# St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 61 – 80 Gold Coast SUNS

_Gold Coast SUNS outshine St Kilda._

Half time: 28 – 57 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 19% / Gold Coast SUNS 81% · Marvel Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Mitch Owens (6' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cooper Sharman (37' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (45'), Jack Steele (67'), Final quarter (33m 44s)Cooper Sharman (64'), Jack Sinclair (88') · Gold Coast SUNS: Ben Long (3' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Nick Holman (23'), Ben Ainsworth (27' ×2), Jed Walter (42' Tipped ⚡), Touk Miller (56'), Ben King (68' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Joel Jeffrey (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 81% | Won |
| St Kilda | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 22.1 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 61–80 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 11 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Gold Coast SUNS winning by 22.1 points with 156 total points on the board. What actually happened was a 19-point win and 141 points combined, close enough to call the read good, not close enough to call it exact. Gold Coast SUNS did the winning anyway, 80 to 61 at Marvel Stadium, and Alphr's model went three from three on its pre-match picks: the winner, correctly tipped at 81% probability, and both the margin and total landing within a handful of points of the final numbers.

Wind back through the quarters and it's obvious where the read held and where St Kilda actually found some answers. Gold Coast SUNS were away and gone early, up 26–8 at quarter time. That's an 18-point buffer built inside the opening term, roughly what the model expected for the whole match, banked before St Kilda had really got a kick. By half time it had blown out further, 57–28, with Gold Coast SUNS piling on 31 points to St Kilda's 20 in the second quarter alone. That's the same margin as three-quarters of the model's projected final gap, delivered by half time.

Then the picture changes. St Kilda outscored Gold Coast SUNS 12–2 in the third quarter, the only stretch of the match where they had the better of it, taking the three-quarter time score to 59–40. It wasn't enough to threaten the result, but it explains why the final margin came in under what the model expected. Gold Coast SUNS steadied in the last, adding 21 points to St Kilda's 21, holding the gap rather than extending it.

The underlying numbers back up that up-and-down shape. Gold Coast SUNS won the hitout count comfortably, 53 to 32, and that ruck dominance fed a clear territory advantage: 57 inside 50s to St Kilda's 45, and cleaner ball use once it got there, with 16 marks inside 50 against St Kilda's 12. Disposal efficiency told a similar story, Gold Coast SUNS at 73.0% compared to St Kilda's 70.5%, which matters when you're generating that many more entries.

St Kilda weren't without their strengths, and this is where the ledger gets interesting. They actually won the disposal count overall, 391 to 363, and edged the contested possessions too, 129 to 123, along with more marks, 101 to 95. They also read the ball in defence better, picking off 64 intercepts to Gold Coast SUNS's 56. None of that stopped the scoreboard damage, which tells you Gold Coast SUNS made better use of fewer opportunities rather than simply flooding the ball forward.

That tension lines up with what the positional ratings had flagged before the game. Gold Coast SUNS came in rated stronger everywhere but the ruck, forwards at 1045 to St Kilda's 964, defence at 1031 to 968, midfield at 1079 to 1048. St Kilda's one clear edge was in the ruck, 1058 to 967, and Cairns Kilda leant on it. It won them the third quarter and the raw possession count, but it wasn't enough to turn around a game that had already gotten away by half time.

Recent form had both sides roughly matched on paper, St Kilda averaging more points scored over their last five and Gold Coast SUNS a shade tighter defensively, but nothing there predicted a laugher through two quarters. In the end it was a game the model called correctly in outcome and close to exact in numbers, with the only real surprise being how much of the margin was built and then partly clawed back rather than delivered in a straight line.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 8 | 20 | 12 | 21 | 61 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 26 | 31 | 2 | 21 | 80 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **391** | Disposals | 363 |
| **129** | Contested poss. | 123 |
| 38 | Clearances | **40** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **57** |
| **101** | Marks | 95 |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 72 | Tackles | 72 |
| 32 | Hit-outs | **53** |
| **64** | Intercepts | 56 |
| 70.5% | Disposal eff. | **73.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 81% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Gold Coast SUNS by 22.1 vs the actual margin of 19 points. The game's 141 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 156. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.50 (edge +14.8%) — model probability 81.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 22 · Predicted total: 156

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 77 · 87 | 108 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposals | 68/g | 116/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.8/g | 23.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.9/g | 10.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 69.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 27 · 41 | 18 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 169/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.9/g | 20.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 70% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 6 | 10 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.6/g | 15.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.8% | 80.6% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.62/g (lg 1.31) +24% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.5) +2% · Forwards 4.53/g (lg 4.47) +1%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.39) +3% · Key Forwards 3.37/g (lg 3.58) -6% · Forwards 3.98/g (lg 4.47) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 28 in 10g | 28/10g (2·4·3·3·2·3·3·1·2·5) | 13/5g | 85/57g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 88% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 14 in 8g | 16/10g (2·0·2·1·3·0·1·4·2·1) | 3/1g | 35/31g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 47' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 14 in 9g | 14/10g (0·2·4·2·0·3·0·3·0·0) | 2/3g | 43/36g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 91' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 12 in 8g | 15/10g (1·2·2·2·3·1·1·0·1·2) | 6/9g | 77/73g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (2·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 13/18g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/11g | 38/101g | 34% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/42g | 22% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 21/23g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/13g | 19/75g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 75% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 42/71g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/32g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·2·0) | 2/2g | 13/21g | 55% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 37/91g | 16% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/38g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/70g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 10/53g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/101g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 10/47g | 12% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 29 in 9g | 30/10g (1·6·4·2·5·1·5·1·3·2) | 11/6g | 29/15g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' 83' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 19 in 8g | 22/10g (0·3·4·1·2·3·3·1·1·4) | 1/3g | 25/49g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 39' 52' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 11 in 9g | 11/10g (0·2·3·1·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 4/11g | 7/26g | 44% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 10 in 8g | 12/10g (2·0·1·3·1·1·3·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·4·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 2/7g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 7 in 8g | 11/10g (2·2·1·0·2·1·0·0·2·1) | 0/3g | 5/10g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (2·0·0·2·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 7/9g | 12/19g | 64% | — | 🏉 27' 50' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 5 in 9g | 7/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 7/12g | 12/23g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 7/8g | 8/18g | 38% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/15g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/15g | 30% | — | — |
| – | David Swallow | FWD | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 7/15g | 13/30g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 4/15g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 7/23g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/9g | 30% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 1 in 2g | 16/10g (3·3·2·2·1·2·2·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 3/5g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/18g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 3/14g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 27.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 36 ✗ |
| Jack Sinclair | 26.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 29 ✗ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 33 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 19.5 | $1.85 | 53% | 19 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 19.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 22 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 15 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 27.5 | $1.92 | 48% | 36 ✗ |
| John Noble | 25.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 27 ✗ |
| Touk Miller | 25.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 30 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell | 23.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 24 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 17 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders | 19.5 | $1.83 | 47% | 19 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r11-st-kilda-v-gold-coast-suns
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)