Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
64%
Sydney Swans
36%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Sydney Swans are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Melbourne carry a 61-point ELO rating advantage (1538 vs 1477). The margin model predicts Melbourne by 15.6 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.2%
Line / Spread
Melbourne -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.2%
Total Points
Over 167.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W L L L | 96.5 |
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 73.0 |
Avg Conceded
66.6
Melbourne
66.8
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
22.5
Melbourne
-2.5
Sydney Swans
Disposals
361.0
Melbourne
357.9
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
57.2
Melbourne
55.2
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Melbourne predicted to win by 16 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +15.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.43
Team Effectiveness
+0.37
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.