8g | 6/5g | 68% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 18 in 12g | 13/10g (1·3·3·0·3·0·1·1·1·0) | 9/6g | 11/7g | 72% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (1·3·0·0·0·3·1·0·3·1) | 22/8g | 73/48g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' 90' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 11 in 12g | 11/10g (1·0·2·2·0·0·3·0·2·1) | 8/8g | 5/7g | 56% | — | 🏉 21' 37' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 8/9g | 40% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 3/10g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 3/14g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/16g | 14/13g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 3 in 7g | 10/10g (2·1·4·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 2/2g | 1/2g | 52% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/11g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Deven Robertson | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $2.05 | 50% | 25 ✗ |
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 18 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 74% | 19 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine | 21.5 | $1.67 | 66% | 18 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 17 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 18.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 18 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 17.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 14 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 17.5 | $1.98 | 50% | 16 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Ben Keays | 16.5 | $1.77 | 54% | 20 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.78 | 68% | 31 ✗ |
| Lachie Neale | 27.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 22 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 25.5 | $1.78 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 24.5 | $1.77 | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 27 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 19.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 23 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry | 18.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 28 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.85 | 65% | 14 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 16.5 | $1.76 | 58% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)