AFL | Round 11

alphr.com.au

MEL
Melbourne
VS
SYD
Sydney Swans
MCG • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

64%MelbourneFavourite

Melbourne

64%

Sydney Swans

36%

✨

AI Match Overview

Melbourne hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Sydney Swans are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. Sydney Swans carry a 146-point ELO rating advantage (1523 vs 1377). Recent form favours Melbourne with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 15.6 points with a combined total of 170.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Melbourne to Win @1.87

Winner ✓

Edge

+10.2%

✓

Line / Spread

Melbourne -1.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+10.2%

✓

Total Points

Over 167.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Melbourne
WWWWL
90.6
Sydney Swans
WWLLL
76.8

Avg Conceded

83.0

Melbourne

81.6

Sydney Swans

Avg Margin

7.6

Melbourne

-4.8

Sydney Swans

Disposals

382.6

Melbourne

354.4

Sydney Swans

Inside 50s

50.0

Melbourne

50.0

Sydney Swans

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Sydney Swans hold the ELO advantage (1523 vs 1377), but the market favours Melbourne (@1.87).

The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1377Overall1523
SYD
ELO difference: -146 in favour of Sydney Swans

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1210Midfield1209
Best: 1210EvenBest: 1289
1117Forwards967
Best: 1440MEL +150Best: 1135
1247Defence1211
Best: 1357MEL +36Best: 1374
1471Ruck1220
Best: 1471MEL +251Best: 1440

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
SYD
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
90.6pts
Avg Score
76.8pts
83.0pts
Avg Conceded
81.6pts
7.6pts
Avg Margin
-4.8pts
382.6
Disposals
354.4
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
57.8
Tackles
52.4
41.4
Clearances
37.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Swans
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
—
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Melbourne
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Melbourne
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Melbourne
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Melbourne
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
—

Model Confidence

64%

Melbourne predicted to win by 16 points

Predicted total: 170 · Line: +15.6

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

+0.43

Team Effectiveness

+0.37

14
Elite
4
Hard Worker
3
Efficient
2
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

3/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props