# North Melbourne v Collingwood — AFL Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 63 – 108 Collingwood

_Collingwood rally to deny North Melbourne._

Half time: 42 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 4% / Collingwood 96% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 24 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Tristan Xerri (13'), Cameron Zurhaar (33' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jacob Konstanty (41'), Jy Simpkin (53'), Paul Curtis (59' Tipped ⚡), Tom Powell (77') · Collingwood: Tim Membrey (7' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (29' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Sullivan (31'), Jack Crisp (68'), Oleg Markov (73'), Harry Perryman (75'), Will Hoskin-Elliott (79'), Brody Mihocek (92' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 96% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 4% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 37.0 predicted → 45 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 63–108 Collingwood in AFL Round 11 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne wanted the ball. Collingwood wanted it to matter. That's the difference that explains a 45-point scoreline at Marvel Stadium, Collingwood 108 to North Melbourne's 63, even though North won the raw count in almost every category that doesn't put six points on the board.

The shape of the game tells you when it turned. North Melbourne led 42-33 at half-time, still working off a patient, ball-in-hand method that had them up by nine. By three-quarter time that lead was gone, Collingwood in front 59-56. What followed in the last term wasn't close. Collingwood scored 49 points to North's seven after the last change, the kind of final quarter that turns a contest into a beating.

Look at the raw numbers and North should have won comfortably. More disposals, 371 to 346. More marks, 115 to 76. More clearances, 44 to 37, and more hit-outs too, 34 to 29. North had the ball far more often across the four quarters. They just didn't do much with it once they had it.

Collingwood's game was about precision, not volume. They hit targets at 74.2% to North's 66.7%, went inside 50 more often (58 to 48) and made those forward entries count, taking 13 marks inside 50 to North's nine. They also brought serious defensive pressure, laying 90 tackles to North's 48 and pulling in 61 intercepts to 48.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 9 | 33 | 14 | 7 | 63 |
| Collingwood | 17 | 16 | 26 | 49 | 108 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **371** | Disposals | 346 |
| **145** | Contested poss. | 118 |
| **44** | Clearances | 37 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| **115** | Marks | 76 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 48 | Tackles | **90** |
| **34** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| 48 | Intercepts | **61** |
| 66.7% | Disposal eff. | **74.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 96% probability. The predicted margin of 37.0 was reasonable against the actual 45-point result. The game's 171 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 149. Collingwood trailed 42–33 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 63–108. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.25 (edge +16.1%) — model probability 96.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 37 · Predicted total: 149

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 74 · 103 | 102 · 64 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 84/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 21.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.7/g | 11.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 67.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 31 | 19 · 32 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 141/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 19/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.9% | 66.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 26 · 16 | 10 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.9/g | 12.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 81% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Key Forwards 3.27/g (lg 3.58) -9% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.46) -9% · Midfielders 2.14/g (lg 2.39) -10%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.68/g (lg 0.5) +36% · Forwards 5.86/g (lg 4.46) +31% · Defenders 1.7/g (lg 1.31) +30%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (5·3·4·2·2·1·1·2·1·2) | 15/7g | 119/56g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 19 in 10g | 19/10g (1·4·1·1·1·1·2·2·2·4) | 7/6g | 85/59g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' 81' 85' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 18 in 7g | 22/10g (3·0·1·3·3·2·2·2·3·3) | 3/3g | 42/30g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·2·1·0·2·0·1·0·2·2) | 40/21g | 58/37g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 60% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 30/75g | 48% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 4/16g | 34/37g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/13g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 21/51g | 38% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 6/14g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 13/37g | 32% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 0/17g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.55 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 11/29g | 26% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 8/25g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/42g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 30/93g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/18g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 11/99g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/9g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Zac Fisher | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 17/44g | 16% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 23 in 10g | 23/10g (2·2·1·0·3·2·5·1·6·1) | 10/8g | 29/20g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 40' 64' 75' 65' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 16 in 8g | 19/10g (2·1·2·3·0·3·2·1·4·1) | 11/5g | 29/14g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 92' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 11 in 9g | 13/10g (2·1·4·0·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 18/12g | 167/98g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 70' 88' |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 10/12g | 23/25g | 56% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 2/10g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 4/3g | 8/8g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/24g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/10g | 10/31g | 42% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/9g | 6/17g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 6/5g | 7/11g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 4/12g | 12% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/5g | 12/14g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 15/15g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 18/35g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/13g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 10/31g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Oleg Markov | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/11g | 6% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Wil Parker | DEF | no games | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | William Hayes | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 27.5 | $1.82 | 51% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.80 | 72% | 26 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $1.81 | 57% | 30 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 21.5 | $1.94 | 48% | 16 ✓ |
| Tom Powell | 20.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 28 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 20.5 | $1.87 | 40% | 23 ✗ |
| George Wardlaw | 19.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 11 ✓ |
| Dylan Stephens | 18.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 23 ✗ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 29.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 38 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos | 26.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 31 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 21.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 16 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.79 | 85% | 29 ✗ |
| Dan Houston | 18.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 15 ✓ |
| Brayden Maynard | 16.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 2 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 15.5 | $1.88 | 44% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)