AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 81% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Gold Coast SUNS by 22.1 vs the actual margin of 19 points. The game's 141 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 156. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
19%
Gold Coast SUNS
81%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours St Kilda with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 22.1 points with a combined total of 156.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.8%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.8%
Total Points
Under 171.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | W W W L L | 91.7 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W L L L | 75.7 |
Avg Conceded
89.0
St Kilda
83.0
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-4.2
St Kilda
-4.3
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
369.9
St Kilda
361.3
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
55.9
St Kilda
56.6
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
81%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 22 points
Predicted total: 156 · Line: -22.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.10
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.