AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 81% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Gold Coast SUNS by 22.1 vs the actual margin of 19 points. The game's 141 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 156. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
19%
Gold Coast SUNS
81%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 260-point ELO rating advantage (1644 vs 1384). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 22.1 points with a combined total of 156.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.8%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.8%
Total Points
Under 171.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WLLLL | 73.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWLL | 89.0 |
Avg Conceded
92.6
St Kilda
83.4
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-19.6
St Kilda
5.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
365.4
St Kilda
344.0
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
81%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 22 points
Predicted total: 156 · Line: -22.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.10
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.